This article is part of our Prospects Analysis series.
The greatest hockey tournament in the world [Well, except perhaps for the Stanley Cup playoffs and the Olympics – Ed.], the IIHF World Junior Championship, begins Dec. 26 in Montreal and Toronto. Get ready to follow the first post-Christmas hockey action with our annual preview.
Note: The parenthetical numbers next to some players' names correspond to their ranking in our recently updated Top 100 NHL prospects list.
UNITED STATES
Overview: Team USA has countless offensive weapons at their disposal and they figure to get decent goaltending, but they could struggle on the back end. They have the personnel to outscore other teams, which could very well become a necessity as the tournament progresses.
Goalies: Team USA is expected to bring three goaltenders to the tournament: the Flames' Tyler Parsons (85), Toronto's Joseph Woll, and Jake Oettinger (who is expected to be a first-round pick in 2017); all three seem to have a realistic chance of earning the starting position. Oettinger (1.87 GAA, .932 save percentage in 15 games for Boston University) is having the best season of the trio, but would the United States really put its tournament life in the hands of a kid who turned 18 years old just last week? My gut says that Parsons will get the first crack at the No. 1 gig, but it remains no sure thing.
Defense: The thing that stands out among the United States defensive corps is its lack of size. The Americans don't have a single defenseman over
The greatest hockey tournament in the world [Well, except perhaps for the Stanley Cup playoffs and the Olympics – Ed.], the IIHF World Junior Championship, begins Dec. 26 in Montreal and Toronto. Get ready to follow the first post-Christmas hockey action with our annual preview.
Note: The parenthetical numbers next to some players' names correspond to their ranking in our recently updated Top 100 NHL prospects list.
UNITED STATES
Overview: Team USA has countless offensive weapons at their disposal and they figure to get decent goaltending, but they could struggle on the back end. They have the personnel to outscore other teams, which could very well become a necessity as the tournament progresses.
Goalies: Team USA is expected to bring three goaltenders to the tournament: the Flames' Tyler Parsons (85), Toronto's Joseph Woll, and Jake Oettinger (who is expected to be a first-round pick in 2017); all three seem to have a realistic chance of earning the starting position. Oettinger (1.87 GAA, .932 save percentage in 15 games for Boston University) is having the best season of the trio, but would the United States really put its tournament life in the hands of a kid who turned 18 years old just last week? My gut says that Parsons will get the first crack at the No. 1 gig, but it remains no sure thing.
Defense: The thing that stands out among the United States defensive corps is its lack of size. The Americans don't have a single defenseman over 6-foot-2, and they're going to dress numerous blueliners who don't even measure up to the 6-foot mark. Bruins prospect Charlie McAvoy (33) was on the team last season, and he's going to get a boatload of playing time in all situations. He's cut down on the number of high-risk plays he attempts during his time at Boston University. Sabres prospect Casey Fitzgerald and the Flames' Adam Fox are both assets on the power play, but both are undersized and can struggle at times against bigger opponents. Another Bruins prospect, Ryan Lindgren, offers little offensively, but he rarely makes mistakes with the puck. Chad Krys (Blackhawks) is another potential returnee, but he's had a rough freshman season at BU and is no lock to make the team. The wild card here is Caleb Jones (Oilers). The younger brother of NHLer Seth Jones, he has the mobility and smarts to give Team USA plenty of quality minutes in the tournament.
Forwards: The loss of Canucks prospect Brock Boeser (6) to a wrist injury is a big one, but Team USA has the depth to overcome it. Future Coyote Clayton Keller (3) has as much offensive ability as any prospect in the world, and he recently returned after missing a month due to an upper-body injury. The Leafs' Jeremy Bracco (34) and the Blackhawks' Alex DeBrincat (44) are both among the OHL leaders in scoring, and Ottawa prospect Colin White (19) is one of the best two-way players in college hockey. Another future Senator in Logan Brown (31) joins Blues prospect Tage Thompson (68) and Minnesota's Jordan Greenway (69) to give Team USA three monstrous physical specimens who stand 6-foot-5 or taller. Kieffer Bellows (66) and Luke Kunin (95) were first-round picks by the Isles and Wild, respectively, this past summer; Jack Roslovic (Jets) has been one of the best rookies in the AHL this season. With difference-makers at all three forward positions, this is one of the deepest groups for Team USA in recent memory.
