This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
FanDuel is offering a 10-game main slate Saturday afternoon, with what's becoming increasingly standard, all games starting between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. Weather remains an issue in the northeast, forcing us to pay attention to Mets-Phillies, Rangers-Yankees and Mariners-Orioles. All three were able to get their games in Friday night, but it still bares monitoring. On the mound, we have three arms priced in five-figures and four more in the 9k tier. Only one game has a run total north of 10 runs, that being Atlanta at Cincinnati. This game will be an obvious target after 21 runs were score and nine homers launched Friday night.
Pitching
Jose Berrios, TOR vs. OAK ($9,200): We trusted Berrios last time out against Miami and he let us down, but this is too obvious a spot to ignore, so the hope is a rebound performance. Oakland still ranks dead last offensively off righties, bringing a .286 wOBA, 86 wRC+ and 25.5 percent K rate. That's really all that needs to be said. There's easy 40 FDP potential here. For the same price at a less obvious spot, GPP players may want to consider Max Scherzer.
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. MIL ($8,500): I'm a tad surprised this game doesn't have a run total in the 7.5 range, but we're splitting hairs there; it appears to be two decent to better arms against middling offenses, so I have interest in both starters. But Bibee is $1,400 cheaper than his adversary in Freddy Peralta, and seemingly faces the worse offense that also isn't in decent form. Milwaukee carries a 24.8 percent K rate, hopefully allowing Bibee's 8.6 Ks per nine to play up. They have just an 88 wRC+ and .158 ISO off righties as well. Bibee doesn't have a quality start in his last four, but he looks set up for a chance at one here, as I don't expect Milwaukee to tee off on him. 34 FanDuel points (FDP) is a 4x return, something he's only done twice to date, so there is some limit to the upside, but the matchup suggests success is ahead.
Bryan Hoeing, MIA vs. PIT ($5,700): It's rare to have so much confidence in an arm this minimally priced. There's minimal innings potential, likely taking a quality start out of the equation, as Hoeing has worked just 12.1 innings in three starts. But he's got a decent enough 7.8 Ks per nine as a starter, and a 2.48 FIP. We know the ball doesn't travel in this large park, and the Pirates have just an 89 wRC+ off righties while fanning at a high enough 22.8 percent rate. They're without their best hitter in Bryan Reynolds as well. Even four clean innings with a handful of punch-outs is enough from Hoeing if we can load up on top bats.
Top Targets
As noted in the intro, Reds and Braves bats are the obvious targets. I find there to be plenty of value in Atlanta's lineup, so we'll hit on them more below. But when looking toward Cincinnati, Matt McLain ($3,500) jumps out, and isn't priced in the upper echelon either. He has a .401 wOBA, 147 wRC+ and .263 ISO off lefties.
Kansas City starter Jordan Lyles' batter-handed splits aren't targetable, but his 6.72 ERA and 5.61 FIP overall are. Randy Arozarena ($4,200) appears to be the safest option in this lineup who can provide production from everywhere. He's got a .397 wOBA and 163 wRC+ off righties, and has hit in five of his last seven with four mult-hit efforts and two homers.
Corbin Carroll ($4,200) is an everyday consideration. The wind is expected to be blowing out in San Francisco, as it was Friday, where we saw 13 runs in total pushed across. He makes for an easy building block thanks to multiple paths to fantasy points.
Bargain Bats
Francisco Lindor ($3,500) doesn't get talked about enough as being far better from the right side as does someone like Ozzie Albies. But this looks like a plus spot for the Mets shortstop, as he sits with a .373 wOBA 141 wRC+ and .354 ISO off of lefties. Yes, I'm aware his price is the same as McLains above. One is a top target because of the game stack narrative, while Lindor seems less obvious while still being under the average price per position. Frankly, I'm surprised at his price, but give recent form, it's understandable.
James Paxton has pitched far better than anyone expected to date and shows no signs of slowing down. That should make Luis Robert ($3,200) overlooked Saturday. Robert continues to absolutely crush lefties to the tune of a .519 wOBA, 242 wRC+, .389 ISO and just 13.5 percent soft contact rate.
As noted above, winds are blowing in San Francisco. There's not a lot of BvP success from the Giants lineup off of Merrill Kelly, but if you want to round out your lineup with some power potential, consider either Joc Pederson ($3,100) or Michael Conforto ($3,000).
Stacks to Consider
Braves vs. Graham Ashcraft: Austin Riley ($3,100), Marcell Ozuna ($3,000), Eddie Rosario ($3,000)
Ashcraft is expected to make his return from IL here, and it's fair to question how long he'll last, either because he's crushed by this lineup or a pitch limit. But the Reds needed 5.2 innings from their bullpen last night, and if a similar need comes Saturday, it's not likely to be pretty. Ashcraft has been lit up at Great American Ballpark, allowing an 8.63 ERA (6.15 FIP), with same-handed bats taking advantage, posting a .456 wOBA and 1.097 OPS. While the Braves bats are going to be popular, I'm hoping this trio gives us a little differentiation and contrarian success. Atlanta has been toying with its lineup lately, but this likely gives us the team's 3-5-6 hitters, allowing them to feed off each other. Riley in particular is hot with two homers in his last three. Rosario doesn't get those favorable right on right splits from Ashcraft, but has multiple hits in five of his last seven.
Red Sox vs. Lance Lynn: Rafael Devers ($3,900), Masataka Yoshida ($3,400), Jarren Duran ($2,600)
Are we really going to buy into Lynn's resurgent start last time out? I'm obviously not, and it's all systems go on the Red Sox bats Saturday. Lynn sits with a 7.64 home ERA (5.33 FIP), where lefties are crushing him for a .439 wOBA and 1.053 OPS. Conveniently for us, Boston's lineup has ample lefties to target here. Devers gives us thump and run production even if the splits are down as far as contact. Yoshida is third on the team with a .373 wOBA and 135 wRC+, giving us a second top-of-the-lineup lefty. Finally, Duran has positive numbers overall, but he's been ice cold since a scorching start. But with Alex Verdugo on the bereavement list, Duran slotted into the leadoff spot, giving us a third lefty early on against Lynn, and giving significant cost savings.
