Russell Henley

Russell Henley

35-Year-Old Golfer
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2024 Fantasy Outlook
Henley picked up his fourth career win at the WWT Championship in the fall of 2022. After early struggles in 2023, Henley closed the season with 13 top-20s in his final 16 events. It was yet another masterclass with the ball-striking ranking first in driving accuracy and second in proximity to the hole. Henley was also 18th in scrambling, but just 120th in SG: Putting. While the ball-striking makes the 34-year-old's floor pretty high, the struggles on the greens over the last few years are the reason he hasn't seen the winner's circle on a more consistent basis. Expect Henley to be challenging for a spot at the TOUR Championship again in 2024. Read Past Outlooks
Surges with Sunday 62
September 2, 2024
Henley fired a nine-under 62 on Sunday at the TOUR Championship to finish in a share of fourth place.
ANALYSIS
Henley started the final round outside the top-10 but surged up the leaderboard with an eagle and eight birdies (to go along with one bogey) en route to the low round of the day. He gained 4.4 strokes with his short game Sunday and led the field for the week in SG: Around the green. It's Henley's fifth top-5 result of 2024.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Since joining the PGA Tour in 2013, Henley's performance can be described as nothing other than good. Not great and not bad, but good. He's never ended the season in the top-10 of the FedEx, yet he's never finished outside the top-100. He's made over $3 million in a season just once and never finished below $1 million. What's encouraging is how consistent his iron play has remained over the last three seasons, where he has ranked at least sixth in SG: Approach and 18th in GIR percentage. His 1.19 strokes gained per round in 2021-22 ranked 16th on the PGA Tour and was the highest mark of his career. Still at just 33 years old, there's hope Henley can pair an average putter with his elite level ball-striking more often in 2022-23.
Henley has always been a good player on the PGA Tour, on the cusp of something better, yet he's never found that extra gear. He came closest in 2017 when he picked up a victory and more than $3.4 million, but the three seasons that followed left a lot to be desired. He started his way back in 2020-21 when he earned two third-place finishes and more than $2.5 million, but it seems like his ceiling is still south of $4 million. As such, he's not a great salary cap option this season, but he'll have plenty of value in draft leagues.
Henley took a big step in ball striking last season, ranking top-10 in both SG: Approach and proximity to the hole. He was also top-15 on Tour in scrambling. While Henley isn't the longest hitter, he has always been pretty accurate throughout his career. If his putter ever comes around to where it was at the beginning of his career, we could see a breakout season for the former Georgia Bulldog.
Unless you are an elite golfer, any season that ends with your PGA Tour card for the following season is a good one. It that sense, Henley has had seven good seasons on the PGA Tour. However, he set the bar pretty high by topping the $2 million mark his first three seasons on the PGA Tour and he further extended it three season ago when he topped $3.4 million. With a number just over $1.1 million, Henley is not quite a "must-have," but he should be given strong consideration in salary cap formats this season.
Prior to last season, Henley had spent five full seasons on the PGA Tour and he'd picked-up wins in three of those five seasons. He also cracked the $2 million barrier in four of his first five season on the PGA Tour. Last season however, he did neither. The 2017-2018 season wasn't a complete failure, after all, he finished inside the top-100 on the FedEx points list, but it certainly wasn't a success. Henley definitely took a step back last season, but there's no reason to think he'll continue down that path. The upside is there and his floor should be just about where he finished last season. In other words, a good recipe for a salary cap pick.
Henley had a solid season last year, but it's not quite what you'd expect from someone who finished top-20 on the FedEx list. Henley did pick up a victory at the Shell Houston Open, but he posted only two other top-5s during the season. It didn't hurt that one of those top-5s, was a third-place finish at the Tour Championship, but still, his resume from last season doesn't seem to add up to $3.4 million in earnings. Henley was a two-time winner heading into the season, so his numbers from last season are not that surprising, but his earnings from last season were quite the jump from his previous high of $2.5 million. With that in mind, $3.4 million is probably too much to spend on Henley in salary cap leagues this season.
Henley started his PGA Tour career in-style with a win in his first year and an earnings total over $2 million. He followed that with another nearly identical season in year-two. Year -three was missing the win, but he still managed to climb above the $2 million mark. As for what happened in year-four -- that's hard to say as Henley had his worst season as a pro on the PGA Tour. With three seasons above the $2 million plateau on his resume already, he's primed for a bounce-back this year. As such, he's a great salary cap candidate this season. In drafts, he should go near the sixth or seventh round.
It hasn't taken Henley long to adjust to life on the PGA Tour. In his rookie season, Henley earned five top-25s, three top-10s, and one win. In his second season, he earned five top-25s, three top-10s and one win. See a pattern here? The difference between his first and second seasons was about $500k. Normally we'd like to see more of a jump between seasons, but considering last year was just his second year on the PGA Tour, it looks pretty impressive. There's no telling where his ceiling is, but it looks pretty high right now. Henley comes as a high price this season, but he is worth a look in salary cap leagues. In draft leagues he could go early in the 2nd round.
Henley peaked early in the 2013 season with a win at the Sony Open, but he struggled to build on that win the rest of the way. Players who have that type of resume are hard to get behind because you never know if they can find the magic for one week again during the current year. As such, Henley is a no go in salary cap leagues and probably should go in the 50-60 range in drafts.
Henley came on late in 2012, winning twice in a three-week span with a third-place finish mixed in. It was an impressive comeback for Henley, who didn’t have a top-10 until mid-July. In the end, he finished with seven in 26 starts and goes to the PGA TOUR via the Web.com Tour ripe with confidence off the hot finish. If he drives it like he did last year – he was sixth in total driving, which is the combination of distance and accuracy – then he should be in contention early and often on the PGA TOUR in 2013. If his name sounds familiar it might be because he won in 2011 as an amateur, the same feat as Harris English, who made $1.2 million as a PGA TOUR rookie in 2012.
More Fantasy News
Getting closer at majors
July 21, 2024
Henley closed with a two-under 69 on Sunday to finish in solo fifth place at the Open Championship.
ANALYSIS
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Strong finish in Connecticut
June 25, 2024
Henley shot a five-under 65 to finish tied in the 48th spot in the Travelers Championship.
ANALYSIS
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Leads in SG: Putting at U.S. Open
June 17, 2024
Henley closed with a three-under 67 on Sunday at the U.S. Open to finish in a share of seventh place.
ANALYSIS
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T10 at Wells Fargo Championship
May 12, 2024
Henley closed with a four-under 67 in the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship to finish in a share of 10th place.
ANALYSIS
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T12 at RBC Heritage
April 23, 2024
Henley shot a three-under 68 on Sunday at the RBC Heritage tying for 12th place at the tournament.
ANALYSIS
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