Weekly PGA Preview: Texas Children's Houston Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Texas Children's Houston Open

Memorial Park Golf Course
Houston, TX

The PGA Tour heads to Houston for the Texas Children's Houston Open.

If you've played fantasy golf or even just followed the sport long enough, you know that things can change on one hole, heck even one swing. By change, I'm referring to how a golfer is playing.

Viktor Hovland entered this past week in rough shape. He'd missed three straight cuts and to paraphrase an unnamed writer, perhaps the one you're reading now, "expecting anything from Hovland right now is a bit foolish". That changed however this past week, and it changed fast. I noticed the change while following his shots closely on Thursday. He was hitting fairways, his irons were pretty sharp and while he wasn't scoring quite yet, you could see that he was starting to come around.

The scoring soon followed and as we entered Sunday, the only question left was, can he close? The answer was a resounding yes. Not only did he seal the deal, but he closed like the old Hovland. At one point he was three back of Justin Thomas, but Hovland was undeterred. While he did get some help from Thomas down the stretch, make no mistake, Hovland went out and won this event. Whereas most players were stumbling down the stretch, Hovland was thriving.

Hovland mentioned that he felt that there were many bad swings from him in the final round, but I honestly didn't seem them. What I saw was a guy who was locked in, maybe not as much from the tee, but definitely into the green and once on the green, Hovland was simply brilliant.

So what's the point here? The point is that the best golfers in the world are so good at what they do that a slump buster is always just a shot away. The problem of course, as Hovland proved this past week is that we as the viewer never know when this turn around is coming. I saw it coming once the event had started, but I obviously had no clue entering the week. That's both the fun part as the aggravating part of fantasy golf. It's so difficult, yet if you ever happen to hit on a hunch, you feel incredible.

Okay, onto this week. We've got a top-heavy field as the best in the world get ready for the Masters in two weeks. I should note that first place this week pays more than most of the other non-signature events. Something to consider when picking your OAD players.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Stephan Jaeger shot a final round 67 on his way to one-stroke victory over five players, including Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (7-2) 

When I mentioned this field was top-heavy, I was not kidding. You'll see what I'm talking about when I get the third-favorite this week. As for Scheffler, he's been okay this season, but by his standards, he's been awful. Zero wins at this point in the season is simply not acceptable. Yes, he had the hand injury, and perhaps that has hampered him more than we know, but he's just not been the same guy this season that we all got used to over the past few years. With that said, I just got done writing that these guys can turn it around on a dime, so I would not be shocked at all to see Scheffler win, after all, he already has two runner-ups, but at this price, the value is not there.

Rory McIlroy (13-2)

As opposed to Scheffler, McIlroy has been great this season capturing two signature events already, but now we're getting close to the part of the schedule that's been a thorn in his side for a decade and I'm referring of course to the majors. Since this is not a signature event, I have to imagine that Rory is using this week as a tune-up to the Masters and I would also have to imagine that Augusta is perhaps the only thing on his mind right now. With that in mind, I have a hard time believing McIlroy can pull off another win this week.    

Aaron Rai (28-1)

Honestly, I can't remember if I've ever seen odds jump this much from the favorites to the next player in line, possibly the Mexico events a few years ago where the field had Jon Rahm and Tony Finau at the top and then nothing much behind that. Anyway, as for Rai, he's the third-favorite this week because his track record here is solid. Rai has two top-10s and a top-20 in three starts here, which is great, but nothing inside the top-5 is a little worrisome. Rai has played well in his past three starts however, two top-15s at signature events and a T4 in Mexico, so maybe he finds that top-5 this year and perhaps something better.   

THE NEXT TIER

J.J. Spaun (35-1)

This is an interesting event because if McIlroy or Scheffler bring anything near their A-game, then everyone else is the field is truly a long shot, but if this is more of a tune-up, then you've got a bunch of guys getting great odds to win. Spaun enters this week off a disappointing loss to McIlroy in a playoff at the PLAYERS, and while that must be devastating to come so close only to lose in a playoff, one thing we know about Spaun is that he can get hot for a few weeks and if he rolls any momentum in from the PLAYERS, then he could be a factor in Houston. His track record here is a bit odd as he's never missed a cut in four starts, but he's also never cracked the top-30. 

