This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Newcastle are looking for their first trophy in almost 70 years when they travel to Wembley to take on Liverpool on Sunday in the Carabao Cup final.
Liverpool's Champions League title hopes came to an end in the midweek when they lost to PSG on penalties. It's been a difficult stretch for Liverpool in terms of opponents. They had to play Manchester City, Newcastle and PSG all in the past month and were almost perfect until Tuesday's PK loss. They recently beat Newcastle 2-0, which should give them confidence heading into this EFL Cup final.
Newcastle have gone through a bit of a difficult stretch, but they're firmly still in the race for a spot in the top four in the Premier League. They were in this position two years ago against Manchester United trying to secure their first trophy since 1969 but ended up falling short. The fans in the northeast of England have been waiting a long time for this and will be hoping to celebrate a title Sunday.
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Premier League Best Bets for Liverpool vs. Newcastle
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Alexander Isak didn't play in the most recent encounter between these two teams and it was evident how important he is to their team. In that match, Newcastle only created 0.2 expected goals, as they don't have any other consistent goal-scoring threats other than Isak.
When these two met at St. James' Park, Isak scored the opening goal similar to how he's done it most of the season, making a run off the back line. His positioning in attack to find space making those runs is elite and even fooled one of the best center-back pairings in world football.
Anthony Gordon is suspended, which means everything is going to be on Isak to carry the offense.
I like the value on him to score in this match at +240.
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Betting on Player Shots
One of the reasons Liverpool have been good this season is the profiles of their forwards.
To be elite you need different types of attackers. You need a No. 9 who can play a lot of different roles, dropping deep to help in build up, making runs off the back line, and creating space for others (Diogo Jota). You need a ball carrier, someone who can carry it forward at an elite level, taking defenders on to create chances (Luiz Diaz), and you need a high-volume shooter (Mohamed Salah).
Salah has been the best player in the world this season and continually takes most of Liverpool's shots. They use him as a target man, playing the ball deep when they try to play over the top when opponent's press. Often, that gets him isolated against the opposing full-back and he's able to cut inside and create his own shot.
He's averaging 3.4 shots per 90 minutes this season, and I like the value on him to have over 3.5 shots in this match at +120.
Betting on Moneyline
PSG are one of the few teams in the world that can give Liverpool problems because they have so much versatility and fluidity in their attack.
Ousmane Dembele playing as a false nine caused Liverpool a lot of problems in both legs because Virgil van Dijk isn't someone who likes getting dragged out of position. Ibrahima Konate always has to cover Trent Alexander-Arnold's side of the pitch, so it can be a problem when they get overloaded in the middle.
Newcastle aren't the type of team to do this. They would much rather try to hit Liverpool in transition, which is a very difficult thing to do.
The flip side is Newcastle's back line is very aggressive with their man marking, which often creates space in behind. They also struggle defending in transition, which is a problem because when Liverpool wants to, they are one of the best transition teams in the world.
The line has come down from opening and I think has created some value on Liverpool. I like them on the moneyline at -150.
Liverpool vs. Newcastle United Betting Picks, EFL Cup final
- Isak Anytime Goalscorer (+240)
- Salah Over 3.5 shots (+120)
- Liverpool Moneyline (-150)
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