This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Byron Nelson – Dallas, TX
Trinity Forest Golf Club (7,380 yards, par 71)
$7.7M Purse
$1,386,000 and 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner
Tournament Preview
New host Trinity Forest Golf Club will shake things up as the AT&T Byron Nelson transitions away from TPC Four Seasons for the first time in a decade. With hometown favorite Jordan Spieth in the field and just six others from the top 50 in the world rankings, the storyline focuses in on the new venue, which serves up a treeless links feel despite its "Forest" title. Despite the new venue, this prestigious event continues to live on in the name of the late Byron Nelson, a five-time major champion and Hall-of-Famer who called Texas his home. For a second straight year, the event saw a sizable 0.2M increases to the purse, which now stands at $7.7M. With few trees to protect the swirling Texas winds, expect players to get creative with their shot-making with bump-and-runs and other "wind-cheating" shots that closely mimic those seen in an Open Championship.
Recent Past Champions
2017 – Billy Horschel
2016 – Sergio Garcia
2015 – Steven Bowditch
2014 – Brendon Todd
2013 – Sang Moon Bae
2012 – Jason Dufner
2011 – Keegan Bradley
2010 – Jason Day
2009 – Rory Sabbatini
2008 – Adam Scott
Key Stats to Winning this Week
• Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green
• Proximity to the Hole
• Strokes Gained: Putting
Champion's Profile
Many unknowns lurk as the course dramatically shifts its style to an ambiguous links layout, but the tendencies with this type of layout are clear. The course should be effortless off the tee, rewarding long hitters by giving them more reasonable approaches. After those easier tee shots it then boils down to how players manage their approach shots, as that will determine their ability (or inability) to make birdies. Many holes require the discipline to aim away from flags to allow the natural slopes to bring the ball close, so players with great Strokes Gained: Approach-the-Green and Proximity to the Hole stats should have an advantage - IF they don't get too aggressive. Beyond that primary factor, players who can routinely make putts on the new layout should have a big edge since most of the field has little course knowledge of the green complexes. The most likely to have that putting edge are guys who consistently putt well all year, or those in the top 50 in Strokes Gained: Putting. All said, target guys who can really dial in their approaches and convert from mid-range on the greens, as that will prove key this week.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Jordan Spieth, $12900 – An overwhelming favorite this week, Spieth returns to his hometown after a rough finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Outside of his somewhat concerning putting as of late, Spieth is playing some great golf, especially in his iron play. With a links layout that rewards great iron play and scrambling, Spieth can contend even without his "A" game.
Sergio Garcia, $12400 – A maven on links courses, Sergio's great iron ability should show through this week despite poor form his past three events (MC, MC, 70th).
Matt Kuchar, $12100 – A contender at last year's Open Championship, Kuchar has all the shots to contend at Trinity Forest. An incredible short game will go a long way on the elevated greens and slopey contours of this new venue, and Kuchar has that in spades.
Billy Horschel, $10200 – The defending champion this week, Horschel will look to continue his great recent play after a win in the team-oriented Zurich Classic and a few other top finishes lately.
Longer Shots Worth a Risk
Beau Hossler, $9500 – Hossler was born in Texas, went to college at UT, and has familiarity with Trinity Forest. The youngster hasn't posted a great finish since nearly winning in Houston, but a return to familiar surroundings armed with a great putter in hand should serve him well.
Graeme McDowell, $8800 – The veteran may not be long, but he's got the discipline and short game to hang around on a links layout like this one. McDowell has made six of his last seven cuts and should continue to improve that with a made cut this week.
Aaron Wise, $8700 – The 21-year-old showed great poise in nearly winning the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago and returns this week with momentum. As a long hitter he should have no problem getting in position to attack the flags and at least make enough birdies to play the weekend.
Kelly Kraft, $7700 – A bit of a flier here, but Kraft is only a month or two removed from a pair of top-10 finishes on TOUR. He's certainly struggled recently with four straight missed cuts, but his propensity to play well on links courses is what landed him on my radar this week. As a bargain option, Kraft can open up the door to load the rest of your lineup with studs, and it's a bonus if he plays the weekend.
Strategy Tips for this week (based on 60k standard salary cap)
With a weak field and many unknowns about the new course it's not a bad idea to pursue a studs & duds lineup this week of 3-4 rock solid players and 2-3 shots in the dark who fit the profile. If heavy winds happen to roll in the field tends to neutralize a bit, meaning even your duds have a chance to contend.
