This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Jack Link's 500
Location: Talladega, Ala.
Course: Talladega Superspeedway
Format: 2.66-mile tri-oval
Laps: 188
Race Preview
After the season's only week off, the NASCAR Cup Series protagonists hit the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway this weekend in the Jack Link's 500. Kyle Larson wrested the momentum to his camp heading into the brief break with a dominant race at Bristol to pick up his second win of the season. The racing this week couldn't be more different, though. Talladega's wide surface and flat-out turns make drafting the priority this time. Tyler Reddick and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won the two Talladega races last season, but William Byron got the job done at Daytona earlier this season. The Ford powered Team Penske machines, which were among the best at Daytona, will be hopeful this week's stop gives them a chance to halt the early season dominance from Toyota and Chevrolet. With just one victory for Ford this season so far, this week's contest has a lot on the line for the manufacturer. However, with the unpredictability of superspeedway racing and Talladega's tendency to spark multi-car crashes, this week is a chance for fantasy players and wagerers to go with some longshot options, and some of the teams that have been behind so far this season will similarly view this week's race as a chance for them to upset the established order.
Key Stats at Talladega Superspeedway
- Number of races: 111
- Winners from pole: 14
- Winners from top-5 starters: 56
- Winners from top-10 starters: 75
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 9
- Fastest race: 188.354 mph
Previous 10 Talladega Winners
2024 fall - Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2024 spring - Tyler Reddick
2023 fall - Ryan Blaney
2023 spring - Kyle Busch
2022 fall - Chase Elliott
2022 spring - Ross Chastain
2021 fall - Bubba Wallace
2021 spring - Brad Keselowski
2020 fall - Denny Hamlin
2020 spring - Ryan Blaney
Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.6-mile oval with high banking and a wide racing surface. While Daytona International Speedway is its closest relative, Talladega's bigger size allows more elbow room for drivers as tires wear and intensity in the pack grows. As with all superspeedways, pack racing and drafting is the name of the game. This style of competition often produces multi-car crashes as the tight racing leaves little opportunity for drivers to avoid accidents ahead. Fans should also expect manufacturers to work together like we saw at Daytona.
Manufacturers will pit together throughout the race to ensure there are enough cars to draft back up to race speed after stopping, losing as little time as possible. Given the importance of staying the draft, mistakes on pit road under green can be especially painful. Having to return to pit road to serve a penalty, thereby losing the draft, means losing laps to the leaders and a long afternoon of hoping to get back onto the lead lap. Staying out of trouble until the final laps can sometimes be enough to snag a top finish, but winning will require making all the right moves in the final moments of the 500-mile race.
At this track, a matter of inches is often the difference maker between victory and crashing. Starting position isn't a huge concern at Talladega. No winning driver since 2020 started better than the 10th position. A car that can make passes in the draft is the advantage every driver will be seeking.
RotoWire NASCAR Cup Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Jack Link's 500 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Ryan Blaney - $10,500
Joey Logano - $10,200
William Byron - $10,000
Denny Hamlin - $9,800
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Brad Keselowski - $9,600
Christopher Bell - $9,200
Chase Elliott - $9,000
Kyle Busch - $8,800
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Austin Cindric - $8,600
Tyler Reddick - $8,400
Chase Briscoe - $8,200
Bubba Wallace - $8,000
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Michael McDowell - $7,600
Todd Gilliland - $7,200
Erik Jones - $6,400
Noah Gragson - $6,300
NASCAR Cup Series DFS Picks for the Jack Link's 500
Ryan Blaney - $10,500
Joey Logano - $10,200
Chase Elliott - $9,000
Todd Gilliland - $7,200
Erik Jones - $6,400
Noah Gragson - $6,300
Team Penske drivers were the ones to beat at this year's Daytona 500. Though William Byron won the race, Ryan Blaney (DK $10,500, FD $14,000) and teammate Joey Logano (DK $10,200, FD $13,500) won the two stages and led a combined 66 laps of the 201 run. Add Austin Cindric to that lap total and the three teammates led 125 total laps or 62% of the race distance. At Talladega, both Blaney and Logano are three-time winners. While neither driver had their best races at the track last season, the Ford teammates are often some of the best at the big superspeedways and fantasy players should feel confident selecting either of these drivers this week, and Austin Cindric if desired as well.
