This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Chelsea look to get out of their bad run of form when they host Wolves at Stamford Bridge on Monday.
The Blues are winless in their last five Premier League matches. It hasn't been the most difficult schedule, either, playing the likes of Everton, Fulham, Ipswich, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. They put six goals past Wolves in the previous meeting and really need to do something similar to get some of their confidence back.
Wolves were hammered by Newcastle in the midweek 3-0, which keeps them barely above the relegation zone. The performances have improved under Vitor Periera, but Wolves need to start picking up points or they'll be spending next season in the Championship.
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Premier League Best Bets for Chelsea vs. Wolves
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Cole Palmer has been the one putting the ball in the back of the net for Chelsea, but the guy getting the highest quality chances has been Nicolas Jackson.
For the season, Jackson is averaging 0.63 xG per 90 minutes, which is a lot higher than Palmer and he isn't even the one taking penalties.
For this match, Wolves will likely sit in a 5-4-1 defensive shape and force Chelsea to beat them with crosses. That likely means Jackson is going to be the guy in the box to get on the end of those crosses.
I like the value on him to find the back of the net at +120 odds.
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Betting on Team Total Goals
Jorgen Strand Larsen has been extremely unlucky lately. The Norwegian has only found the back of the net once in his last eight Premier League matches, but he's created 3.5 expected goals in that period.
His ability to get on the end of chances created is what's important. Under Pereira, Wolves are playing a lot of direct balls to their wingers or wing-backs, trying to beat the opposing full-backs to send in crosses to Strand Larsen. It almost worked multiple times against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle, but he was unlucky not to find the back of the net.
Chelsea play a high line and that leaves them vulnerable to direct balls over the top, so I think Strand Larsen has a great chance of scoring in this match at +350.
Betting on Team Shots
If Wolves are going to sit deep, that will likely deny Chelsea from playing through the middle, forcing them into a lot of low-quality chances.
That's what happened in the previous meeting. Even though Chelsea scored six goals, they ended up creating 1.6 expected goals for the match.
The Blues have been struggling to break down low blocks recently, scoring just two goals against Everton, Fulham, Ipswich and Crystal Palace. I think they will take a load of shots in this match, but they might not be of the highest quality.
I like the value on their Team Shot total Over 18.5 at -120.
Chelsea vs. Wolves Betting Picks
- Nicolas Jackson Anytime Goalscorer (+120)
- Jorgen Strand Larsen Anytime Goalscorer (+350)
- Chelsea Over 18.5 shots (-120)
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