This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The third round of the FA Cup takes center stage this weekend as teams from the Premier League and Championship enter the competition.
There are some high profile matches like Arsenal against Manchester United on Sunday, but the third round is usually famous for upsets. They call it The Magic of the Cup because of how often teams from the lower leagues pull off major upsets against the big boys.
Last season, Maidstone United, who is in the sixth tier of the English Football pyramid made it all the way to fifth round, which included an upset of Ipswich Town. Who is it going to be this year?
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FA Cup Best Bets for Morecambe at Chelsea
Chelsea -4 against Morecambe +115
Chelsea are one of the few teams in this competition that has a true barometer to how good they are when playing a rotated squad.
In the UEFA Europa Conference League this season, they've almost always played less than full strength, made evident by Cole Palmer not even being in the registered squad for early stages. In six matches during the league phase they had a plus-21 goal differential and a +2.02 xGD per 90 minutes.
Morecambe play in League Two and are one of the worst defensive teams in that league, allowing 1.68 xG per 90 minutes. They're battling in the relegation zone and if things don't turn around quickly, they are heading for the National League.
This spread is large, but even with a rotated squad, Chelsea should hammer Morecambe, similar to some recent results in European play. I like the value on their spread of -4 at +115.
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FA Cup Best Bets for Sheffield Wednesday at Coventry City
Coventry City to beat Sheffield Wednesday -105
Danny Rohl has done a masterful job rebuilding Sheffield Wednesday, but to be honest, they've overperformed this season. They're in 10th place but have a minus-4.4 expected goal differential.
The biggest issue that Sheffield Wednesday have is that their transition defense has been poor and they're allowing too many big chances. Seventeen percent of their shots allowed have come in the six-yard box, which is by far the worst mark in the Championship. On top of that, they have allowed the second-most expected goals from set pieces.
Coventry City are a bit of the opposite, going through a crazy level of underperformance in league play. They are third in expected goal differential but are sitting in 16th place in the table.
Given the gap in terms of underlying data between these two teams, Coventry City should be priced much closer to -150. I like the value on them at -105.
FA Cup Best Bets for Derby County at Leyton Orient
Under 2.5 goals -145
I think the total is too high in this match given the underlying data for both teams. Matches involving Derby County in the Championship this season are only averaging 2.10 expected goals. Leyton Orient's matches in League One are only averaging 2.29 expected goals.
Derby County like to play a direct style with a lot of long balls up to the forwards. That's fine when playing teams that press high and your forwards are in one-on-one situations against the opposing backline. It doesn't really work when playing a team that is going to sit back in a passive defensive structure.
With Leyton Orient likely sitting back and looking to hit Derby County on the counter, this is more than likely going to be a low event match. I like the value on under 2.5 goals at -145.
FA Cup Third Round Betting Picks
- Chelsea -4 against Morecambe (+115)
- Coventry City moneyline against Sheffield Wednesday (-105)
- Leyton Orient/Derby County Under 2.5 goals (-145)
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