This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets for Thursday May 1st
Previous article 1-3 (-2.05 units)
Season 31-40-1 (-11.81 units)
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Thursday's MLB Slate Observations
Road Favorites - Brewers -178 vs White Sox
Home Favorites (Largest) - Giants -235 vs Rockies, Phillies -175 vs Nationals, Mets -162 vs Dbacks
Totals - Phillies/Nationals 9.5-10.0, Reds/Cardinals 9.0, Twins/Guardians 9.0
Giants/Rockies 7.0-7.5, Cubs/Pirates 7.5
Weather
Twins/Guardians wind blowing out 12-16 mph; Phillies/Nationals wind blowing out 10 mph; Rockies/Giants wind blowing out 10 11-14 mph.
Warmer weather throughout the midwest with the exception of White Sox/Brewers (59 degrees),
MLB Line Movement
Reds -152 to -120
Rays -134 to -166
Mets -146 to -165
Phillies -220 to -180
Tigers -144 to -120
Giants -225 to -252
Bullpen Rankings (updated 4/29/25)
Top 5 (Mets, Dodgers, Astros, Diamondbacks, Padres). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 5 (Rockies, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, Marlins). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet on them, focus on F5s.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Arizona Diamondbacks 
at New York Mets 
Picks
Zac Gallen is a pitcher I have been fading because his name value brings a lot more to the table over his performance. Gallen is still being priced as a top pitcher despite having a 5.57 ERA and 1.39 WHIP which includes a dominant performance against the Yankees. The numbers outside of that start are gross - 7.01 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9 in 25.2 innings.
Kodai Senga has two dominant starts against the D-Backs in his career going 2-0 over 14 innings with a 0.64 ERA, 22 strikeouts, and three walks. He has gotten off to a strong start in 2025 with a 3-1 record, 25 strikeouts and a 1.26 ERA. Throw in the Mets being 13-2 at home and we have a recipe for a solid play on the Mets.
Until we start to see signs of Gallen returning to his former self, I will continue to fade him.
MLB Best Bets: Mets -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +116)
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Colorado Rockies 
at San Francisco Giants 
Picks
The Rockies are making a run at the 2024 Chicago White Sox with their 5-25 record, while going just 1-14 on the road. I always find ways to fade the Rockies on the road, but the Giants offense is averaging just 3.5 runs per game over their last 10. It is tough to take the Giants at over -200 on the moneyline, while equally unattractive laying -1.5 runs, as this could end up a 3-2 or 4-3 kind of game.
Justin Verlander has looked better in his last two outings, while Kyle Freeland has not looked good. But the southpaw Freeland does not walk or allow home runs, so this ballpark could play in his favor.
With the poor Rockies performance on the road, and the Giants weak offense, plus the ballpark factor, I think we get great value on the UNDER at 7.5 runs. You can shop around for a 7.0 total at EVEN money.
MLB Best Bet: Rockies/Giants UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
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Washington Nationals 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
Picks
What do you get when you mix two pretty good offenses in a hitter-friendly ballpark with two bad starting pitchers (Brad Lord versus Taijuan Walker), along with the worst bullpen in baseball (Nationals)? You get a TOTAL of 9.5 or 10.0, depending on what sportsbook you use.
I am always leery of going OVER when the number is 9.5, as we need to get to double digits. This means you either need both teams to be in the 4-5 run range or we need a blowout 7-3 type of game. I think we get more along the lines of a 6-5 or even higher type of game with these two pitchers.
Taijuan Walker is NOT a good pitcher despite his 2.78 ERA. Even the worst of pitchers will have stretches where they are extremely lucky (check Randy Vasquez) or just happen to get a team on the right day. Brad "Our Dear" Lord might not be long for this game against these powerful Phillies bats, before turning it over to the worst bullpen in baseball.
MLB Best Bet: Nationals/Phillies OVER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -122)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Mets -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +116)
- Rockies/Giants UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
- Nationals/Phillies OVER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -122)
