This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
At least on Tuesdays and Fridays, I am hoping to adjust this piece in the weeks ahead.
This week, I attempted to be a bit clearer about the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Cash: Jacob deGrom, NYM vs. AZ ($10,000) -- This speaks more to the lack of clear-cut high-end arms to plug in for cash games than anything else. On the surface, deGrom did very little to ease concerns of fantasy owners about his health when he took the ball Sunday against the Phillies, throwing 45 pitches in a rare one-inning start. Fortunately, a closer look at the data reveals velocity numbers that are right in line with his other starts in 2018, which bodes well for his chances of bouncing back against an Arizona lineup that currently possesses a 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and a 26.6% K% in that split -- the fourth-highest among the 30 teams in action Friday. The cash-game pitching problem on this slate is even worse than it would be otherwise due to poor weather in D.C.
Max Scherzer is home against the Dodgers, but the forecast approximately nine hours before first pitch includes a 50 percent chance of rain (or greater) throughout the evening. If the forecast clears, he's the best cash play on the board tonight.
Also consider: Playing a lighter volume of cash games, playing a slightly higher volume of tournaments (bankroll permitting). Otherwise, scale back the overall volume for one day, get a nice beverage with the savings, and enjoy the games.
GPP: Kyle Freeland, COL at SF ($7,800) -- Freeland has shown across-the-board skills growth since last season. More strikeouts, backed by an increased swinging-strike rate, and a slight drop in walks is a nice overall shift. Getting to pitch on the road at AT&T Park is an added bonus for Freeland, who draws a San Francisco lineup that is below average against southpaws (95 wRC+) with a surprising propensity to whiff (24.6% K%) this season.
Also consider…
Kyle Gibson, MIN vs. MIL ($7,600) -- This is not a drill.
Nick Tropeano, LAA vs. TB ($7,100) -- The Rays' offense is waking up, but the Angels are -150 favorites at home and the Rays whiff enough (23.4% K%) to make this work.
Catcher/First Base
Jose Abreu, CHW vs. TEX ($3,400) -- Matt Moore is pitching for the Rangers.
This price is at least $1,000 too low, and perhaps, it's the only thing keeping Anthony Rizzo's ownership rate below 30 percent in tournaments with his road matchup against Homer Bailey in Cincinnati ($4,200). Both are excellent plays for cash purposes, and fine in tournaments if you will opt for differentiation elsewhere.
As extremely cheap punt options for C/1B and UT go, Kendrys Morales is $2,100 against A's lefty Brett Anderson. Anderson leads all pitchers on the Friday slate with a .391 wOBA allowed to righties over the past two seasons (1.62 HR/9).
Second Base
Brian Dozier, MIN vs. MIL ($3,700) -- Much like Abreu, Dozier figures to be a very highly-owned player Friday, making him ideally suited for cash games. The Twins are facing Brewers lefty Brent Suter, who is a formidable swingman, but is susceptible the long ball -- particularly against righties. The only drawback in considering Dozier for Friday is that the Brewers haven't used Josh Hader in a game since Monday. If Suter keep the Twins' lineup relatively quiet through five innings, Hader can log two-plus out of the bullpen if the situation arises. At least part of the investment in Dozier (or any Minnesota bats, for that matter) hinges on a modicum of belief in Kyle Gibson's ability to capably handle the Brewers' offense.
Another consideration is Starlin Castro ($3,100) if the Braves stick with lefty Max Fried for Friday's start after Thursday night's game with the Cubs was rained out.
Third Base
Josh Donaldson, TOR vs. OAK ($4,100) -- Donaldson is averaging 10.0 FanDuel points per game since returning from the DL a couple weeks back, but he's got a great chance to improve that mark Friday with a visit from Brett Anderson and the A's. Of the Jays' bats, Donaldson should be the most highly owned, perhaps by a decent margin, which understandably limits his appeal in tournaments, but his .277/.368/.613 line against lefties since the start of last season is among the best on the board.
For tournaments, Rafael Devers ($3,200) against Alex Cobb in my first choice, with the hope that Donaldson's backers divert enough attention away to keep the Boston third baseman in the 10 percent range.
The cheapest third-base option to consider is Hunter Dozier at $2,000 against CC Sabathia and the Yankees, but he's a tournament-only play.
Shortstop
Trevor Story, COL at SF ($3,800) -- Story gets a righty-lefty matchup with Derek Holland, and while it's on the road, his .295/.380/.658 line against lefties since the start of 2017 is the driving factor behind considering him, but Holland's struggles against righties make the setup even sweeter (16.7 K%, 10.6 BB%, 1.87 HR/9, .375 wOBA vs. RHH since the start of 2016). I'm comfortable using Story in cash games and tournaments on Friday's slate.
Didi Gregorius, NYY at KC ($3,800) -- In tournaments, the slumping Gregorius is an interesting play because his price is down, and the Yankees are still positioned to put five or more runs on the board against Jake Junis and the Royals on Friday night. To be clear, Gregorius has been very quiet in May (.125/.176/.167), but perhaps a trip to Oklahoma Joe's will get him back on the right track. More importantly, Junis' splits have shown him to be more vulnerable to left-handed hitters, in terms of allowing more homers, and striking hitters out at a lower clip (career 17.7% K%).
Gregorius figures to be a much lower-owned option in tournaments than Tim Anderson ($2,800), who could wind up much higher in the order with an increasingly rare matchup against a left-handed starter Friday night (Matt Moore), though it's worth noting that Anderson is a nice value option if he is hitting first or second for the White Sox.
Outfield
Kyle Schwarber, CHC at CIN ($3,800) -- Schwarber should be among the higher-owned players in the outfield Friday, so adjust your plans accordingly in tournaments if you're leaning on chalk elsewhere. Homer Bailey has allowed the second-highest wOBA to left-handed hitters on Friday's slate (.378) since the start of 2016, while Schwarber has taken a step forward at the plate to begin 2018, posting a .253/.366/.526 line (.892 OPS) against righties.
Khris Davis, OAK at TOR ($3,300) -- Davis' reputation for striking out isn't unfair, but the league-wide increase in strikeouts has made his career 26.5% mark much more tolerable. At this price, he's viable in cash games and tournaments, and in the case of the latter, he may end up slightly underowned with a righty-righty matchup against Toronto's Marco Estrada. Davis' slash line against righties since the start of last season sits at .254/.332/.551 -- nearly identical to the line of Giancarlo Stanton (.254/.343/.541) during that span.
Adam Duvall, CIN vs. CHC ($3,000) -- Duvall continues to be a feast-or-famine play, leaving him exclusively as a tournament consideration against Jon Lester. Since the calendar flipped to May, Duvall has gone deep four times -- including two in his last three games -- but he's averaging just 8.5 FanDuel points per game for the month. Lester is excellent against lefties, but he continues to show warts against righties, including a 1.25 HR/9 against them since the start of 2016.
