This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks: Expert MLB Props for Tuesday, August 20
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Philadelphia Phillies 
at Atlanta Braves 
Atlanta has seen their share of disappointments, from Sherman's March (too soon?) to the Super Bowl Falcons blowing a 28-3 lead (definitely not too soon) to the Braves' 2024 health woes.
I am sure some MLB team somewhere has had worse injury luck than the 2024 Braves. But as measured by the pre-season NFBC Main Event average draft position (ADP), it feels like no team can come close to matching this. Atlanta had six players with ADPs in the top 30 and two first-rounders. Ronald Acuna Jr. (1.05) and Spencer Strider (2.23) missed most of the season and will not return. Michael Harris (28.42) just returned from the 60-day injured list (IL) while Ozzie Albies (28.28) has played just 90 games and may or may not return. And now they lose Austin Riley (20.70) for likely the remainder of at least the regular season. Congrats, Matt Olson (17.4), on being the last premium pick standing.
Even when healthier, the 2024 Braves did not hit nearly as well as their 2023 version. Olson smashed 54 homers in 2023 but only has 21 thus far in 2024. His wOBA has dipped from .413 to .318. The power has picked up somewhat lately as eight of his homers have come since the All-Star break, but his batting average remains an identical .230 vs. a career-high .283 last season.
Marcell Ozuna remains the one Brave consistently mashing. He carries a .309/.381/.592 with 36 homers and 93 RBI. He would get serious MVP consideration in a world where Shohei Ohtani still played in the American League and/or Ozuna did more than DH (not to mention his off-the-field awfulness).
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Beyond Olson and Ozuna, nothing too scary remains in Atlanta's lineup. Jorge Soler has hit well in the three weeks since coming over from the Giants. Overall, however, he has a .244 batting average with just 16 homers compared to 36 last season. Come to think of it, he fits in perfectly. Harris likewise is batting .252 vs. .293 in 2024 with a wOBA drop from .345 to an ugly .290.
The Braves face off against Zack Wheeler, perhaps the top overall starting pitcher in MLB these days. The Phillies ace missed two full seasons early in his career with the Mets but looked the part of an emerging star as his form returned in 2018 and 2019 as free agency approached. He wanted to stay in Flushing as his wife hailed from the area but, alas, the Mets' old, cheap owners low-balled him. Am I still bitter? Yes, but I digress. Wheeler has pitched to a 2.72 ERA, third in MLB among qualified pitchers, with a .98 WHIP that ranks fourth. He has 162 strikeouts in 148.2 innings and has become a model of consistency. He has gone at least six innings in 18 of his 24 starts and allowed more than three earned runs on just four occasions.
Zack Wheeler 7+ Strikeouts (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
As we noted recently, the Braves strike out a lot, even when healthier. Since the All-Star break, they rank third overall with a strikeout rate of 26.2 percent. Ozuna (28.6 percent) and Olson (26.4 percent) do not help there. Harris only recently returned and he might improve on that number, but he has seven strikeouts in his 24 plate appearances since coming back.
Based on all these numbers, and Wheeler's 6.75 strikeouts per start, I come up with a projection of just under 7.8 strikeouts. Even if I reduce it to 7.5, the good old Poisson Calculator spits out a 62 percent chance he gets to at least seven strikeouts, whereas the odds imply a 55 percent chance. Let's roll with the Wheeler strikeout over.
Zack Wheeler Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Will stick with the theme here. As long as I am playing for him to roll through the hobbled Braves, how about this play on Wheeler pitching into the 7th and getting at least one out? He has accomplished this in 11 of his 24 starts, and 10 of his last 20 once he got up to his normal pitch counts. It hedges the first wager ever so slightly as the more K's might bump up his pitch count.
