This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks: Expert MLB Props for Tuesday, August 27
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Texas Rangers 
at Chicago White Sox 
There is bad and then there is 2024 White Sox bad. They have already lost 101 games and we have not even hit September yet. They will not make the playoffs this season (shocker) as they already have an "E" in the standings. They sit 16.5 games behind the Marlins for that coveted 29th spot in MLB. Chicago will need to go 12-18 to avoid breaking the 1962 Mets record of 120 losses in a season. Playing .400 ball will require quite an uptick for a team winning 23.4% of their games so far.
The Rangers carry only a -140 price tag on today's game. Tempting, right? Well, yes, but the Rangers have played pretty poorly this season as well, though just normal "meh" as opposed to banana in the tailpipe hideous. And the White Sox have the better pitcher going, at least early on.
Garrett Crochet starts for the White Sox, and the converted starter has pitched as well as anyone in MLB. He comes in with a 3.64 ERA, which understates his true effectiveness, as he carries a 2.81 xERA, 2.54 xFIP and 2.65 SIERA with a monstrous 180 strikeouts in just 128.2 innings. His 34.2 strikeout rate and 16 percent SwStr rate would lead MLB if he pitched enough innings to qualify. And, there, of course, lies the rub. He does not throw full outings anymore. The White Sox have not had anything to play for since Opening Day. The 25-year-old Crochet had pitched just 73 innings total in four MLB seasons heading into today (and just 12.1 minor league innings). They have not shut down Crochet (yet) but they also have not run him out there for more than four innings since June 30th.
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The Picks
Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
As great as Crochet pitched early on, he has perhaps lost a bit of focus going partial outings for such an impossibly terrible team. Since June 30th, he has a 5.93 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He might have a bit of bad BABIP luck (it is .386) but more likely just a bad defense. Chicago ranks last in MLB in Statcast Fielding Runs Value.
Who better to take advantage here than Seager, the Rangers' best hitter? He has hit .270 on the year with a .502 slugging rate and 225 total bases in 117 games. He has picked up the pace of late a bit, slugging .613 since July 24th, with 11 homers and 73 total bases in 29 games. He should face a slumping Crochet twice then very likely get at least three plate appearances vs. the White Sox's bullpen, which, unsurprisingly, rates as the second-worst in baseball. As a group, they pitch to a 5.02 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. It also helps that the Rangers are on the road and will bat in the ninth.
Andrew Heaney Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Rangers' starter defines inconsistency, both from season to season and start to start. He has just a 4-13 record this year, but his 4.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP suggest more like league-average results. What he has done fairly well over his career is strike batters out, at least on a K/9 basis. He has a 9.53 K/9 in his career and a 9.12 mark this season with a 23.5 percent strikeout rate.
We need him to go five innings here and record six strikeouts. He has pitched 129.1 innings in 25 starts and faces the worst offense in MLB, so he should make it into the sixth, at least. The strikeouts will hopefully follow. Heaney has whiffed eight in each of his last two starts in just 9.1 total innings with a combined 18.7 percent SwStr rate. Yes, of course, that is a really small sample size. He faces a White Sox team that has a 25.6 strikeout rate since the All-Star break.