CANADA
Overview: Team Canada's depth is severely compromised due to the fact that they didn't receive any NHL players on loan. They were never going to get guys like Mitch Marner or Travis Konency, but the Coyotes' Jakob Chychrun (32) and Lawson Crouse as well as the Isles' Anthony Beauvillier (21) are playing minimal roles for their teams even when they aren't watching from the press box.
Goalies: The Canadians apparently decided early on that future Flyer Carter Hart (87) would be their starter. He's been the best goaltender in the WHL this season (1.85 GAA, .928 save percentage in 24 games for Everett), so it's hard to find fault with that decision. Connor Ingram (Lightning) gives Canada a solid backup option should Hart falter, which is good because there's no third goaltender on the roster. Ingram may get one game against Latvia or Slovakia, but this figures to be Hart's show from the get-go. Most of Team Canada's struggles in recent years have been because of poor goaltending, but that shouldn't be an issue this time around.
Defense: There are plenty of good players on the back end for Canada, but I'm not convinced they fit well together as a group. As the lone returnee, Sens prospect Thomas Chabot (52) is probably going to play upwards of 25 minutes a night. Huge (we're talking 6-foot-5) Flyers signee Philippe Myers (89) and Kings youngster Kale Clague are both mobile and good with the puck, but neither is what you would call a shutdown defenseman. Stud Carolina prospect Jake Bean (38) can run a power play, but he's missed nearly the entire season due to a broken hand. Nashville's Dante Fabbro (64) and Montreal's Noah Juulsen will be counted on to provide steady minutes; however, Fabbro may struggle due to the fact that he's the only collegiate defenseman playing with a bunch of CHL players, and while Juulsen is playing considerably better this season, he's coming off a hugely disappointing 2015-16. I think Team Canada picked the right seven guys; they just don't have the personnel at their disposal that we're used to seeing.
Forwards: While there are plenty of questions about the Canadians, they do have the best player in the tournament in Coyotes prospect Dylan Strome (1). Strome should be playing in the NHL right now, and coach Dominique Ducharme figures to send him over the boards early and often. Unlike the defensive choices, I wasn't crazy about Canada's final two choices up front. Their last two cuts were Ducks prospect Sam Steel (82) and future Bruin Zach Senyshyn (27), and I think both players could have played a significant role in the tournament. Steel's hard work on the forecheck would have made him an ideal candidate for the 13th forward position, at the very least. Canada has a pair of elite offensive weapons in Islanders 2015 first-rounder Mathew Barzal (5) and 2016's No. 3 overall pick, Pierre-Luc Dubois (13) of the Jackets to go along with 2016 first-rounders Tyson Jost (25), Michael McLeod (45) and Julien Gauthier. They also have Tampa prospect Taylor Raddysh (71), who was leading the OHL in scoring with 61 points in 28 games when he left for Team Canada's training camp. Canada has plenty of talent up front, but I think the key to this forward core is a pair of 2015 Tampa Bay draft picks: Anthony Cirelli (86) and Mitchell Stephens. Both have the ability to be major contributors at both ends of the rink, which could become a necessity if the defense falters.
FINLAND
Overview: The Finns have plenty of talented players, but they're a very young team. As many as four players in their lineup could be first-round picks in the 2017 NHL draft. It would be foolish to write them off just because they don't have the veterans on their roster that some of the other teams in the tournament do.
Goalies: Of the three goaltenders that Finland currently has on the roster, only Markus Ruusu (a sixth-round pick by Dallas this year) has been drafted. Both Karlous Kaarlehto and Veini Vehvilainen are eligible for the 2017 draft. Ruusu has actually had the worst year of the three. Don't be surprised if Vehvilainen emerges as the No. 1 guy.
Defense: The issue for Finland's back end is that it's very top-heavy. Vancouver's Olli Juolevi (16) and the Wings' Vili Saarijarvi are both terrific prospects who figure to play massive minutes. Urho Vaakanainen is a lock to be a first-round pick in the 2017 draft, while Robin Salo could slide into the late first round as well. Vaakanainen is known for his mobility, while Salo is a calming defensive presence. The Finns always seem to play well as a team, which should help mitigate some of the struggles they may face due to their youth.
