This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Course: TPC Craig Ranch (7,414 yards, par 71)
Purse: $9,500,000
Winner: $1,710,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
With last week's team event in the books, we are back to solo golf until the Presidents Cup in the fall. This will be the second consecutive event that is not of the Signature variety, which gives a chance to some of those lower in the FedExCup Standings to pick up some points before another Signature Event next week.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson dates back to 1926 -- yes, 1926 -- which is so long ago that the records can't even tell us who won. The current iteration of this event started in 1944, when, wouldn't you know it, Byron Nelson took home the trophy. This event has gone by several different names over the years, but Nelson's name has been attached to it since 1968.
This event has been held at several different venues, but TPC Craig Ranch will be the host for the fourth consecutive year. Opening in 2004, this Tom Weiskopf-designed track is one of the newer courses in the PGA Tour rotation. At 7,414 yards, it's neither short nor long by PGA Tour standards, but Rowlett Creek has a presence on 14 of 18 holes, so accuracy will be key to avoid those pesky penalty strokes. Large, flat greens and wide-open fairways make this one of the easier courses on Tour.
As mentioned previously, the CJ Cup Byron Nelson is not a Signature Event, which means the field will be less than ideal, but there are at least a couple big names at the top, including Jordan Spieth and defending champion Jason Day. It's not much, but this really is a chance for the mid-tier guys to solidify a spot in the top-50 and for those outside of it to earn their way into the Signature Events.
Recent Champions
2023 - Jason Day (-23)
2022 - K.H. Lee (-26)
2021 - K.H. Lee (-25)
2020 - None
2019 - Sung Kang (-23)
2018 - Aaron Wise (-23)
2017 - Billy Horschel (-12)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (-15)
2015 - Steven Bowditch (-18)
2014 - Brendon Todd (-14)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- SG: Putting
- Birdie Average
- GIR Percentage
Champion's Profile
TPC Craig Ranch is as gettable of a PGA Tour course as you're going to find. Just check out the last three winning scores above. There will be plenty of chances for players to pile up birdies and eagles on this par-71 track. The keys to contending in a shootout are pretty simple: hit greens and sink putts. Both SG: Approach and SG: Putting have correlated with success in the three years at TPC Craig Ranch. I'll likely be focusing more on the putting aspect, as the size of the greens should lead to plenty of GIR, but the results on the greens will separate those who finish top-20 from the rest of the pack. As mentioned previously there is some water on the course, but those who are locked in with the irons should have no problem avoiding trouble.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Jordan Spieth ($12,100)
We've got different types of "chalk" in that some players, like Spieth, have been consistent on this course, while others have been hit-or-miss. Spieth is not at the top of his game right now, but he usually manages to play well in Texas, and his track record here is solid, with top-10s in his past two appearances, including a runner-up in 2022. It seems strange to say, but with Spieth you might actually get a jump on the competition, as he probably won't be too popular at this price.
Jason Day ($11,800)
Speaking of the hit-or-miss guys, enter defending champion Day, who prior to his win here had finished T51 and missed the cut. There was no indication entering last year's edition that Day would go 23-under, but that can happen at times when you've got that much talent. Day has played well this year, but he's missing the high-end results. That could change this week.
Alex Noren ($11,100)
Noren has played well this season, but like Day he's missing the high-end finishes. That's also the type of history he has in this event and on this course. He has played Craig Ranch three times and has not finished worse than T35. However, he has not done better than a T12. He will need to find an extra gear, but I think he has it in him.
The Middle Tier
Stephan Jaeger ($10,500)
The more Scottie Scheffler wins, the more astounding Jaeger's victory over him at the Texas Children's Houston Open becomes. Jaeger didn't fare well in his first start after that win, but he managed a top-20 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, and he's probably back where he needs to be mentally. His track record gives me some hope, as he carded two top-20s in his past three starts here.
Tom Kim ($10,300)
Kim has been very productive in his short time on the PGA Tour; he hasn't turned into a mega-star like many predicted. Only time will tell whether or not he becomes that guy, but in the meantime he's still one of the better players on the PGA Tour. Kim played pretty well in his past two PGA Tour starts, notching a top-30 at the Masters and a top-20 at the RBC Heritage, so perhaps he's trending in the right direction. It doesn't take much for Kim to really turn it on, so if he can roll it well on the greens he could have a lot of value at this price.
Patrick Rodgers ($10,100)
Rodgers has been all over the place this season, but guess who led the field in SG: Putting at the RBC Heritage? That's right, it was Rodgers, whose putting led to a top-5 in a Signature Event two weeks ago. If he's still feeling it on the greens, he could be a factor again. Rodgers is not the most reliable golfer out there, but these putting streaks can last a while before fading. Let's hope he's still feeling good on the putting surface.
The Long Shots
C.T. Pan ($9,000)
Pan enters on a streak of five consecutive cuts made. He's not getting a lot done on the weekend, but the point is to accrue points in all four rounds, right? It's nice if your long shots make a run, but it's often not necessary if you high-end guys are doing their jobs. Pan finished solo fourth here last year, so we could see some progress over the final two days provided he makes the cut.
Nate Lashley ($8,900)
Lashley certainly didn't play well in his most recent start at the Corales Puntacana Championship, but prior to that he was trending in the right direction, with two top-25s in three starts. When you're scouring long shot territory you aren't looking for players that will win, you're looking for players that should make the cut and could run into a top-10 if everything falls into place. Lashley certainly qualifies.
David Skinns ($7,600)
This one is for those that like to live on the edge. I've touched on my strategy for long shots, but what about FanDuel players that like the boom-or-bust technique? Well, that's where Skinns comes into play, as he has often found himself in that category this year. He has missed six cuts this season and made four, and in those instances he notched two top-20 results. The upside isn't super high, but not many golfers down here have a T4 on their resume.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is a bit of a tricky week because there aren't many high-end golfers in the field, and those who fall into that group aren't exactly rolling. I think Spieth's rate might cause some hesitation among DFS players, so he could actually be a contrarian play. If you're looking to play it safe, I'd go with Day ($11,800) or Noren ($11,100) from the top group. There's just not a lot to like below $9,000, so I think this might be a spot where you build more off the middle tier. I'd rather stack Jaeger ($10,500), Kim ($10,300) and Rodgers ($10,100) than use a stars-and-scrubs approach.
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