MLB Playoff Picks: MLB Division Series Betting Preview

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Picks: MLB Division Series Betting Preview

Underdogs took three of the four Wild Card Series, with only the Guardians advancing among the teams favored by the books. Just how many underdogs to pick in the Division Series is the primary question I'll try to answer today. On the one hand, playoff baseball is always more random than we expect it to be. Even in an era that features two perennial favorites in the Dodgers and Astros, we've seen eight different champions in the last eight years. Two of the last three World Series winners, the 2021 Braves and 2019 Nationals, had some of the longest odds at the start of the postseason.

On the other hand, the previous system only required teams stuck in the Wild Card Round to use up one game's worth of their best pitchers. That didn't prove an insurmountable hurdle, as the last 10 teams to win a Wild Card Game went a respectable 4-6 in the Division Series. This year, however, those teams had to play two or even three games just to make it this far. That means all four will be clear underdogs in Game 1, as they'll be turning to their third or fourth starters against an ace who will be backed by a fully-rested bullpen. We've never seen an advantage quite like this for the higher seeds, but will it be enough to overcome the inevitable small-sample randomness of playoff baseball? 

I'll provide my pick for each series below alongside a bonus bet for all four matchups. You'll also find projected pitchers and key stats for each team, using park-adjusted ERA- for pitchers and wRC+ for hitters.

Division Series Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)

• Atlanta Braves -185; Philadelphia Phillies +155
• Houston Astros -220; Seattle Mariners +185
• New York Yankees -210; Cleveland Guardians +175
• Los Angeles Dodgers -210; San Diego Padres +175

Philadelphia Phillies (87-75) at Atlanta Braves (101-61)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

LHP Ranger Suarez (3.65 ERA, 4.11 SIERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (2.48 ERA, 3.31 SIERA)

RHP Zack Wheeler (2.82 ERA, 3.19 SIERA) vs. RHP Kyle Wright (3.19 ERA, 3.48 SIERA)

RHP Aaron Nola (3.25 ERA, 2.80 SIERA) vs. RHP Charlie Morton (4.34 ERA, 3.48 SIERA)

LHP Bailey Falter (3.86 ERA, 3.94 SIERA) vs. RHP Spencer Strider (2.67 ERA, 2.41 SIERA)

LHP Ranger Suarez (3.65 ERA, 4.11 SIERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (2.48 ERA, 3.31 SIERA)

Series Preview

I picked the Phillies to beat the Cardinals in two games thanks to the strength of their two aces, Wheeler and Nola, and that's exactly how it played out. That pair combined to scatter six hits across 13 scoreless innings, and they needed to be that good for the Phillies to have a chance, as the Philadelphia bullpen posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP across the two games. Converted starter Zach Eflin theoretically makes that a deeper unit, and manager Rob Thomson did turn to him to finish out both games, but he allowed a total of five baserunners and one run across his two frames, hardly inspiring confidence. It's going to be down to Wheeler and Nola again if the Phillies are to have a chance in this one.

The problem for the underdogs is that it isn't clear they have the advantage even in their area of greatest strength. That depends in large part on the health of Spencer Strider (oblique), which is still up in the air as of this writing. He emerged as one of the best starters in the league as a rookie, cruising to a 2.67 ERA and an outstanding 38.3 percent strikeout rate, but his role may be diminished this series if he's available at all. Without him, Atlanta's rotation may be second-best, though Fried and Wright don't trail the Phillies' duo by a massive margin. Both teams have fairly strong lineups, even with talismans Bryce Harper and Ronald Acuna Jr. in somewhat reduced form due to injuries, though Atlanta may have the slight advantage there. The defending champions' clearest advantage is in the bullpen, however, where a deep group anchored by Kenley Jansen and Raisel Iglesias gives Atlanta a clear edge over the Phillies' very shaky unit.

