This article is part of our Football Picks series.
It feels like the last full set of league matches were ages ago with Carabao Cup, FA Cup and UEFA games all taking place since Gameweek 24. Since then, more injuries have happened and the pressure on managers Ange Postecoglou and Ruben Amorim has only heightened. The business end of the season isn't here yet many teams are already hoping for things to end.
So, let's bet on their misfortunes.
Premier League Best Bets for Ipswich Town at Aston Villa
It's been a weird season for Aston Villa. They've had success in Champions League but have been pretty mediocre most of the Premier League campaign. I'm not sure there's an exact answer for that except style of play and that they've been worn thin, especially across the back line of late.
Villa are normally great at limiting corners, allowing barely three per home match this season. Ipswich Town are a bit of the opposite in that they're one of the worst at accruing corners. They've also looked worse recently despite the new signings, managing just one corner at home against Southampton last league match, losing 2-1.
I think Ipswich might hold strong early but concede late, so I'm looking at second half corners.
Betting tip: Aston Villa -1.5 corners in 2H -110
EPL Best Bets for AFC Bournemouth at Southampton
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Both Bournemouth and Southampton like to press but only Bournemouth are successful at it. Southampton have been marred by mistakes throughout the season and a new injury to Taylor Harwood-Bellis, arguably their best center-back, is unlikely to help.
They've at least shown life under Ivan Juric, but that doesn't make them a mid-table side. They couldn't score at home against Burnley last weekend, mustering just .98 xG despite playing most of their regulars in the FA Cup. Bournemouth capitalized early in the previous meeting en route to a 3-0 result and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again.
The Cherries were maybe unlucky to not take anything from Liverpool last league match, but their prior results suggest a team in form and ready to pounce on one struggling. I also like Bournemouth -1.5 at +125.
Betting tip: Bournemouth over 2.5 goals +135
Premier League Best Bets for Manchester United at Tottenham Hotspur
This is the funniest matchup of the season, coming at the perfect time for both managers. Tottenham are reeling with injuries and even if they get a couple players back, I'm not sure that helps them reach early-season levels when they dismantled Man United 3-0.
Under Ruben Amorim, United have turned into a mostly safe team, as they almost seem scared to lose games at times. They totaled two shots and .04 xG in the first half at home against Leicester City in a recent FA Cup match. In their last away match, they lucked into a 1-0 win at Fulham thanks to a massive deflection as they finished with four shots and .25 xG.
Spurs matches are known for being frantic and high scoring, but I'm not sure that shows up in this one. They're tired, playing with less certainty and their amount of chances isn't near where they were early in the campaign.
If neither team hits the back of the net in the first half, I wouldn't be surprised if the game died from there. I like 'no' on both teams to score at +195 and scoreless draw at +1700. However, all of these bets seem crazy because Tottenham are involved.
Nevertheless, these teams mostly want the season to end. Unfortunately, it's only Gameweek 25.
Betting tip: Under 2.5 goals between Spurs and Man United +170
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Premier League Betting Picks Gameweek 25
- Aston Villa -1.5 corners in 2H vs. Ipswich -110
- Bournemouth over 2.5 goals at Southampton +135
- Under 2.5 goals between Spurs and Man United +170
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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