Forwards: They are going to have Patrik Laine or Jesse Puljujarvi at their disposal, but there are still plenty of talented forwards on the Finnish roster. Panthers prospect Henrik Borgstrom (70) has played very well in his freshman season at the University of Denver, while 'Canes prospect Janne Kuokkanen (59) has been an offensive force in his first season for OHL London. Otto Koivula was one of my favorite under-the-radar picks in the 2016 draft, as the Islanders snagged him in the fourth round. Finland's most talented forward is Eeli Tolvanen, who could very well be a top-five pick in the 2017 draft. He's a magician on the offensive zone who he excels at getting his shot off with a defender on top of him. Tolvanen has already committed to Boston College for 2017-18. Kristian Vesalainen, a massive power forward with good hands, is another player who figures to be selected in the top half of Round 1 in 2017. It's quite the underrated group.
RUSSIA
Overview: On the surface, this appears to be one of Russia's weaker teams, but they have the advantage of having the best goaltender in the tournament, which is sometimes all you need over a two-week period.
Goalies: Russia is going to go as far as Ilya Samsonov (8) takes them. The 19-year-old Caps prospect has been one of the best goaltenders in the KHL over the last two seasons, and he played brilliantly when given the chance at last year's tournament. I doubt the Russian's will make the mistake of underusing him again this time around.
Defense: This is going to be the area where Russia struggles the most. I have the Habs' Mikhail Sergachev (9) currently ranked as the best defensive prospect in the NHL, but he's going to need some help. Sergachev can run the Russian power play and play massive minutes at even strength; Sergey Zborovskiy, a Rangers prospect who's one of the most improved defensive prospects in the league (plus-51 in 28 games for WHL Regina) can help on the penalty kill, but assistance will still be required from some unheralded players.
Forwards:Kirill Kaprizov (29) has gone from a fifth-round pick (by the Wild) in the 2015 draft to one of the most dynamic scorers in the KHL. He drives the puck to the tough areas of the ice despite being undersized, and he plays with an edge to his game. His consistent play is going to be a huge asset for a team full of inconsistent players. Denis Gurianov (Stars) and Yakov Trenin (Predators) are elite talents who have yet to show any ability to produce on a consistent basis. The Russians are going to need 2016 Flyers first-rounder German Rubtsov to come up big at both ends of the rink. It was surprising that Klim Kostin, who has a chance to be a top-five pick this June, was left off the roster.
SWEDEN
Overview: Once again the Swedes enter the tournament with a strong, balanced roster. They may not have the star power of some of the other teams, but they have more than enough talent to bring home another gold medal.
Goalies: Sweden's top two goaltenders – Felix Sandstrom of the Flyers and Filip Gustavsson of the Penguins – may end up playing each other in Metropolitan Division action one day. Gustavsson is the better prospect, although consistency has been an issue for him in the past. Still, just about every time Sandstrom has played for the national team, he's struggled. I expect Gustavsson to open the tournament as the starter.
Defense: Sweden is without defenseman Timothy Liljegren, a kid who could potentially be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft, but has missed the vast majority of the season due to mono. Still, the defensive corps for Sweden features a nice mix of stay-at-home defenders and mobile guys who excel at moving the puck. Jacob Larsson (53) began the season in Anaheim before being returned to his club team in Frolunda. Oliver Kylington (90) has been a much improved player in all areas of the game in his second AHL season, which should have him well on his way toward joining the Flames; Gabriel Carlsson (Blue Jackets) and Jacob Moverare (Kings) give the Swedes a pair of steady, responsible defenders.
Forwards: Much like their defensive group, the Swedes seem to have all bases covered up front. The Sabres' Alexander Nylander (11) has as high of a floor as any top prospect in the league. Filip Ahl's first season in the WHL has been a rousing success, while Joel Eriksson Ek (65) already got an NHL taste with the Wild and has been playing against elite competition for the past several years. Throw into the mix Jonathan Dahlen (Senators), Rasmus Asplund (Sabres), and highly rated 2017 draft prospect Elias Petersson, and you have a group that's capable of doing plenty of damage.
OTHERS TO WATCH
Filip Chlapik, C, Ottawa Senators / Team Denmark (92) – A 2015 second-rounder, he's taken a huge leap in production this year with 20 goals and 44 points in 26 games for QMJHL Charlottetown.
Nico Hischier, C, Team Switzerland – Just 17, he has 48 points in 31 games for QMJHL Halifax; some think he has the talent to push for the top overall spot in the 2017 draft.
Adam Huska, G, New York Rangers / Team Slovakia – A seventh-round pick in 2015, he's come out of basically nowhere to develop into one of the better goaltending prospects around. Huska is currently a freshman at UConn, where he owns a .926 save percentage through 10 starts.