This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
This is my first DraftKings article of the season, and I can't wait to dive in. I play more on DK than any other site, posting some of my biggest payouts on their format. The pricing is more strict than any other site, and that's what really has me attracted to their structure. The Monday slates we'll be covering will likely be light for most of the season, but we have a full card here! With that in mind, let's get into it!
Pitching
James Paxton, LAD vs. SF ($8,600)
I'm bullish on Paxton this year because LA is notorious for getting bounce-back seasons from journeymen pitchers. That's what Paxton is at this point but he's still got a career FIP below 3.50. He's pairing that fantastic FIP with a 26 percent K rate, making him an enticing option in Dodgers Stadium. It's not like San Fran is a scary matchup either, ranked 22nd in runs scored last year. All of that has Paxton entering this matchup as a -225 favorite, with San Fran barely projected to crack three runs.
Tanner Houck, BOS at OAK ($8,400)
We're going to use pitchers against Oakland every day. The A's were 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA last season. That's terrifying since Oakland Coliseum is one of the most spacious ballparks in baseball, making any opposing pitcher one of the best options on every slate. Houck has been an underrated arm throughout his career too, tallying a 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Sean Manaea, NYM vs. DET ($7,800)
This is a risky option but Detroit hitting in Citi Field just sounds like a nightmare. The Motor City Kitties were 26th in OBP, 28th in wOBA and 24th in K rate last season. They simply have one of the worst lineups in baseball and are only projected to score 3.5 runs in this spot. One reason for the puny projection is the matchup with Manaea, with the southpaw sporting some elite numbers to close his 2023 season. Manaea maintained a 2.61 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his final 14 appearances last year and could thrive in a spacious park like Citi Field.
Top Targets
Freddie Freeman ($6,100) vs. Keaton Winn
Freeman just went hitless on Sunday Night but that's an outlier in an otherwise superb start to the season. The perennial MVP candidate had a .500 OBP and 1.000 OPS through the first five games before that rare dud. That's not far off of his averages since joining the Dodgers, sporting a .410 OBP and .949 OPS over the last three years. Getting the platoon advantage against an inexperienced pitcher like Winn makes Freeman a win, totaling a .421 OBP and .962 OPS against righties since signing with LA.
Juan Soto ($5,600) vs. Ryne Nelson
Soto was the biggest acquisition in the offseason, and it looks like he will have a sparkling season in New York. The on-base machine has scored at least 9.0 DraftKings points in all four games this year, providing an outstanding .600 OBP. That's unsustainable, but it's not too far off of his absurd .422 career OBP. He's also done most of his damage against right-handers, registering a .430 OBP and .971 OPS against them over the last three years.
Bargain Bats
Josh Naylor ($4,600) vs. Emerson Hancock
Naylor doesn't have the power you'd expect from someone with his stature, but he's one of the best run producers in MLB. He earned the everyday clean-up role for the Guardians last year, knocking in 97 RBI, thanks to his .308 AVG and .489 SLG. You can't ask for any more from a sub-$5K player, especially when evaluating Naylor's sensational splits. The first baseman has a .297 AVG, .346 OBP and .509 SLG against right-handers over the last three years. We're not worried about a matchup with Hancock either, posting a 4.99 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at Double-A last year and never appearing in Triple-A before making three starts with Seattle last season.
Victor Scott ($2,000) vs. Matt Waldron
This is a mistake by DraftKings. It's nearly impossible to find a minimum-priced player who's actually taking the field, particularly one with this skillset. Scott is projected to be one of the league leaders in steals, swiping 95 bags across 132 games in the minors last year. All we need is this guy to get on base once, and he should be a good bet to steal a bag. That potential makes Scott a supreme option at a minimum price, especially since he faces a righty who had a 7.31 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 18 starts at Triple-A last year.
Stacks to Consider
Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Keaton Winn): Mookie Betts ($6,500), Shohei Ohtani ($6,300), Freddie Freeman ($6,100), Max Muncy ($4,500)
Just look at the names we just mentioned. This LA team has three legitimate MVP candidates and they'll be a stackable lineup on every slate. They were a top five offense in every metric last year and should be even better after adding Ohtani. These guys are even scarier against righties, with Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy all getting the platoon advantage in their favor. They're also hot right now, with Freeman and Betts posting OBPs flirting with .500 and Muncy homering on Sunday night.
We could use this daunting Dodgers lineup against anyone, but they're going to have their way with an inexperienced pitcher like Winn. The righty has only made five starts at this level, totaling a 4.68 ERA. One of those was actually against LA, surrendering three homers and six runs in that shelling. That's why LA is projected to score five runs in this spot!
New York Yankees vs. (Ryne Nelson) Juan Soto ($6,400), Aaron Judge ($5,700), Giancarlo Stanton ($4,800)
New York doesn't have the deepest lineup in baseball, but this top half is terrifying for any opposing pitcher. We already discussed how Soto is sporting a .600 OBP but the power potential from Stanton and Judge is horrifying. Judge had a .417 OBP, .657 SLG and 1.075 OPS between 2022 and 2023, while Stanton has a .529 career SLG and .879 OPS.
We prefer to use these three guys in Yankee Stadium, but a matchup with Nelson should put them in a great spot. The D'Backs righty made 27 starts for Arizona last year, compiling a 5.31 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He actually had an 8.25 ERA and 1.82 WHIP at home last year, some of the worst splits in MLB. That's why New York is the highest-projected lineup on this slate, forecasted to score nearly 5.5 runs.