Series Pick: Braves 3-2, +300 AND Braves 3-1, +330 (DraftKings)

I'd pick Atlanta to win this series at even money, as I'm sure most of you would, but I just can't get excited about a payout of -185 given the randomness that comes with small-sample baseball. A bet on the Phillies (which is as good as +174 at Caesars Sportsbook) is defensible, but it's tough to stand firmly behind that given Atlanta's particularly large advantage in the bullpen. Count this as a vote of no confidence in Zach Eflin, Shutdown Closer, I guess. If you want to bet on Atlanta but prefer a better payout while doing so, consider putting half a unit on each of these series score predictions. You'll be giving up the chances of winning something should the defending champions pull off the sweep, but I'd consider that unlikely given that at least one of Wheeler or Nola should be able to win a game. If Atlanta wins in four or five games, however, you'll win at least one unit rather than the merely 0.54 units you'd take home if you bet them straight up.

Bonus Bet: Total Number of Games: 5, +160 (Caesars)

On the whole, the oddsmakers consider this to be the series most likely to go the distance, and I agree with that conclusion. No other underdog can boast a one-two punch as strong as Wheeler and Nola, and the simplest path to this prop hitting involves those two winning their games while Atlanta takes the other three. If the defending champions do manage to beat one of the Phillies' aces, the Phillies will have to pull off an upset in Game 1 or Game 4, with the latter looking like a distinct possibility if it turns out Strider is unable to go.

Seattle Mariners (90-72) at Houston Astros (106-56)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

RHP Logan Gilbert (3.20 ERA, 3.84 SIERA) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (1.75 ERA, 3.09 SIERA)

RHP Luis Castillo (2.99 ERA, 3.35 SIERA) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (2.82 ERA, 3.14 SIERA)

LHP Robbie Ray (3.71 ERA, 3.50 SIERA) vs. RHP Lance McCullers (2.27 ERA, 3.96 SIERA)

RHP George Kirby (3.39 ERA, 3.32 SIERA) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (1.75 ERA, 3.09 SIERA)

RHP Logan Gilbert (3.20 ERA, 3.84 SIERA) vs. RHP Cristian Javier (2.54 ERA, 3.14 SIERA)

Series Preview

As with the Phillies above, the Mariners weren't content with merely ending their long playoff drought but instead went into Toronto and sent the hosts home after just two games. A dominant outing from Castillo secured Game 1, while a late burst of offense turned around a seven-run deficit to win Game 2. Those results highlighted what a well-rounded team the Mariners have. The team's rotation looks like a clear weakness judging by the table above, but their mediocre ranking includes just 11 starts from Castillo, whose arrival gave the team four trustworthy starters. Additionally, their deep bullpen reduces the pressure on that quartet, with Andres Munoz (2.49 ERA, 1.75 SIERA) emerging as one of the best relievers in the game.

The problem for Seattle is that the Astros are just as well-rounded and rank better in every area. Houston isn't completely dominant on the offensive side compared to some of the other playoff teams, though their sixth-place finish in team wRC+ hardly counts as a weakness. Yordan Alvarez (185 wRC+) finished second among qualified hitters in that category, while Jose Altuve (164 wRC+) finished fourth. On the pitching side, no one else in the AL is the Astros' equal. Valdez's 2.82 ERA ranks last among their four projected starters but would lead all Mariners starting pitchers, despite the fact that Seattle plays in the more pitcher-friendly park. The Astros even have the statistical edge in the bullpen, especially with Ryan Pressly posting a 48.6 percent strikeout rate and 1.86 ERA over his last 10 outings. 

Series Pick: Mariners +200 (Caesars)

We have a similar dilemma here as in the Phillies-Braves series. It's hard to pick against the Astros, but does any team really have greater than 2-in-3 chances of winning a five-game series, as the odds suggest? Per the FanGraphs Playoff Odds, my favorite source for a projection-based take on things, we shouldn't see any team as even 60 percent likely to get through the round. These series may feel long compared to the very brief Wild Card round, but five games is still short in baseball so I'm happy taking a very competent underdog here, even if I don't disagree that they should in fact be clear underdogs. What makes them a more palatable bet than the Phillies is their strong relief corps, something Philadelphia clearly lacks. Additionally, the Seattle bullpen skews heavily right-handed, which could be an advantage against a team that crushed southpaws but was merely good against righties.

