This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The U.S. Open women's singles final will be played Saturday. For the second year in a row, Aryna Sabalenka will face an American ranked in the top 10, and the fans in Arthur Ashe Stadium will be hoping to see a repeat of last year's result in favor of the American. Jessica Pegula will be looking to turn the tables after losing to Sabalenka just before the U.S. Open. Both finalists were playing fantastic hard-court tennis leading up to this tournament, so it's fitting that these two will be facing off in the championship match.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Thursday's women's semifinal matches.
U.S. Open Odds: Sabalenka vs. Pegula
Aryna Sabalenka (-330) vs. Jessica Pegula (+250)
Sabalenka's looking to add a third hard-court Grand Slam title to her resume, having won each of the last two Australian Opens. For the second year in a row, she will have to battle both her opponent and the crowd in the U.S. Open final, and that was too much to overcome last year for the big-hitting Belarusian, as she lost to Coco Gauff. Sabalenka had no such problems in the semifinals this year against American Emma Navarro, weathering Navarro's second-set comeback bid in a 6-3, 7-6 (2) win. The No. 2 seed is firmly established as the best hard-court player on the WTA Tour given her 26-1 record on the surface in Grand Slams over the past two years, and Sabalenka's also riding an 11-match winning streak at the moment, including a 6-3, 7-5 win over Pegula in the final of Cincinnati just before the U.S. Open.
That loss to Sabalenka was Pegula's lone defeat in her last 16 matches, and the sixth-seeded American's confidence in close matches was on full display in her 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 semifinal comeback victory over Karolina Muchova. Pegula looked down and out early but capitalized on the Czech's drop in level after Muchova missed an easy volley that would have put her up 6-1, 3-0. Even with the crowd in her corner, Pegula will have to raise her level to have a chance against Sabalenka, who has significantly more power than the crafty Muchova and plenty of big-match experience. This is Pegula's first Grand Slam final, but she has proven capable of hanging with top players in other tournaments. While Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 5-2, both of Pegula's wins came on hard courts. This match will ultimately come down to Sabalenka's level, as she's the much bigger hitter and will control most of the rallies, but we have seen the favorite falter in big stages before and Pegula will make her earn it by getting extra balls back on defense and attacking when the American gets a short ball.
U.S. Open Women's Final Prediction: Sabalenka def. Pegula 6-2, 6-4
