MMA Barometer: Belt Changes On The Horizon?

MMA Barometer: Belt Changes On The Horizon?

This article is part of our MMA Barometer series.

UFC 192 has major title implications in both the welterweight and light heavyweight divisions. Both weight classes should have at least part of a future championship contest set by the end of the night. The most exciting aspect of the card is that the winners of the two marquee light heavyweight fights will almost surely meet for a title tilt in early 2016.

Next Saturday marks UFC light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier's first opportunity to defend his belt. "DC" won the vacant championship from Anthony Johnson in May, and Alexander Gustafsson is a huge threat to Cormier's title. Gustafsson took Jon Jones to the limit and lost a razor thin unanimous decision against the former champion, which should give Gustafsson a lot of confidence against Cormier, who was beaten soundly by Jones. However, Gustafsson also suffered a first round TKO loss to Anthony Johnson in his last fight. This is important because Johnson was then beaten fairly easily by Cormier. It is hard to use common opponents to determine an outcome in this fight, but one known aspect of the fight is that Gustafsson has not fought a wrestler with the Olympic credentials of Cormier. Even though Gustafsson was able to effectively defend the takedowns of Jon Jones during their title fight, Jones does not have the wrestling skill possessed by Cormier. If Gustafsson is not able to stop Cormier's takedowns it could be a long night for "The Mauler."

Along with the light heavyweight title fight, there is a clash of top-five light heavyweights on the undercard. Rashad Evans returns to the Octagon after a two-year absence from the Octagon to tangle with Ryan Bader. The victor will likely get an opportunity to fight the winner of Cormier vs. Gustafsson. Bader and Evans, ranked fourth and fifth respectively, both have Division I wrestling pedigrees. Due to their wrestling skills the fight will most likely be contested in the stand-up realm because either fighter should be able to neutralize the other's takedown attempts. Both fighters possess above average knockout power, so a striking battle will create a good opportunity for a knockout finish. It seems that Evans has a slight advantage on the feet and he should be able to secure the victory against Bader.

In between light heavyweight tilts Johnny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley will participate in the co-main event, which will probably determine the next No. 1 contender at welterweight. These two fighters have a history of bad blood, as Hendricks emerged victorious against Woodley in a Big 12 wrestling tournament final in 2005. Woodley said on Instagram that he has, "Been wanting to punch him ever since." If Hendricks still holds a slight advantage in wrestling over Woodley, it could be a difficult fight for Woodley. In a recent interview with MMAmania.com Hendricks expressed he is unwilling to participate in stand-up wars anymore because he came out on the losing end of fights where he out struck his opponent when he battled with Georges St. Pierre and Robbie Lawler. "Big Rigg" is poised to return to his wrestling roots and employ a grinding grappling attack which will tire out his opponent. Woodley is not necessarily known for his cardio, so if Hendricks is able to take him down early, it could seriously affect the gas tank of Woodley and lead to an easy victory for Hendricks.

October 3rd should be an exciting night of fights, particularly because of the title implications in the three main bouts. Daniel Cormier finally gets an opportunity to defend his light heavyweight strap as he awaits the return of Jon Jones, and Rashad Evans makes his long awaited return to the Octagon. After these three highly anticipated contests, we will have a clearer picture of the title landscape in the welterweight and light heavyweight divisions.

As always, below is your MMA barometer with rising, falling, and check status fighters.

Rising


John Lineker
John Linker is certainly just as dangerous of a fighter at bantamweight as he was at flyweight. After missing weight in four of his eight flyweight fights, Lineker was essentially forced to move up to bantamweight by UFC brass. Lineker, a former top-ten UFC flyweight, had arguably the best knockout power in the flyweight division before being forced to move up in weight. However, after his latest performance against Francisco Rivera, it seems that "Hands of Stone" will still have the power advantage over most of his opponents at bantamweight. Lineker defeated Rivera by submission via guillotine choke in the first round of a wild slugfest at UFC 191. Both fighters traded punches for virtually the entire round, but Lineker's power eventually won out and hurt Rivera, which allowed Lineker to secure the choke and finish the fight. He has won seven of his last eight fights, and Lineker's momentum seems like it will continue at bantamweight. Even though he has not closed the door on a return to flyweight, for the time being Lineker should still be dangerous for any opponent in the bantamweight division and he will look to break into the top ten of the division with a victory in his next contest.
Next Fight: TBA

