This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
FanDuel's Tuesday main slate is a massive 12-gamer with a typical evening 7:10 p.m. EDT first pitch. San Francisco is without a listed starter, giving us "just" 23 arms to sort through, four of which are priced in five figures with six more coming in at $9,100 or greater. Three teams (Royals, Dodgers, Astros) enter as heavy favorites to win at -200 or greater, and the highest run totals are at 9.5 runs, with both Royals-Marlins and Dodgers-White Sox sitting at this number. It's safe to say we expect those favorites to score a lot. Padres-Nationals is our low run total at 7.5.
Rain could be a real factor in Kansas City unfortunately. I'm not seeing any anticipated double-digit wind gusts, but we've got a mild breeze in favorable directions in virtually every game on the slate, with just Kansas City and our domes not working in our favor.
Pitching
Mitch Keller, PIT at CIN ($9,800): For cash lineups, and for only $600 more, I'm absolutely playing Seth Lugo, the slate's highest-priced option in a plus matchup against Miami. But for tournaments, Keller looks like a sound option to differentiate. I don't love the ballpark situation in Cincinatti, but Keller has had success against the Reds, allowing just a .231 average and .621 OPS across 89 at bats and a solid 25.8 percent K rate. Pair that with the Reds' 26.0 percent K rate and 86 wRC+ off righties, as well as Keller's fine form (seven quality starts in his last eight) and there's a lot to like.
Hunter Brown, HOU vs. COL ($9,200): Brown's profile is eerily similar to Keller's. He's on a streak of six straight quality starts, earning 40+ fantasy points four times and striking out 41 in 37.0 innings. Colorado is a tick worse than Keller's opponent, coming in with a 25.5 percent K rate and 82 wRC+ off righties. Perhaps many will look to Bobby Miller in this price tier, but Brown has far more strikeout upside with equal win likelihood, and at a cheaper salary.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC at SF ($6,400): I'll admit to having mild interest in the Mets' David Peterson ($7,500) for GPPs, as literally no one will use him against the Yankees even though they have been just league-average against lefties. But for $1,100 less, I have no problem going down to Hendricks in hopes his form holds. He faced these same Giants last time out and fanned eight across 5.1 innings, and while that's not normally his game, he's been solid of late, allowing just one run and eight hits across his last 13.2 innings. Yes, the bulk of that came in relief and he's not likely to get deep enough for a quality start. But if he can limit damage across five and collect a handful of Ks to go with it, he easily returns 20-30 fantasy points while freeing up spending for bats.
Top Targets
Chris Flexen is allowing a .415 wOBA and .983 OPS to lefties at home. It's going to be extremely difficult to pay up for Shohei Ohtani ($5,000), but after a quiet Monday, you'd expect elite production. Freddie Freeman ($3,900) is far more rosterable, but I'll caution that this duo is a combined 4-for-25 off Flexen.
Christian Yelich ($3,900) could go overlooked in an LvL matchup against Andrew Heaney. He's 3-for-9 off Heaney and carries a team-leading .413 wOBA and 170 wRC+ off lefties to date and has hit safely in 10 of 12. If you're a BvP guy, a mini stack with Willy Adames ($3,600) could work, as he's 7-for-15 with two homers off Heaney.
Bargain Bats
Padres' starter Adam Mazur has the lowest salary among SPs on Tuesday, but do we trust using a plethora of Nationals against him? Maybe we should, as he has a 7.27 ERA and 6.56 xFIP in 17.1 MLB innings, and a 7.11/4.56 at Triple-A. Jesse Winker ($2,900) is the Nats' best against righties with a .371 wOBA and 141 wRC+, and after a modest five-game hitting streak, he's 1-for-9 over his last four, pushing his price tag below $3,000.
It's likely easy/obvious to target the top of the Astros lineup against Austin Gomber, who's given up 16 runs and 22 hits in his last three starts. But his overall splits aren't that awful, so perhaps we take aces elsewhere and look to secondary Astros. Mauricio Dubon ($2,700) is my favorite thanks to his varied positional options, and he's scored at least some fantasy points in every game since June 2. Chas McCormick ($2,400) has shown some signs of life of late, and is 2-for-6 with a homer off Gomber. Jeremy Pena ($3,000) is a touch more expensive, but offers more exposure to the lineup.
Bobby Witt at $4,300 should be a set-it-and-forget-it option given the expected run total here. With weather a concern though, and Marlins' pitcher Yonny Chirinos having only thrown 5.0 innings to date, maybe secondary pieces are the choice here instead. Michael Massey ($3,000) just came off the IL and has a .210 ISO and 118 wRC+ off righties. Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,900) launched his first homer since June 1 last night, and would offer another piece of the top/middle of this order.
Finally, Jackson Merrill ($2,800) is amongst the hottest hitters in baseball, and isn't priced as such. He's 10-for-23 with three homers in his last six. It's a less than ideal matchup against lefty MacKenzie Gore, but at this cap hit, he won't likely hurt us.
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): Jarren Duran ($3,900), Rafael Devers ($3,700), Wilyer Abreu ($3,100)
Gausman has allowed 13 runs and 20 hits in three recent starts with a nine-inning shutout against Oakland sprinkled in. It's a bit of a statistical anomaly, as he's allowing a .450 wOBA to lefties at home, against .244 on the road, where he is today. We can counter that some with BvP success, as Duran and Devers are a combined 13-for-40 (.325) with a homer and eight doubles off him. Duran is cooking, ripping off a 14-game hitting streak that's seen multiple hits in nine games, including five straight. Abreu hasn't hit since his return from IL, but he offers a likely third lefty atop the order to go against Gausman's curious home/road splits that we are banking on evening out Tuesday.
Rangers vs. Bryse Wilson (Brewers): Corey Seager ($3,700), Josh Smith ($3,100), Nathaniel Lowe ($2,900)
It's been a season-long struggle for Wilson against left-handed hitters, which we can easily attack Tuesday. He's surrendering a .396 wOBA and .917 OPS to opposite-handed bats on the year, and this trio likely gives us three lefties that should hit 2-3-5 in the Rangers order. Lowe's numbers on the year are down, and he sits with a weak .319 wOBA off righties, but still slightly above average with a 105 wRC+. We can feel better about Seager and Smith, who come with a .372 wOBA and 141 wRC+ and .373/142, respectively.
