This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Newcastle look for their third win of the season over Nottingham Forest on Sunday.
The Magpies have been in a little bit of bad form and are fresh off a drubbing at the hands of Manchester City. Eddie Howe's side is fighting for a spot in the top six and three points would be massive. They've beaten Nottingham Forest twice already this season, which should give them confidence heading into this matchup.
Nottingham Forest lost 2-1 against Fulham last weekend, making it two losses in their last three matches. It's been an amazing season for the Trees, but they've been over performing and were going to regress at some point. The gap between them and Bournemouth in fifth place is now only four points, so it's crucial that they get a result at St. James' Park.
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Premier League Best Bets for Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Nottingham Forest have been an incredibly difficult team to break down this season.
They sit in a low-defensive block, don't pressure the ball and cut off every passing lane through the middle. The only route that most teams have against them is to to get the ball out wide and to send in crosses against them.
For Newcastle, this is probably going to be their best method of attack and that means crosses into Alexander Isak.
The Swede has 17 goals on the season and scored against Forest in the previous meeting off a cross. He's been held scoreless in his last two Premier League matches, but he was on a run of 13 goals in 10 matches prior to that.
I like the value on him to find the back of the net at +120.
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Betting on Corners
Playing a low block against Newcastle is generally the best method because you don't want to get into a transition game with the Magpies. They are deadly in counter-attacking moments and are one of the most direct teams in the Premier League.
However, in this match, they are going to be the ones tilting the field and sustaining pressure on Nottingham Forest, which is more than likely going to lead to a lot of corners.
Away from home this season, Nottingham Forest are conceding the third most corners per 90 minutes. I like the value on Newcastle at -2 corners for +105 odds.
Betting on Goalkeeper Saves
The biggest difference between Nottingham Forest this season compared to last is goalkeeping.
From when Nuno Espirito Santo took over Dec. 20, 2023 until the end of last season, Forest allowed 1.33 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. This season, they're allowing 1.12, which is an improvement, but not a drastic one.
They went through three keepers last season and combined those three had a negative 18 post-shot xG +/-, meaning they saved 18 fewer goals than they should have.
Matz Sels has played every match this season and has a plus-3.2 post-shot XG +/-, which has been biggest difference for them this season.
He's going to be under siege for most of this match and is averaging 3.28 saves per 90 minutes.
I like the value on him to have over 3.5 saves at -110
Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest United Betting Picks
- Alexander Isak Anytime Goalscorer (+333)
- Newcastle -2 corners (+105)
- Matz Sels Over 3.5 saves (-110)
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