This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a nice Monday slate, with four early games and seven matchups on the main board. There figures to be condensed roster rates around the top stacks, as they are fairly obvious plays. However, there are still ways to differentiate on this slate, some of which will be highlighted below.
Pitching
Given that it's early in the season, we are getting towards the back-end of each team's rotation. That makes the slate somewhat difficult to navigate, but also interesting given that there isn't likely to be extreme chalk.
Luis Patino ($7,800) is one of the best values, though he's far from a sure thing. He has the reputation of being a strikeout pitcher due to his minor-league track record. However, that has yet to translate to the majors, as he has a career 11.2 percent swinging strike rate and 22.7 percent career strikeout rate. Nevertheless, he draws a matchup against a poor Athletics lineup. He'll likely be as close to chalk as it gets on this slate, in which case I'd be willing to fade him in larger tournaments.
Huascar Ynoa ($8,600) presents a strong pivot off Patino. He isn't likely to be rostered at as high of a rate given that people will gravitate to Patino's lower price point. However, Ynoa showed strong skills growth in 2021, highlighted by a 13.1 swinging strike rate, 26.9 percent strikeout rate and 3.62 SIERA. It's too early to get a true read on the quality of opposing lineups, though the Nationals did strike out at a 31 percent clip in their first series of the season.
Alex Wood ($9,200) is likely to project as one of the top pitchers Monday. Of the elite options, Alek Manoah ($10,200) is more likely to be rostered over Wood. Neither Wood nor Manoah is in a favorable matchup, so I'll opt for the player at home and priced $1,000 cheaper.
Top Targets
Recency bias is likely to make Byron Buxton ($5,900) a popular play, though he also happens to be a logical play. Though Chris Flexen is the second-highest priced pitcher, he managed only a 16.9 percent strikeout rate in 2021. That means he's likely to give up a lot of contact, and Buxton is among the best at doing damage when he makes contact.
The entire Atlanta roster will project well, but building through either/both Austin Riley ($4,800) and Matt Olson ($5,400) is a strong strategy. They'll be facing Austin Rogers, who posted a 5.78 SIERA across 35.2 innings. That's not a large sample, but he certainly appears to be overmatched at the big-league level.
Seattle has a matchup to take advantage of with Dylan Bundy on the mound. Bundy has allowed 1.62 HR/9 across his career, and served up 2.0 HR/9 across 90.2 frames in 2021. That should put power hitters such as Jesse Winker ($5,000) and Mitch Haniger ($4,600) in a good position to produce Monday.
Value Plays
Josh Lowe ($2,800) has steadily seen his price rise, but he's still underpriced. The Rays lineup has gotten off to a hot start this season, and he's played a key role in that production. With a matchup against one of the weaker pitchers, he presents great value.
Gary Sanchez ($2,800) has been scalding the ball to begin the season, logging exit velocities of 107.5, 106.9 and 101.1 across his first two starts. He's extremely cheap at his own position, checking in with a lower price than the likes of Jacob Stallings, James McCann and Austin Nola.
Lourdes Gurriel ($3,600) is hitting in the middle of one the best lineups in the league but is curiously priced among the worst hitters on the team. Gurriel has the skills to produce on his own and the team context to score plenty of points without going yard.
Stack to Consider
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Paul Blackburn: Brandon Lowe ($5,500), Wander Franco ($5,300), Randy Arozarena ($4,800) and Ji-Man Choi ($4,000)
Blackburn is among the most vulnerable pitchers Monday, and the Rays have the bats to take advantage. There is plenty of upside for them to produce, but they will be both a popular and expensive stack. There are still ways to cheapen the stack, including value options such as Josh Lowe, Manuel Margot or Harold Ramirez depending on where they slot into the lineup.
Atlanta vs. Josh Rogers: Eddie Rosario ($4,400), Matt Olson ($5,400), Austin Riley ($4,800) and Marcell Ozuna ($3,800)
Atlanta will also be in a strong position to produce given the matchup against Josh Rogers. This may be the chalkiest stack on the slate thanks to the relatively cheap price points of Rosario and Ozuna. That's not a reason to completely fade Atlanta hitters in tournaments, just understand that it will be important to get different elsewhere in your lineup — whether it be a secondary stack or at starting pitcher.
Minnesota vs. Chris Flexen: Byron Buxton ($5,900), Carlos Correa ($5,100), Jorge Polanco ($4,900) and Gio Urshela ($3,900)
Chris Flexen is contact prone and a pitcher to target. This is less likely to be a popular stack and it's cheaper than some of the alternatives. There are also a number of ways to build a lineup using Minnesota hitters, as even stacking the projected 4-5-6 hitters blends value and upside with Urshela, Max Kepler ($3,700) and Sanchez.
Also consider: San Francisco Giants vs. Nick Martinez: Mike Yastrzemski ($3,800), Brandon Belt ($5,500), Darin Ruf ($2,900) and Joc Pederson ($3,200)