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Bonus Bet: Jose Altuve Most Home Runs in Round, +2500 (DraftKings)

Altuve is the active postseason home run leader with 23 for his career, trailing only Manny Ramirez's 29 for the all-time lead. He's hit exactly five in each of the last three postseasons, giving him a chance to tie Ramirez by the end of this year's tournament. He's guaranteed at least two games in front of the Crawford Boxes this series, and it could be three if the matchup goes the distance, something it has a real chance to do. The Mariners' bullpen is a worry, but while their rotation is perfectly acceptable, it's less intimidating than several of the other remaining units, so I'm happy to take the big potential payout on Altuve simply continuing to do what he's done throughout his playoff career. 

Cleveland Guardians (92-70) at New York Yankees (99-63)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

RHP Cal Quantrill (3.38 ERA, 4.50 SIERA) vs. RHP Gerrit Cole (3.50 ERA, 2.77 SIERA)

RHP Shane Bieber (2.88 ERA, 3.21 SIERA) vs. LHP Nestor Cortes (2.44 ERA, 3.48 SIERA)

RHP Triston McKenzie (2.96 ERA, 3.58 SIERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (3.18 ERA, 3.37 SIERA)

RHP Cal Quantrill (3.38 ERA, 4.50 SIERA) vs. RHP Gerrit Cole (3.50 ERA, 2.77 SIERA)

RHP Zach Plesac (4.31 ERA, 4.46 SIERA) vs. RHP Frankie Montas (4.05 ERA, 3.74 SIERA)

Series Preview

Cleveland pulled off a pitching masterclass to beat the Rays in the Wild Card Series, with Bieber and McKenzie combining to allow one run on five hits across 13.2 innings and seven different relievers combining to throw 10.1 scoreless frames with just four hits allowed. The Guardians' arms needed to be that good, as their bats fell almost completely silent, pushing across just three runs in 24 innings. The pitchers will need to be the heroes again if Cleveland's run is to continue, as they have only bottom-half lineup among the remaining teams. The Guardians struck out less often than any other team, but they finished second-last in homers, beating only the Tigers. While old-school fans analysts might appreciate that approach, it's not the path to success in modern baseball, especially in the postseason, where the quality of pitching goes up and makes it that much harder to string singles together.

The Yankees are mediocre at stringing singles together, ranking 15th in team batting average, but they hit more homers than any other team in the league, with Aaron Judge accounting for 62 of them in a season in which he finished with the highest fWAR (11.4) of any player not named Barry Bonds since Mickey Mantle produced that same mark in 1957. The Guardians will have to find an answer for him somehow, but he's far from alone on this excellent and well-balanced team. No other team ranks in the top five of each of the categories listed above, and it's hard to find a major flaw with this team. One potential weakness could be the bullpen, however, which ranked quite highly but which will be without Michael King (2.29 ERA) and Ron Marinaccio (2.05 ERA) due to injury. Clay Holmes will be back from a shoulder issue, though his ERA slipped to 4.84 since the break after a dominant first half. The Yankees may have to lean heavily on their starting pitching, though that should be a manageable task for the league's fourth-ranked unit.

Series Pick: Guardians 3-2, +550 AND Guardians 3-1, +600 (DraftKings)

Anybody else getting a sense of déjà vu? Yet again, we have a team that deservedly looks to be the clear favorite, but yet again, the extent to which the books think that team should be favored is potentially overstating things. This is the toughest of the four series to predict for me, as I'd put the Guardians in a tier by themselves at the bottom of the remaining teams thanks to their very weak lineup, but I'd have to fight against my inclination to trust the projections as well as my distaste for small payouts to side with the Yankees. Ultimately, I've decided to repeat a tactic I used in the Phillies-Braves series above. I can't see a world in which the Guardians sweep, but I'll bet on their healthier bullpen to pull off the upset over a longer series. If the Guardians manage to win in four or five games, you'll return at least 2.25 units with a half-unit bet on each of these outcomes, beating the 1.75-unit payout you'd receive by merely betting their +175 series odds.

