This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Quicken Loans National
TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm (7,107 yards, par 70)
$7.1M Purse
$1,278,000 and 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner
Setting the Stage
POTOMAC, MD – Stationed in the Northeast for a third straight week, the PGA TOUR circles the wagons near the U.S. capital for the Quicken Loans National. The event is hosted by Tiger Woods' TGR Live, so it's no surprise to see the living legend attend this event. The par-70 layout plays deceptively long with six par-4s over 450 yards and features thick Kentucky bluegrass rough and tall fescue should players miss the fairway. Contributing further to the difficulty are eight holes with water in play. Despite the challenge, players raved about this course last season which prompted a return in 2018. TPC Potomac is not quite like the U.S. Open, but expect a higher-scoring affair – especially in a weaker field this week.
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Recent Champions
2017 – Kyle Stanley
2016 – Billy Hurley III
2015 – Troy Merritt
2014 – Justin Rose
2013 – Bill Haas
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Nick Watney
2010 – Justin Rose
2009 – Tiger Woods
2008 – Anthony Kim
Key Stats to Victory
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green
Ball Strikers Unite
Since Tiger helped get this event off the ground in 2007, the venues selected have primarily been challenging courses that demand precision ball striking. TPC Potomac was no different last season, proving out that 73 percent of the scoring advantage can be traced to the tee-to-green game, much higher than the 64 percent Tour average. This obviously makes it important to target players who have really hit the ball well this year, so look no further than Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green as your starting point. Dissecting this stat further to approach shots, we can see this accounts for the largest portion of the Tee-to-Green advantage players have enjoyed at TPC Potomac. Thus, Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green is a great secondary stat. If a player is a great overall ball striker and most of his advantage comes from Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green, he probably makes a great fit for TPC Potomac.
Yahoo Value Picks
Best of the Best
Rickie Fowler, $46 – Fowler is on a roll lately with a great finish to the U.S. Open and five top-25 finishes his last six events. If there's one player who has a good course history and elite talent, it's Fowler. Don't overthink his ability in this field, just nab him and watch the scores light up.
Francesco Molinari, $43 – The Italian has been on a roll recently with a win, runner-up, and top-25 his last three events worldwide. Though he is priced a bit steep at $43, he's one of the best players in the field and fits the ball striking profile very well.
Marc Leishman, $42 – Leishman is a solid option mostly because of the lack of talent in the field this week. The Aussie has three top-10s in eight career starts at this event and may be overlooked by other players who prefer Fowler or Molinari in the top slot.
Bargain Bin
Tiger Woods, $35 – For some reason, Yahoo does not value Tiger at his own event that he has won twice in his career. Yes, he's playing this track for the first time, but Woods is top-5 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and this course rewards that.
J.B. Holmes, $32 – Though a bit wild off the tee at times, Holmes should fare quite well at TPC Potomac since he won't need to hit that many drivers with his immense length. Holmes finished third and second his last two events so he's clearly in good form, and he is a great value at $32.
Joaquin Niemann, $28 – Niemann missed the cut at the St. Jude, but in the two previous events he carded top-10s. He also finished sixth at the Texas Open in April. He has some risk, but the momentum he carries from his recent play should at least get him inside the cut line.
Strategy Tips on Yahoo this week (based on $200 standard salary cap)
There are only three players over $40 in this week's field, meaning you probably need to grab at least one of Fowler, Molinari, or Leishman. These guys along with Tiger represent great bets for victory that you simply can't ignore in a weaker field. Try to avoid more than one $20 option since there are so many middle-tier values this week.
