This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Nationals vs. Giants
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Want to have some fun with arbitrary endpoints? In nine starts between June 13th and July 25th, Nationals starter Patrick Corbin went 1-3 but pitched to a perfectly cromulent 3.88 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with a roughly league average 22.3 percent strikeout rate. Pitching like that keeps the Nats in games. And then it all came unglued in his last start as the lefty yielded 10 runs on 13 hits in three innings in his revenge return to Arizona.
Corbin last pitched consistently well for the Nats in 2019. Not so coincidentally, he remains the lone man standing from that World Series championship team. He has an ugly 5.88 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, though his 4.58 SIERA suggests more bad than hideous.
Logan Webb gets the nod for the Giants. Within those same arbitrary endpoints as Corbin, he also went just 1-3, but with a worse 5.23 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. While Corbin got shelled in his last outing, Webb pitched a complete game shutout with five hits, one walk and six strikeouts. Like Corbin, he makes every start. Unlike Corbin, he resides firmly in his prime as one of the better pitchers in MLB. Webb has a 3.49 ERA and 1.27, his worst levels since 2020, thanks in no small part to his higher-than-normal .327 BABIP. Webb only carries a 20.2 percent strikeout rate and relies on inducing dollops of grounders, so as such he can have his occasional clunkers when the worm burners find holes.
BEST MLB BET TODAY
Nationals ML +146 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Why fight a bad pitching matchup? Well, the Nats get pretty nice plus-money odds here and I am not confident backing the Giants as favorites as they still actually have to outhit the other team. They have a 103 wRC+ over the last month but have traded Jorge Soler, who was pretty hot during that stretch and are likely without Heliot Ramos. The All-Star has led the Giants' offense overall this season but has slowed a bit lately with just a .293 wOBA in the past 30 days.
Nats bats have hit a shade better in the past month at 107 wRC+, though that includes a couple of good hitters no longer there in Lane Thomas and Jesse Winker.
And also some betting trends point against the Giants.
As per VSiN, San Francisco has gone 30-35 at night with a -12% return on investment (ROI), 14-21/-25.6% ROI vs. lefty starters, 22-33/-17.5% ROI on the road and 36-31/-5.9% ROI as a favorite.
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Bonus Half-Unit Picks
Diamondbacks at Guardians Over 4.5 Runs F5 (-113 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Lefty Logan Allen returns for the Guardians tonight after a stint in the minors. Not to be confused with former Guardian lefty Logan Allen, who pitched for the Diamondbacks earlier this year but has since been demoted.
Diamondbacks first five innings (F5) overs have gone 26-14 with a 24.8% ROI when they face a lefty starter. Meanwhile, Guardians F5 overs are 33-17/25.7% ROI at home and 44-32/+10.4% when they face righty starters.
Both teams also light up F5 overs at night – 43-32/+9.5% ROI for the Diamondbacks and 40-30/+9.0% ROI for the Guardians.
Cardinals ML +100 vs. Mets (BetRivers)
It is a one-game series here as these two teams make up an early-season rainout. The Mets travel from Los Angeles for the late afternoon game in St. Louis and then immediately leave for Denver. This is just a strange spot for the Mets and they do not play well during daylight with a 20-28 record and -20.4% ROI.