Bonus Bet: Yankees 3-0, +375 (Caesars)

Yes, my primary bet is to take the big potential payout that comes with a Guardians' win, but if I were determined to bet on the Yankees, this is how I'd do it. Cleveland's lineup is easily the weakest among the remaining teams, and there's a real chance they simply get rolled. The only matchup where I'd prefer the Guardians' starting pitcher is in Game 2, but even there, it's not so clear, as Cleveland's particularly poor performance against lefties gives a big boost to Cortes. If the series stretches into four or five games, the Guardians' deeper bullpen becomes a more significant advantage over the Yankees' injury-plagued unit, but there's a real chance the Yankees don't let things get that far, and you'll be getting quite a good payout if that happens.

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San Diego Padres (89-73) at Los Angeles Dodgers (111-51)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

RHP Mike Clevinger (4.33 ERA, 4.49 SIERA) vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw (2.28 ERA, 2.98 SIERA)

RHP Yu Darvish (3.10 ERA, 3.39 SIERA) vs. LHP Julio Urias (2.16 ERA, 3.66 SIERA)

RHP Joe Musgrove (2.93 ERA, 3.45 SIERA) vs. RHP Tony Gonsolin (2.14 ERA, 3.74 SIERA)

LHP Blake Snell (3.38 ERA, 3.20 SIERA) vs. LHP Tyler Anderson (2.57 ERA, 4.04 SIERA)

RHP Mike Clevinger  (4.33 ERA, 4.49 SIERA) vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw (2.28 ERA, 2.98 SIERA)

Series Preview

The Padres were handed the toughest assignment of any team in the previous round, but they got the job done, toppling the 101-win Mets in three games. Their reward: a matchup against a team that won five more games than anyone else in baseball. If the Padres get to the NLCS, they'll certainly have earned it. As the numbers above suggest, the Dodgers are clearly the best team in baseball, with their lineup, rotation and bullpen all leading their respective categories. On the offensive side, they hit the fifth-most homers in the league while finishing fourth in batting average, with five different regulars posting a wRC+ of 123 or better. They'll send out four starters who posted ERAs of 2.57 or better, and they'll back them up with a bullpen that led the league even in a shaky season for Craig Kimbrel (3.75 ERA), who's since lost his ninth-inning role.

That's not to say that the Padres have no chance, but they'll have to play a lot better than the team that lost the season series, 14-5, falling by an average score of 5.7 to 2.5. There's a meaningful disconnect between the team's perceived talent and its thoroughly mediocre rankings listed above. Some of that comes from the fact that Juan Soto and Josh Hader only played about a third of the season in San Diego, and neither was at their best over that stretch. Those two should help shrink the talent gap between these two teams, and the trio of Darvish, Snell and Musgrove shouldn't be significant underdogs against any opponent.

Series Pick: Dodgers -1.5 games, +130 (DraftKings)

Even in a short series, I simply can't look away from the team that had the best lineup, best rotation and best bullpen in the regular season. The payout on a straight-up Dodgers bet is poor everywhere, but we actually get a pretty good deal if we're confident that the favorites will get the job done in fewer than five games. One reason I like this bet is that I consider the Dodgers to be easily the biggest favorite among all four Game Ones. Mike Clevinger simply hasn't had it this season and has been particularly poor down the stretch, posting a 5.67 ERA and a 13.5 percent strikeout rate across his last 11 outings. If we spot the Dodgers Game 1, they'll only have to win two of the next three for this one to land.

Bonus Bet: Padres to Win the World Series, +1100 (FanDuel)

We'll go with another pair of contradictory bets to close this article. The Padres are clear underdogs this round, and I agree with the books that they're more likely than not to be knocked out. If they can get past the Dodgers, however, they'll have a very respectable chance to win it all, for one simple reason: they'll no longer have to face the Dodgers. They'll also only have to contend with at most one of the AL juggernauts, the Astros and Yankees, and there's an outside chance they won't have to face either of them. If you have to face the Dodgers at one point to win it all, you'd prefer for that to come in a five-game series, and the Padres are the only ones who will get that benefit. Their +1100 odds to win it all imply that they have an 8.3 percent chance of doing so, well below the 11.9 percent chance that the FanGraphs Playoff Odds give them.

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