MLB Playoff Best Bets: Staff Picks for ALDS and NLDS

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Published on October 11, 2022

MLB Playoff Betting: Staff Picks and Best Bets for ALDS and NLDS

The MLB playoffs are heating up and our MLB betting experts have lined up their best bets for the ALDS and NLDS, along with some futures bets to target. Be sure to check out Erik Halterman's Division Series betting preview as well.

Michael Rathburn's MLB Playoff Bets

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

I like the Astros in this series as they should win both games in Houston, and then game 4 with Justin Verlander against George Kirby. The Mariners did get a bit lucky against the Blue Jays in Game 2, and the Astros are a veteran laded team with sights on the World Series. The Mariners are more built to win at home, but the matchup with the Astros is a bad one.

MLB Best Bets for Mariners vs. Astros

Astros to win the series for 2.25 RW bucks (FanDuel -225)

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees

I really like how things line up for the Guardians in this series. I know history says the Yankees have owned them, and they did take the season series 5-1. But if I am going to pick one upset in the divisional round this is the one I feel best about. There is not a huge amount of value taking the Guardians to win the series at +182, but I love the odds on them winning 3-2 because I think that is the only way they can.

In a short series, the Yankees starting pitching depth is neutralized and the Guardians' lack of depth is not as exposed. The Guardians can win close low-scoring games and there will be some in this series especially in Cleveland with colder temperatures. The Yankees are not built to win those types of games, but I can see them winning two blowouts, likely in the Gerrit Cole starts.

I think the Guardians' bullpen, defense, and plate discipline will give the Yankees fits and they will find a way to win this series in 5 games.

MLB Best Bets for Guardians vs. Yankees

Guardians win series 3-2 for 0.25 RW buck (FanDuel +550)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

When you have two stud starting pitchers like Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it can cover up some warts and the Phillies have them in terms of defense and bullpen. I like the Braves to win Game 1, 3, and 5 based on the starting pitcher matchups. I think they will be able to get to Ranger Suarez in both starts and Kyle Gibson, while the Phillies win the Nola/Wheeler starts. The Braves get a big edge here with the bye and being able to line up their starting rotation.

MLB Best Bets for Phillies vs Braves

Braves to win series for 1.86 RW buck (FanDuel -186)

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San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have owned the Padres going 14-5 with a 109-47 run differential and I think it continues. The Padres are having to go with Mike Clevinger in Game 1 who had a 6.52 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his last 6 starts. He had a 9.69 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 3 starts against the Dodgers. I can see this being a 3-0 sweep for the Dodgers and will take that bet.

MLB Best Bets for Padres vs Dodgers

Dodgers win series 3-0 for 0.5 RW buck (BetMGM +375)

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Additional Bets - I am sticking with my Braves/Astros WS pick from the All-Star Break, but also hedging in case one of them does not make it.

Astros to win ALCS for 0.5 RW buck (BetMGM +150)
Braves to win NLCS for 0.5 RW buck (BetMGM +200)
Astros to beat Braves for 0.25 RW buck (BetMGM +1100)
Braves to beat Astros for 0.25 RW buck (BetMGM +1200)
Astros win WS for 0.5 RW buck (BetMGM +350)
Braves win WS for 0.5 RW buck (BetMGM +500)
Dodgers win WS for 0.5 RW buck (BetMGM +275)

MLB Divisional Series Best Bets Recap

Astros to win the series for 2.25 RW bucks (FanDuel -225)
Guardians win series 3-2 for 0.25 RW buck (FanDuel +550)
Braves to win series for 1.86 RW buck (FanDuel -186)
Dodgers win series 3-0 for 0.75 RW buck (BetMGM +375)

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Mike Barner's Best Bets

We've made it through the Wild Card round of the playoffs, leaving us with eight remaining teams that are vying for a World Series title. Let's dig into the betting options for the rest of the playoffs, and highlight some wagers that could prove to be profitable.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners : Astros to win series (-215 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit

The Astros had the best record in the American League during the regular season, which earned them a first-round bye. They will be well rested for their Division Series matchup with the Mariners, who made quick work of the Blue Jays by winning both of the first two games in the Wild Card round. Their second win was a crazy one, coming back from an 8-1 deficit to win 10-9.

The Astros are the heavy favorites in this series, and they should be. During the regular season, they went 11-7 against the Mariners. They were also dominant at home this season, recording a 55-26 record there. With Justin Verlander leading what is arguably the deepest rotation in baseball, the Mariners will have a difficult time making this a competitive series.

Houston Astros to win the American League (+145 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit

With the expectation that the Astros dispatch the Mariners, that means they will be lined up to face either the Yankees or the Guardians for the American League crown. If the Guardians somehow pull off the upset over the Yankees, it would be even more shocking to see them beat the Astros. They don't have a great lineup, ranking middle of the pack this season in both runs scored and OPS. Facing the vaunted Astros' rotation would make it even more difficult for them to produce runs.

If the Astros face the Yankees, they also have a significant advantage. The Yankees have several hitters who strike out a lot, and their bullpen is not in great shape right now. They have had the Yankees' number in recent years during the postseason, and they went 4-2 against them during the regular season this year. Look for the Astros to at least advance to the World Series.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies : Braves to win series (-180 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit

It looked like the Mets had the NL East sewn up early in the season, but their late collapse, combined with the Braves coming on strong, ultimately led to them losing the lead and falling into one of the Wild Card spots. The Braves finished with 101 victories, which was a great encore coming off of their World Series crown in 2021.

The Phillies also secured a Wild Card berth, and then swept the Cardinals out of the first round. The Braves went 11-8 against the Phillies during the regular season, and they are hopeful to have Spencer Strider (oblique) back in time for this series. Getting him back would be a huge boost, given that he had a 1.83 FIP and a 38.3 percent strikeout rate during the regular season. As long as he does indeed return, look for the Braves to carry over their momentum from the regular season to help them at least advance past this round.

MLB Playoff Picks Recap

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: Astros to win series (-215 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Houston Astros to win the American League (+145 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Braves to win series (-180 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit

Visit RotoWire all season long for exclusive sports betting picks from our group of handicappers with their expert MLB picks each day of the campaign. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds and available MLB player props, so we have an easy-to-use MLB odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.

Before you place your bets, be sure to use all of RotoWire's MLB resources, like our MLB Lineups page, MLB Weather page, and the best batter vs. pitcher stats.