DFS Soccer 101: Midweek GPP Targets

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Updated on February 1, 2016 12:52PM EST

With a busy early February schedule ahead of us, we have midweek matches and weekend matches coming up. This week's article will focus on tournament targets for the midweek slate. I'll try to pinpoint four players who should be under-owned but we can expect them to be in some excellent positions to deliver good results.

One thing to heavily consider when examining potential GPP targets is the number of shots a player has taken in recent weeks combined with touches in the final third, as they can indicate an increased role that could coincide with an increase in production. Ruling out players that score goals off of few touches can help narrow down the focus on those who have the potential of scoring a goal or two in an advantageous situation.

Here are the top 15 players in the last three weeks in terms of touches in the final third, as well as the top 15 players in shots on target and crosses over the same time frame.

Player	Touches in Final Third	Player	SOT	Player	Crosses
Christian Eriksen	129	Harry Kane	9	Willian	29
Willian	127	Sergio Aguero	7	Marc Albrighton	29
Kevin De Bruyne	118	Aleksandar Mitrovic	7	Dimitri Payet	27
Harry Kane	114	Christian Eriksen	6	Kevin De Bruyne	26
Jordan Ayew	112	Joselu	6	Chritian Eriksen	23
Shane Long	108	Dele Alli	6	James McClean	23
Sergio Aguero	108	Roberto Firmino	5	Gylfi Sigurdsson	22
Dimitri Payet	105	Shane Long	4	Junior Stanislas	22
Junior Stanislas	105	Diego Costa	4	James Milner	22
David Silva	100	Olivier Giroud	4	Leandro Bacuna	21
Erik Lamela	98	Enner Valencia	4	Daryl Janmaat	21
Dele Alli	98	Gylfi Sigurdsson	4	Erik Lamela	21
Moussa Sissoko	97	Emre Can	4	Leighton Baines	20
Marc Albrighton	95	Jermain Defoe	4	Gerard Deulofeu	19
Roberto Firmino	95	15 tied with 3 SOT	3	Jermaine Lens	19

A quick glance shows that a good number of players that are on the "Touches in the Final Third" selection also show up on the most crosses and shots on target lists. In fact, of the top 15 players in touches in the final third, 12 are on one of the other two lists. The three exceptions were David Silva, Jordan Ayew and Moussa Sissoko. In the case of Silva, I expect him to increase his fantasy production in the coming weeks with Kevin De Bruyne out for up to 10 weeks due to knee and ankle injuries. Ayew and Sissoko are situational players who may perform if given the right matchups.

Speaking of matchups, it's time to consider the top three tournament plays in the midweek matches being played on Tuesday:

David Silva
He's not going to be under the radar, per se, but he's going to be overlooked by those who just watch the game logs and not pay attention to the news. Silva should fall right into the role played by De Bruyne, including corners. This should increase Silva's floor for both cash games and tournaments, as he now increases his likelihood of creating chances and goal-scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates.

To further illustrate this point, here's a look at the few matches that Silva played prior to his early season injury and before De Bruyne joined City:

Week	Opponent	Touches in Final Third	Goals	Assists	Crosses	DK Points
1	West Brom	64	1	1	6	32.5
2	Chelesea	36	0	2	5	23.5
3	Everton	54	0	0	6	13.5
4	Watford	52	0	1	6	14.5

This shows that the floor for Silva without De Bruyne is in the double digits, while his ceiling is upwards of 30 points. In 10 weeks with De Bruyne, Silva was able to reach double-digit points just four times. This week, the Citizens are playing at Sunderland, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League, allowing close to 23 crosses per game, as well as an average of 6.3 shots on target each match.

Christian Eriksen
Usually when Eriksen's name is invoked in daily fantasy soccer, it's followed by a groan and an acceptance that he is the ultimate tournament target, as he can deliver anything from two fantasy points up to 45 if the cards fall right. Eriksen is known for a shoot-first-ask-questions-later mentality that doesn't play well into the team dynamic. In the last three weeks, however, he's proven himself to be a great team asset as he's led the league in touches in the final third. He's also in the top five in shots on target as well as crosses. In fact, his fantasy production in his last three matches is 23, 36 and 11 points, respectively. He's delivered with goals, assists, crosses as well as tackles and shots. Eriksen has the potential to score goals, but his real value is in crosses and corners, of which he took seven in his last premier league match against Crystal Palace.

Jamie Vardy
Along with Riyad Mahrez, I expect Leicester's top duo will return to prominence in the upcoming weeks with easy fixtures. The combination of rest as well as an uptick in involvement lets me believe that Vardy is on the verge of a breakout game or two. Here's a quick look at his last four gameweeks:

Opponent	Touches in Final Third	Touches in Penalty Area	Shots
Manchester City	28	6	3
Bournemouth	46	16	4
Tottenham	17	5	1
Aston Villa	21	10	3
Stoke	21	7	3

What makes the matchup against Stoke significant is that Vardy scored in their previous matchup this season. If they wish to remain contenders, then Mahrez, and to a greater extent, Vardy need to step up.

Another reason to target Vardy is his cheap price on DraftKings in a matchup against a Liverpool side that just allowed four goals to Norwich City in the last gameweek.

Benik Afobe
Part of the art of roster construction is trying to predict what the opponent will do. Afobe is in a very good spot against a Palace team that has allowed 11 goals in their last four matches. And while his price is a cheap $4,200 on DraftKings, he's going to go lower-owned than usual. The reason is that as of Monday morning he has a little red Q next to his name. This questionable tag will deter the average player who may or may not pay attention to the starting XI as it gets announced an hour before kick off. Afobe has scored in both of his last two matches and now has a matchup against a slightly weakened defense.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.