After last night's marathon, we're right back at it with Game 4 on Tuesday evening at 8:08 p.m. EDT. Who knows what either side has in their bullpens tonight, which is probably part of the reason we've got a slightly elevated 8.5 run total. The Dodgers (-210) are massive favorites.
Pricing is pretty static, so we're not going to have a lot of new thoughts as the series progresses outside of pitching matchups, and potential injuries. I'd be shocked if George Springer plays tonight, and Bo Bichette seemingly isn't a guarantee, which can open up a few new starters, even if they won't be high-upside options.
As always when I'm handling this column, whether to roster Shohei Ohtani at $21,600/$14,400 is the most significant choice for you to make. In three of the last four games, the answer was yes, but intentional walks are increasing. He's on the mound tonight and if you can find BvP numbers for him against the Blue Jays, you're better than I am at Google. Shane Bieber opposes him, and he's allowed a homer in each of his last two starts and two runs in all three postseason starts, with two of those outings lasting 3.2 innings or less. The Blue Jays will need more from him Tuesday to help cover the bullpen, which could be a positive for the Dodgers bats.
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MVP
Teoscar Hernandez, LAD vs. TOR ($14,100/$9,400)
Bieber was far more vulnerable to righties in season, allowing a .396 wOBA and .937 OPS against .192/.435 to lefties. So if Ohtani isn't here, I like Hernandez over Mookie Betts at $15,300/$10,200 for potential. Betts simply hasn't done anything of significance with just two extra base hits. Hernandez homered last night and has five in the playoffs.
Utility
Vladimir Guerrero, TOR at LAD ($17,700/$11,800)
I'm shifting off Guerrero at MVP from my previous two columns, but I do still want shares as he's going to shoulder almost all of the Jays offensive onus. He's in a bit of a power drought, failing to homer in four straight, but he's still hitting, riding an eight-game streak that's seen multiple hits five times. He's more expensive than Freddie Freeman ($16,200/$10,800), and while I believe Guerrero's floor is safer, I wouldn't be opposed to trying to catch some momentum from Freeman off last night's walkoff.
Will Smith, LAD vs. TOR ($12,900/$8,600)
Smith has quietly hit in seven straight, and with a homer in Game 2, perhaps the power is coming back after dealing with a hand injury early in the playoffs. He's curiously only driven in three despite his place in the heart of the order, but the opportunity for more than just hits should exist Tuesday. Small sample, but he's 2-for-3 off Bieber.
Alejandro Kirk, TOR at LAD ($9,900/$6,600)
Kirk has five hits and two homers in three games this series, and has hit safely in 10 of 14 post season games, adding seven walks. Point being, he gets on base and offers a better power profile than his salary suggests.
Andy Pages, LAD vs. TOR ($8,700/$5,800)
Pages looks absolutely lost at the plate. He's got just four hits all postseason, one for extra bases, plus one RBI and two runs scored. Simply brutal. And who knows how many at-bats he'll get to try and exploit Bieber's weakness against righties? The appeal is his 27 homers during the regular season, and perhaps we get an unlikely hero tonight among all the exhausted stars. If you're going to take a zero, maybe it's better coming from this salary range than from someone like Max Muncy.
Ty France, TOR at LAD ($4,800/$3,200)
We obviously need to see the Blue Jays lineup card before considering France, but he received his first postseason action last night after Springer's exit and could find his way into the lineup as a DH if Springer is out, as I assume. France went 1-for-3 and wouldn't have any run producing potential if he actually hits leadoff, which I'd doubt, but he's also dirt cheap. One hit as a punt play, and a plethora of productive high-end bats, can work as a build.