Min Woo Lee (35-1)

Lee is going to win at some point this season, but first he needs to figure out how to avoid that one blow up round. Lee was cruising at the PLAYERS a couple weeks ago, but a 3rd-round 78 sent him off the leader board. I know, putting four good rounds together is kind of the point to being a good golfer, but Lee has shown so much at times this year it makes me think that he's very close. He'll be a first-timer in Houston, so that's not great, but I think he has the skills to make a serious charge.

Stephan Jaeger (45-1)  

I'm generally not a fan of siding with a defending champ that doesn't have much experience defending a title, but this week is a little different because a lot of that attention that the defending champ would normally get, will probably be routed to the two guys at the top of the odds chart, especially considering one of them almost won here last time. Jaeger showed a lot of grit fighting off Scheffler this past year and if he could do it out of nowhere, perhaps he can do it as the defending champ.  

LONG SHOTS

Sahith Theegala (50-1)

I refuse to believe that Theegala is going to stay down much longer. He showed some signs of life this past week at the Valspar, but in the end, he didn't have enough shots to be a factor, still, I saw some things in him this past week that I saw in Hovland. Yes, Hovland is further along, but we all know how fast it can turn around. Theegala's track record here is just okay, with two top-30s and a T61 in three starts. This pick is based more on a hunch that he's going to find his game sometime soon.  

Davis Riley (110-1)          

Riley has a couple things going for him this week and honestly, I'm a little surprised his number is this high. Don't get me wrong, I don't think he should be less than 50-1, but 60-1 seems more reasonable than 110-1. Anyhow, Riley doesn't have any high-end finishes here, but he has finished inside the top-30 in each of his three starts at this event. He's also coming off a nice T7 this past week at the Valspar, so we know his form is solid entering the week.    

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Aaron Rai – This might be the only time all season that all the OAD selections in your pool have guys with odds higher than 20-1. I mentioned that the purse is bigger this week than a normal non-signature event, but it's still not enough to go with either McIlroy or Scheffler, so you're left with all these guys in the mid-tier range. Rai looks like the best option of the bunch, but be warned, he's going to be very popular.     

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Stephan Jaeger – This is where things get interesting because there aren't a lot of guys with high-end track records here, but Jaeger is certainly one of them. The thing is, I'm not alone in wanting to stay away from the defending champions, so I'm not sure how popular Jaeger will be this week. Under normal circumstances, with a handful of guys at the top to choose from, I don't think he'd be that popular, but in a week with seemingly only a handful of options, he might be somewhat popular.  

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Davis Riley – Ownership is going to be all over the place this week and even with that said, Riley should fall through the cracks, if for no other reason than his odds being where they are. As mentioned earlier, I don't think his odds should be that high, which then makes him a viable option for OAD purposes. Most OAD owners won't go this low, so if you use him, you should be the only one.    

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy – Let's see if we can get a winner two weeks in a row. McIlroy certainly could win this week, his game is exactly where it needs to be right now, but I'm wondering where his head is at. As the final tune-up before the Masters, I have to imagine he'll be peaking ahead just a bit. Now, is he good enough to win this week while looking ahead? Sure, but it's not likely. Beyond that, you'd be crazy to burn McIlroy in your OAD in a non-signature event or a major. He's too big of a chip to use outside the biggest purses.  

This Week: Stephan Jaeger – Some weeks you absolutely love your pick, and some weeks are just meh. This is a meh week. The good news is, whether you like your pick or not has no bearing on how they perform, so perhaps by the end of the week I'll be amped up about this pick. It's not that I don't like Jaeger, I do, but I'm a little concerned about him defending the title. With that said, I do like how he's played here the past two years, and his form is good enough to make another run in Houston.                               

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Aaron Rai ($11,800)
Middle Range: Stephan Jaeger ($10,400)
Lower Range: Nico Echavarria ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Maverick McNealy – There are a lot of guys in the field with a long history of making the cut here, but there are more than a few that have successfully made it to the weekend over the past few years. McNealy is one of those guys, having made the cut in all four of his starts here. It's not a long track record, but it's enough to make me think he'll be playing the weekend.