Ryan Bader
Ryan "Darth" Bader has been on an impressive four-fight winning streak since his knockout loss to Glover Teixeira in September 2013. Bader is currently ranked fourth in the UFC light heavyweight division and holds victories over formidable opponents Ovince St. Preux and Phil Davis in his last two fights. Bader looks to possibly secure a title shot with a victory over his next opponent, fifth-ranked UFC light heavyweight Rashad Evans. Bader, a former two-time Division I All-American wrestler at Arizona State University, employs effective takedowns and uses his wrestling base to smother his opponent. Many of Bader's victories have been by decision, but he has heavy hands and the ability to knock out any fighter in the light heavyweight division. A decision win over Phil Davis in his last fight is proof of Bader's wrestling prowess and makes his wrestling dangerous for any fighter in the division except for maybe UFC light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier. Bader and Cormier have had several public exchanges in which Cormier has shown no respect for Bader and seems to think he would have an easy night should he and Bader ever share the Octagon. Bader will look to beat a dangerous opponent in Evans in order to get an opportunity to prove Cormier (should he get by Alexander Gustaffson) wrong. Evans is a difficult matchup for Bader as he boasts Division I wrestling credentials and has a number of highlight reel knockouts on his resume. One advantage Bader has going into the fight is that Evans has been absent from competition for almost two years due to an unfortunate string of injuries. Bader should look to pressure Evans early to try to capitalize on any ring rust Evans may have. If Bader wins, he will almost certainly receive a title shot against the winner of Cormier vs. Gustafsson.
Next fight: Rashad Evans, UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson (October 3rd, 2015)

Uriah Hall
After one of the greatest runs in the history of The Ultimate Fighter, Uriah Hall stumbled out of the gate in the early part of his UFC career. Hall lost in his first two appearances in the Octagon, including The Ultimate Fighter finale championship fight against Kelvin Gastelum. During his time in the house, Hall demonstrated some of the most fearsome striking ability in recent memory. Once in the house, Hall finished all three of his opponents by spectacular knockout on the show. Following the show, his first two fights in the Octagon were surprisingly passive performances by Hall. Since that time it seems as if Hall has figured out the mental aspect of being in the UFC and he has won four of his last five fights, with his sole loss being by controversial split decision to Rafael Natal. Hall's next fight represents a huge step-up in competition as he faces No. 6-ranked UFC middleweight Gegard Mousasi. This will be Hall's first contest against an opponent ranked in the top-ten. Mousasi is an extremely experienced mixed martial artist and will most likely look to expose Hall's only perceived weakness by taking Hall down and looking to submit him from top position. Hall possesses above average takedown defense (76%) and may be able to keep the fight on the feet (in which case the fans will be in for an interesting fight). If the fight does stay standing, Hall should have a slight advantage against Mousasi, as Hall possesses possibly the most power in the division. Even if Mousasi is able to get the fight to the ground, Hall proved on The Ultimate Fighter that he has capable of finishing a fight via strikes from the bottom position. If Hall is able to emerge victorious, look for him to secure a top-five opponent for his next fight in order to eventually secure a shot at the middleweight title.
Next Fight: Gegard Mousasi, UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs. Nelson (September 26th, 2015)

Check Status


Dominic Cruz
Even with only one fight in the last four years, Dominick Cruz is still in title contention in the UFC bantamweight division. Since 2011 Cruz has suffered a rash of injuries which only allowed him to compete one time since that fight. Cruz never actually lost his belt, as he was stripped of the title because he was unable to compete for an extended period of time due to injury. In his one fight since 2011, Cruz put on a one-round destruction of then fifth-ranked bantamweight Takeya Mizugaki. After that fight in September 2014 Cruz was in line for a title shot but then suffered another devastating knee injury. Cruz has now recovered from his injury and will face T.J. Dillashaw for the UFC bantamweight title in January 2016. This will be an incredibly fast paced fight, as both fighters employ the same strategy. They each use fantastic footwork and high volumes of strikes to overwhelm their opponents. Coupling that tremendous pace with elite cardio should make for a thrilling fight. When you mix in the obvious animosity between Cruz and the entire Team Alpha Male fight camp, this has the recipe to be an epic bantamweight title bout. Cruz will look to regain the title he never lost, and the contest with Dillashaw is truly a toss-up if Cruz has maintained the form he showed against Mizugaki.
Next Fight: T.J. Dillashaw, UFC Fight Night 81 (January 17th, 2016)