However, for this lineup, we do want some Hendrick Motorsports and Chevrolet representation. With Byron's win at Daytona earlier this season, along with Hendrick and Chevrolet's speed this season in general, choosing one of those teammates makes sense as a bit of a hedge option against the Ford drivers. Chase Elliott (DK $9,000, FD $11,500) fits the bill nicely with two Talladega victories and eight top-10 finishes from his 18 series starts. Elliott led laps in both of those races last season as well as at Daytona earlier this year.
Deeper longshots are often a good play at Talladega. This week's choices include Todd Gilliland (DK $7,200, FD $6,500), who started third in both Talladega races last season, is one of those. The Front Row Motorsports driver has three top-10 finishes from six starts at the track and led two laps in the fall race last season. FRM often brings speed and the potential to win to Talladega and Daytona, and this week could be a good time for fantasy players to have Gilliland in their side. Erik Jones (DK $6,400, FD $5,000) is another to consider. Jones qualified fourth and finished 12th in the Daytona 500 while teammate Jimmie Johnson raced to the third finishing spot. Jones finished fifth at Talladega last fall and has eight top-10 finishes from 16 career starts there. From 2021 to 2023, he also had a run of four consecutive finishes of ninth or better at the track.
Lastly, Noah Gragson (DK $6,300, FD $5,500) could be a good option, too. Like Gilliland, Gragson will have Front Row Motorsports equipment this season, which should be a boost for him at the big superspeedways. Gragson finished third in the spring race last season with Stewart Haas despite starting that race 36th. Having won an Xfinity series race at the track, coupled with the FRM Ford powering him this week, Gragson could be a worthy value option for fantasy players this week.
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Picks for the Jack Link's 500
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Friday
Race Winner - Denny Hamlin +1400, Austin Cindric +1600
Top-Five Finish - Erik Jones +550
Top-10 Finish - John Hunter Nemechek +250
Since racing at Talladega can be unpredictable, the odds tend to be wider with good reason for wagerers to choose some longshots. While neither Denny Hamlin nor Austin Cindric should be considered longshots, both offer attractive odds. Hamlin has two prior wins at this track with a fifth-place finish in the fall of 2022, a third-place finish in the fall of 2023, and a 10th-place finish last fall. He was also one of the hottest drivers heading into the off week with four straight top-five finishes including two wins and a runner-up finish at Bristol.
The biggest consideration in choosing Hamlin this week is whether or not he can shift those fall race finishes to this spring race. Cindric also makes a compelling option. He offers better odds than either of his teammate and holds roughly the same chance of victory. Cindric led 59 laps at Daytona in February and finished second in the second stage before a final-lap crash eliminated him from contention. At Talladega, the Team Penske driver started in the front row in both visits last season and has a best finish of fifth from 2023. If the team's speed from Daytona carries through to Talladega, Cindric and his Penske teammates are going to be tough to beat.
One driver with comparatively good odds for a top-five finish this week is Erik Jones. It isn't every week that Jones would get a recommendation, but at Talladega there is reason to be optimistic. First, teammate and partial owner Jimmie Johnson drove one of Legacy Motor Club's Chevrolets to a third-place finish in the Daytona 500 despite starting 40th. Erik Jones started that race fourth through the qualifying duels and then finished 12th. At Talladega, the veteran driver has been quite consistent. He finished sixth, three times in a row, in 2022 and 2023 before finishing fifth in last fall's stop at the track. He has three top-fives and eight top-10s in total from 16 series Talladega starts. If Jones can avoid the wrecks, he would be a good choice to find a spot among the top five at the finish this Sunday.
Similarly, teammate John Hunter Nemechek could be a good value to grab a top-10 finish. Teammate to Jones, Nemechek finished fifth at Daytona in February and has a pair of eighth-place finishes at Talladega when he was driving for Front Row Motorsports back in 2020. Jones, Nemechek, and Legacy Motor Club impressed at Daytona earlier this season and both of these drivers should be capable of top finishes in Sunday's Jack Link's 500 at Talladega.
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