This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Welcome to April! It's the first Monday of the (domestically-based) MLB season, and we aren't quite a week in yet. Thus, I am still almost entirely looking at numbers from previous seasons. There are seven MLB games starting at 7:10 p.m. ET or later. Here are my DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Tanner Houck, BOS at OAK ($8,300): It's a bad day for pitchers Monday. Teams are at the end of their rotation, and some of these guys are only here because of injuries. Houck, well, he has a career 3.39 FIP and is good at avoiding home runs. What matters more to me is that the Athletics were last in runs scored and team OPS last year, and likely will be again.
Emerson Hancock, SEA vs. CLE ($7,600): The sixth-overall pick in 2020, Hancock was called up to give the Mariners' rotation a boost last season. He made three starts, managing a 4.08 FIP, before getting hurt. Is Hancock ready to become a legitimate, sustainable MLB pitcher? Facing the Guardians at home is a good place to start. Cleveland was comfortably last in home runs last year.
Top Target
It's only been a few games, but seeing power out of Manny Machado ($3,800) is encouraging. Last season he slugged .462, not bad for most, but this is a guy who has slugged .522 over the prior three seasons for the Padres. The Padres have played six games, and Machado has slugged .565. Journeyman Kyle Gibson is now a Cardinal, and he's a journeyman because he's oh-so hittable. He's made 294 MLB starts, and has a career 4.54 ERA.
Bargain Bat
In 2023, Spencer Torkelson ($3,200) didn't alleviate all worries, but in his sophomore campaign he did enough to quell the "bust" murmurs for now. He hit 31 homers for the Tigers, and he had an .829 OPS against lefties. Sean Manaea is a lefty, one who has allowed righties to hit .265 against him since 2022.
Stacks to Consider
Astros vs. Blue Jays (Bowden Francis): Yordan Alvarez ($4,200), Kyle Tucker ($3,600), Alex Bregman ($3,300)
With Alek Manaoh injured, Francis won a role in the Blue Jays rotation. How long he holds onto it, I don't know. The 27-year-old will be making his first MLB start. Guys with MLB futures don't tend to make 51 starts at the Triple-A level before making one start in the majors. Not only that, but he has to face the Astros in his first start.
They don't have guys like Alvarez down in Triple-A, that's for sure. He has slashed .294/.389/.585 in his career with over 30 homers in each of his last three campaigns. The Cuban has also had an OPS over 1.000 against righties in each of the last two campaigns. Last season, Tucker fell one homer short of his third season in a row with exactly 30 homers. However, he got to 30 stolen bases for the first time, while also hitting .284. Bregman may be right handed, but he has the splits of a southpaw. He's got issues with lefty pitcher, but since 2022 has an OPS of .864 against righties. In that time he also has an .861 OPS at home.
Cardinals at Padres (Matt Waldron): Paul Goldschmidt ($3,500), Nolan Gorman ($3,300), Brendan Donovan ($2,600)
The PCL is known for offense-friendly ballparks, and El Paso is one of the most generous in Triple-A. Even so, the fact Waldron had a 7.79 ERA in Triple-A over the prior two seasons is quite alarming. If you want to eschew those numbers, in eight MLB appearances last year he had a 5.45 FIP and allowed 1.96 home runs per nine innings. Maybe that will get you stacking Cardinals.
Goldschmidt fell below his standards last season by posting an .810 OPS with 25 homers and 11 stolen bases. At his age, there may have been reason to be worried about the guy with a career .908 OPS, but he's started this season slashing .286/.412/.500, so hopefully that's a good sign. Waldron is a righty, so I wanted the Cardinals' lefty slugger at DH in Gorman. He swings from his heels, but while he batted .236 last year, he slugged .478 with 27 homers in only 119 games. Gorman his 23 of those homers against righties. Donovan, who you can slot into second base, first base, or the outfield, doesn't have much power, but he's a solid hitter. Over the prior two seasons he hit .283 with a .381 OBP. Against righties, though, he did slug .460 last year.