Rashad Evans
Much like Dominick Cruz, Rashad Evan has faced multiple setbacks due to injury, which has kept him from competing in the UFC for almost two years. Despite his absence, Evans is still ranked in the top-five of the UFC light heavyweight division, and a victory in his next fight against No. 4-ranked UFC light heavyweight Ryan Bader may result in a title opportunity for Evans. This is a must-win fight for Evans because at the age of 35, the window for Evans to regain the light heavyweight strap may be closing. It will be interesting to see if Evans can maintain his championship abilities after coming back from a series of knee problems. Evans is an elite wrestler, but he also possesses lightning fast hands with good knockout power. It would seem that Evans and Bader will be able to neutralize each other's wrestling ability, so the fight will probably be contested mostly on the feet. When comparing resumes, it seems that Evans will have the advantage in the stand up. After seeing Bader's willingness to exchange in the Teixeira fight he could find himself in considerable danger if Evans is the same fighter as he was before his knee injury. Bader engaged in a firefight with Teixeira but came out on the losing end of a highlight reel knockout. Evans has better boxing skills than Bader and we could see a repeat of the outcome of the Teixeira fight on October 3 when Evans and Bader meet in the Octagon.
Next Fight: Ryan Bader, UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson (October 3rd, 2015)

Falling


Paul Felder
Paul Felder began his UFC career in a promising way by winning two fights in a row, but since that point he has lost back-to-back contests. Felder has not looked like the same fighter since stepping up in competition to fight No. 6-ranked UFC lightweight Edson Barboza and UFC veteran Ross Pearson. He was defeated soundly by unanimous decision by Barboza, and took the Pearson fight after having a little over one month since his Barboza fight. The fast turnaround was not kind to Felder, as he lost a close decision to Pearson. Pearson has assumed more of a gatekeeper role in the lightweight division, so Felder needs to win this type of fight if he wants to climb the ladder at 155 pounds. Even though he has lost two fights in a row, Felder puts on extremely exciting stand-up wars and has some of the most creative counter-striking in the division. Felder needs to win his next bout in order to stop his skid and begin to climb toward being a contender in the UFC lightweight division.
Next Fight: TBA

Jimi Manuwa
A loser of two out of his last three contests, Jimi Manuwa has struggled against the upper echelon fighters in the UFC light heavyweight division. The British born fighter has devastating striking power, but his power and striking ability were no match for Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson, as he suffered knockout losses in each contest. Manuwa has been very effective in fights against lesser competition, winning by stoppage in three out of four victories. At 35 years old, it is discouraging that Manuwa has struggled against the elite of the division, as he is running out of time to evolve as a mixed martial artist so he can compete with younger elite fighters in the division. However, even in losing efforts, Manuwa is always willing to exchange on the feet and usually puts on exciting fights. Only one of his fights in the UFC has gone past the second round, so Manuwa is a good fighter to watch if you are looking for an exciting fight. Hopefully Manuwa is given an opportunity to prove himself against a top-ten opponent in his next fight, as his only two losses have come against the first and second ranked fighters in the light heavyweight division.
Next Fight: TBA

John Dodson
With his second loss to UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson, John Dodson is in a tough place in the division. Their first fight was a close unanimous decision win for Johnson, but at UFC 191 Dodson was beaten soundly by the champion. This is bad for Dodson because it will not be an attractive option to give Dodson another title shot against Johnson because there is not much question of the outcome of the fight. Even more concerning are Dodson's performances since tearing his ACL in the summer of 2014. Dodson has long been known for his amazing speed and for possessing some of the best knockout power in the flyweight division. However, since coming back from his injury, Dodson has put forth a lackluster decision win against Zach Makovsky and then a poor performance against Johnson at UFC 191. There is no shame in losing to arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, but it is discouraging that Dodson was able to keep the fight so close the first time, and then was dominated in the second fight with Johnson. Dodson is not necessarily dead in the water in the flyweight division, as he always has the option to move up to bantamweight, where he already holds a knockout victory over UFC bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw.
Next Fight: TBA

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Evan Dahl
Evan Dahl is a law student who has been a die-hard MMA fan for over a decade. Outside of MMA, he roots for the Broncos, Brewers and Bucks.
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