This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's a light night for MLB, which isn't uncommon on a Thursday. They aren't ducking the NFL Draft, I assume, although there are six afternoon games. Well, whatever the reason, first pitch pertaining to these recommendations is at 6:40 p.m. ET. There are five games on the slate. Onto my DFS feelings…
Pitching
Shane McClanahan, TAM at CHI ($10,0000): This is a great pitching matchup, as McClanahan and Dylan Cease both could be Cy Young favorites when the season ends. The difference, though, is that the Rays have had a great offense, while the White Sox have a sub-.300 OBP as a team. McClanahan has yet to allow more than two runs in a start. He could keep that going Thursday.
Tyler Mahle, MIN vs. KC ($8,000): Mahle's home run rate is a little high, but this early in the season the fact he allowed two homers in 4.1 innings at Yankee Stadium is making an outsized impact. Even still, the Twins hurler has a 3.38 ERA. The Royals are in the bottom five in runs scored, and only the Tigers have a worse team OPS, and the Tigers seem like they will be in a league of their own in terms of offensive futility this season.
Top Target
While we have seen a lack of power from Gleyber Torres ($4,600) thus far (a homer Wednesday was encouraging though), he hit 24 homers last season, and he once went yard 38 times in a campaign. The stolen bases are there, at least, as he has five of them. Last year he had an .829 OPS versus lefties and a .797 OPS at home, where he hit 17 of those home runs. The lefty Andrew Heaney has looked better since getting roughed up in his opening start against the Orioles, but two of those games were against the Royals and Athletics. This will be a tougher matchup, and in his career Heaney has allowed 1.61 home runs per nine innings.
Bargain Bat
Over the last two seasons, Ryan Mountcastle ($4,600) hit 55 homers, and he has six this year already. Since 2021 he's slugged .494 versus lefties as well. Joey Wentz is a lefty, and while he looked decent in seven starts last year, this season he has a 7.56 ERA through four outings.
Stacks to Consider
Twins vs. Royals (Zack Greinke): Byron Buxton ($5,200), Joey Gallo ($4,200), Jorge Polanco ($4,200)
Greinke loves baseball, and he's out there at 39 getting after it, but baseball isn't loving him back. The veteran has a 4.75 FIP through five starts. Last year he had odd splits, posting an 1.91 ERA at home, but a 5.32 ERA on the road. This year, his road ERA is up to 6.30. Greinke is just so easy to get hits off of these days, especially away from Kansas City, and the Twins are in line to take advantage Thursday.
Over the last five seasons, Buxton has slugged .551. He hit 28 homers in only 92 games last year, and he had an .865 OPS at home as well. Gallo is not going to keep hitting .262 with a .367 OBP with his career numbers, but the power is real. He has seven home runs, and he's hit 50 homers against righties since 2021. Polanco started the season injured, so he's only played in a handful of games, though those games have gone well. Last year, though, the switch hitter had an .832 OPS versus right-handed pitchers and an .831 OPS at home.
Mets vs. Nationals (Trevor Williams): Pete Alonso ($6,100), Brandon Nimmo ($4,600), Jeff McNeil ($4,000)
Williams, a former Met, is back starting. He has a 3.38 ERA, but a 4.63 FIP. Additionally, now that he is starting full time again, the righty has only struck out 5.48 batters per nine innings. Since 2021, righties have hit .251 against Williams, but southpaws have hit .287. Thus, I have two lefties here.
Alonso is not a lefty, but he is a dude with incredible power. He's hit 10 homers and slugged .561 this year. While he's started slow against righties this season, last year he had an .880 OPS in those matchups. Nimmo has elite on-base skills, making him an ideal leadoff hitter. He has a career .388 OBP and racked up 102 runs in 2022. McNeil doesn't have much power, but he hits for average, as he is a career .306 hitter. However, last year he had an .863 OPS versus righties, including a .480 slugging percentage.
