We get our first ever Black Friday NFL game, which is a perfect way to let the Thanksgiving dinner digest. The Dolphins are looking to continue their potential run at not only winning the AFC East, but also to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC Conference entering the NFL playoffs. Today's matchup will be the first of two meetings between the Dolphins and the Jets in the next month. Will the high-flying Dolphins offense be able to maintain their success against a strong Jets defense?
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Jets vs Dolphins Props: Tyreek Hill OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards
The Jets have arguably the best duo of cornerbacks in the NFL in Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. Both rank in the top-9 of coverage grades on PFF, and the two of them have combined to allow only one receiving touchdown in coverage this year. Of corners ranked in the top-20 of PFF's coverage grades that have played at least eight games this year, Gardner has the lowest yards per reception allowed, and Reed ranks second.
The thing about Tyreek Hill is that none of that could matter. His speed is game-changing. He's capable of breaking any reception into a long touchdown. Hill is on a mission to become the first wide receiver in league history to total 2,000 receiving yards in a single regular season, and he's currently on pace to do so. He's averaging 122.2 yards per game, and needs to average just under 112 yards per game over the remaining schedule to do so.
One caveat worth mentioning – the Jets held Hill to 44 yards or less in both of their matchups last season. It's possible they commit to erasing his production in this one, so tread lightly.
Jets vs Dolphins Props: Raheem Mostert OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards
This screams a Raheem Mostert game. While rookie running back De'Von Achane was activated off IR, he isn't playing today. Last week without Achane active, Mostert saw 22 carries.
We've talked about how elite the Jets secondary is. Miami is still going to pass the ball and hit their big plays – it's what they do – but those big plays are predicated on an equally-explosive rushing attack. The Dolphins average the most yards per rush in the NFL this year at 5.6, and the team averages the second-most rushing yards per game at 143.0. They do so on only 25.5 rushing attempts per game, which slots in at 20th in the league.
Playing the Mostert workload is also an option – his rushing attempts line is set at 14.5 – but I'd rather play the yards. The Jets defense with their fantastic secondary have been susceptible to the run, allowing the third-most rushing yards per game in the NFL at 137.6. Throw in the fact that the Jets have benched Zach Wilson in favor of Tim Boyle, and the Miami offense could see plenty of time on the field today.
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