This article is part of our DFS Soccer 101 series.
Punting a defender spot is a time-honored tradition on DraftKings, as fantasy players scroll to the bottom of the position salary scale hoping to unearth a luck-box goal (thanks to Jordan Cooper for that phrase) to propel them to the top of GPP standings. We've all been there, staring at names like Steve Cook, Ryan Shawcross and Federico Fernandez wondering if this is the week they score one of their three goals on the season (if they even reach that many). All it takes is one time getting a goal out of a $2,800 defender to make you think you're the center-back whisperer and that you'll be able to nail the next one, even if you've been wrong the last 18 slates.
Don't get me wrong, I'm just as guilty as anyone else in thinking that the day I pick a $2,900 Ashley Williams is the day he'll bag his first career hat trick. I was curious what process other people use when trying to catch lighting in the center-back bottle, so I asked on Twitter how people decide on their punts. While some referenced chasing clean sheets (three fantasy points on DraftKings), pairing them with their goalkeeper, or what kind of low floor their tackles and interceptions provide, the general consensus was goal upside, specifically targeting teams that are poor at defending set pieces (Hi, Arsene!). And while that line of thinking makes sense in theory, defenders don't score that many goals and rarely, if ever, have
Punting a defender spot is a time-honored tradition on DraftKings, as fantasy players scroll to the bottom of the position salary scale hoping to unearth a luck-box goal (thanks to Jordan Cooper for that phrase) to propel them to the top of GPP standings. We've all been there, staring at names like Steve Cook, Ryan Shawcross and Federico Fernandez wondering if this is the week they score one of their three goals on the season (if they even reach that many). All it takes is one time getting a goal out of a $2,800 defender to make you think you're the center-back whisperer and that you'll be able to nail the next one, even if you've been wrong the last 18 slates.
Don't get me wrong, I'm just as guilty as anyone else in thinking that the day I pick a $2,900 Ashley Williams is the day he'll bag his first career hat trick. I was curious what process other people use when trying to catch lighting in the center-back bottle, so I asked on Twitter how people decide on their punts. While some referenced chasing clean sheets (three fantasy points on DraftKings), pairing them with their goalkeeper, or what kind of low floor their tackles and interceptions provide, the general consensus was goal upside, specifically targeting teams that are poor at defending set pieces (Hi, Arsene!). And while that line of thinking makes sense in theory, defenders don't score that many goals and rarely, if ever, have decent goal-scoring odds. In fact, center-backs generally have the worst anytime goal scoring odds among outfield players.
There have been 775 goals scored in the Premier League this season (not including own goals), with 59 (7.61 percent) coming from starting center-backs. If we want to help our cause a bit, 699 of those 775 goals have been scored by starters, which means 8.44 percent of those goals have come from center-backs. Given the small outcome, what makes people believe that their center-back is likely to be the one to score that week?
West Brom's Gareth McAuley has been the premier (no pun intended) center-back option this season, as he's scored six league goals on 16 shots (seven on goal). Now, even elite goal scorers like Zlatan Ibrahimovic don't score every week, but McAuley's six goals in 29 starts means he hasn't scored a goal in 79.3 percent of his starts, and he's the best scorer at his position. There are 13 other center-backs who have scored multiple times this season, which means there are only 35 unique starting center-backs who have found the back of the net, including 21 who have only scored once. Kudos to you if you nailed that Mike van der Hoorn goal against Manchester United back on Nov. 6.
Picking a center-back against a team that's poor at defending set pieces makes sense, as center-backs tend to score their goals in those situations. However, being poor in set-piece situations doesn't necessarily mean that the opposing center-backs are the ones taking advantage. In fact, one reply to my Twitter question specifically cited Arsenal's struggles against West Brom last weekend, when Craig Dawson scored twice. Unfortunately, Dawson started at right-back and cost $3,800, which is a bit more than a true punt salary, so he didn't qualify as a cheap center-back punt play. Looking at the stats further, Arsenal haven't even allowed that many goals, shots or shots on goal to center-backs this season:
Depending on a goal from a center-back isn't a sound fantasy strategy, though investing in a sub-$3,000 player is rarely a chalk play anyway, plus the investment is minimal. So, if we're really looking for a floor of two-to-three fantasy points from tackles and interceptions (the DraftKings stats center-backs accumulate most often), how realistic is that? Here are the number of times starting center-backs reached certain fantasy-point levels on DraftKings based solely on tackles (one point each) and interceptions (half point each):
Nearly 25 percent of starting center-backs were able to reach three fantasy points with tackles and interceptions alone, though it drops to below 10 percent when extending it to four points. But again, the fantasy investment is fairly minimal and we haven't even considered fouls drawn or shots taken. If we break down the instances by team, both in how many times their center-backs have reached each fantasy-point level and how many times opposing center-backs have reached them (the "Allowed" section below), we can get a better idea of which teams have players reach their hoped-for floor more often, and which teams allow them more often:
Based on the information in the second table, it's unsurprising that the clusters are around the 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 fantasy-point marks, but we do see a few outliers, such as Hull City center-backs reaching 4.5 fantasy points from tackles and interceptions seven times (thank you, Harry Maguire), nearly double the next highest teams, while Tottenham's center-backs have finished with zero tackles and interceptions nine times. On the flip side, center-backs against Bournemouth have scored 3.0 or 3.5 fantasy points from tackles and interceptions 11 times each, the highest combined total in that range. With the idea that you can select center-backs against high attacking teams to get tackles and interceptions, it's a bit surprising that Bournemouth lead that range, though don't ignore 13 center-backs scoring three points against Manchester City.
Fantasy players never take center-backs on DraftKings because of their floors, but we can at least get an idea of which players may be able to provide something for when they inevitably don't score or even take a shot. There are no clear-cut answers, but what did you expect in analyzing sub-$3,000 players?
