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Carolina made a big gamble when they signed Kotkaniemi to an eight-year, $38.56 million contract in March 2022. On the one hand, he was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft and possessed enough upside to make that deal a potential steal for the Hurricanes. At the same time, though, Carolina was locking down a center who had yet to record more than 34 points in a single campaign. Fortunately for the Hurricanes, the first season of Kotkaniemi's contract was encouraging. He set career highs in goals (18) and points (43) in 82 games despite averaging a somewhat modest 14:44 of ice time. In terms of 5v5 points per 60 minutes, the 23-year-old ranked a solid sixth on the team with 1.70 among players who logged at least 10 contests. Kotkaniemi should see his role with the team grow this season while serving primarily as Carolina's second-line center. Combine that with his continued development, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him take another modest step forward offensively.
Kotkaniemi arrived in Carolina last season after signing a one-year, $6.1 million offer sheet in August 2021. The Canadiens declined to match, allowing the No. 3 overall pick from 2018 to leave town. Kotkaniemi played all of last season at age 21, so time is on his side, but his 12 goals and 29 points in 66 games make the contract seem like a massive overpay. Clearly believing in Kotkaniemi's ability, Carolina doubled down and signed him to a new eight-year, $38.5 million extension this past March. Kotkaniemi may get there eventually given his pedigree, but it's unlikely to happen in 2022-23, making him a fade in most fantasy formats.
Kotkaniemi had a strong freshman season (11 goals, 34 points in 79 games) for Montreal back in 2018-19, but the former No. 3 overall pick has managed just 11 goals and 28 points in 92 games over the past two years. He was also a healthy scratch for each of Montreal's final two games against the Lightning in the Stanley Cup final. While nothing in Kotkaniemi's profile suggests a breakout is coming this season, it's important to remember the Finn turned just 21 years of age this past July. He's played a lot of NHL hockey for such a youngster and that should help him down the line. For now, Kotkaniemi's value is mostly limited to keeper and dynasty formats.
After debuting as an 18-year-old rookie and picking up 34 points in 79 games in 2018-19, Kotkaniemi appeared in just 36 regular-season games with the Canadiens last year, picking up eight points over that span. The third overall pick from the 2018 draft did, however, fare far better during his time in the minors, racking up 13 points in 13 contests, and he played pretty well in the bubble, potting four goals in 10 playoff contests. The 20-year-old pivot will be a full-time player for the big club in 2020-21, centering the Habs' third line and second power-play unit, but it would be unwise to predict a massive leap in production from Kotkaniemi this year. He may be worth a flier in the later rounds of deeper formats, but he'll likely go undrafted in most fantasy leagues.
Kotkaniemi enjoyed a relatively successful rookie campaign in 2018-19, posting 11 goals and 23 assists while firing 134 shots on net in 79 games. Along with rookie camp and preseason action, that sounds like a lot of hockey for an 18-year-old, and it was. He tired over the course of the year, and as a result, his playing time dipped below 13 minutes per contest over the final five weeks of the season. Coach Claude Julien definitely gave the young Finn a chance to succeed, gifting him offensive zone starts 61.9 percent of the time, but it's hardly surprising that the teenager wasn't able to produce eye-popping offensive totals in his first season as a pro. With a full year in the NHL now under his belt, fantasy owners can expect Kotkaniemi to receive increased playing time in 2019-20, which should allow the third overall pick from the 2018 draft to improve his production across the board. The 6-foot-2 forward underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in April, but he should be ready to go for training camp.
Kotkaniemi spent 2017-18 playing for Assat Pori of SM-liiga -- the top Finnish hockey league -- posting 29 points over 57 games. It wasn't until a strong showing at U18s in April that the 18-year-old shot up draft boards, eventually being taken third overall in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft by the Canadiens. He possesses an elite mind for the game and formidable size at 6-foot-2 but may need to improve his skating to contribute at the highest level. He impressed the brass enough in rookie camp that they wouldn't rule him out for the Opening Night roster, but the most likely scenario involves him beginning the campaign in the AHL and potentially debuting at some point later in the season.
