This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB MVP Odds and Picks
Are the MVP races over before they even start?
In the NL, Shohei Ohtani became the 1st member of the MLB 50-50 club in 2024, clubbing 54 homers and swiping 59 bags on top of hitting .310 with 134 runs and 130 RBI. And he will return to pitching as of this May.
Over in the AL, Aaron Judge matched or beat Shohei in all but steals, hitting .322 with 58 homers, 122 runs and 144 RBI's. Ohtani enters as a big +170 favorite in the NL MVP odds over at DraftKings, vs. Juan Soto next at +550. In the AL MVP odds, Judge sits at +310 with Bobby Witt Jr. not too far behind at +410. It is tough to make a case against any of those four, Ohtani especially. But sometimes defending MVP's in all sports almost face a higher bar to repeat (Michael Jordan losing the 1993 MVP to Charles Barkley to name one).
Ohtani most likely does not match his insane 2024 stat line but is probably still the best player in the league. And yet the voters could go with someone else having a big year. Hey, it could happen!
Here are a few longer odds plays to consider.
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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NL MVP Odds
- Shohei Ohtani (+170)
- Juan Soto (+550)
- Fernando Tatis (+800)
- Mookie Betts (+1200)
- Bryce Harper (+1400)
- Kyle Tucker (+1500)
- Ronald Acuna (+1600)
- Francisco Lindor (+1600)
- Elly De La Cruz (+2000)
- Freddie Freeman (+2200)
NL MVP Picks
Bryce Harper +1400
The two-time winner of this award (2015 and 2021) just keeps chugging along, somehow a bit under the radar. That's despite a first-ballot Hall of Fame career while playing on an excellent team in a huge market. He popped out another excellent season in 2024, slashing .285/.373/.525 with 30 homers and a 145 wRC+ that actually topped his career 142 level.
He has battled injuries throughout his career, however. The 145 games he played last season marked his highest total since the 159 he suited up for in 2019. So the play here is really more that he stays healthy and plays 155 games or so and just has yet another typical season.
Corbin Carroll +2200
The D-Backs star came into 2024 on the heels of a late 2023 season shoulder injury. Whether it impacted him or not we don't know, but as of June 30th he had just a .213 AVG with 2 homers. From July 1st on however he turned it on big time, with 20 homers, 21 steals and 74 runs, though he only bumped his AVG. to .250. The bull case here is obviously that he can maintain some facsimile of his 2nd half surge for a full season.
Jackson Chourio +3500
What can't Jackson Chourio do? Drink legally, he first turns 21 on March 11th. What can he do? Everything. After a slow start to his rookie season, he slashed .303/.358/.525 from June 1st on, with 16 homers and 15 steals. We are talking strictly potential upside here, and he could pop into the 40-40 range.
Stay up to date on all the MLB player futures this season as odds change and opportunities arise.
AL MVP Odds
- Aaron Judge (+310)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (+450)
- Yordan Alvarez (+600)
- Gunnar Henderson (+750)
- Jose Ramirez (+1500)
- Corey Seager (+1600)
- Mike Trout (+1600)
- Vlaimir Guerrero (+1700)
- Julio Rodriguez (+2000)
- Rafael Devers (+2500)
AL MVP Picks
Gunnar Henderson +750
Gunnar had a bit of a reverse trajectory to Carroll last season, though not quite as extreme. Pre-July he played like an MVP with 26 homers, 13 steals, and a .288/.384/.604 triple slash. From July 1st on he hit .273/.342/.447 with 11 homers -- solid but nowhere near elite. He's still just 23 and it's not tough to envision continued growth into the Bobby Witt Jr. SS stratosphere.
Keep an eye on Henderson's status in the short term as a mild intercostal strain has put his Opening Day status into question.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1700
Vlad and Yordan Alvarez are similarly excellent hitters that rate just a shade below Judge. Yordan plays for a better team, but at +600 he carries a significantly higher price tag than Vlad, plus he will mostly DH and misses time every year.
Vlad has played at least 156 games in every full season since 2019. He was as good as ever in 2024, slashing .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers. And he has every reason in the world to go full throttle in 2024 as he enters his free-agent walk year.
AL MVP Longshot Bet
Wyatt Langford +4000
Like Chourio, we have a huge pedigree 2nd year player here who started slow then picked it up down the stretch. It was not quite Chourio level, but Langford did hit .263/.351/.480 from August 1st on, with 10 homers and 10 steals in about a ⅓ of a season. He looks slotted in to bat 3rd in a Rangers lineup that should be much improved in 2025, so expect the counting stats to follow. Its a leap of faith here, but a nice payoff at +4000
MLB MVP Best Bets
- Bryce Harper +1400
- Corbin Carroll +2200
- Jackson Chourio +3500
- Gunnar Henderson +750
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1700
- Wyatt Langford +4000
