This article is part of our Survivor series.
Upsets thinned the Survivor herd a bit last week. Our pick, Kansas City, easily sailed through, but the Cowboys (2nd pick), Jaguars (3rd) and Ravens (5th) lost. Still not sure how the Ravens lost.
Those who saved the Cowboys for last week (instead of playing them Week 2 vs. the Jets) saw that strategy backfire. As was noted then about "saving" teams:
We have no idea what the NFL will look like in a month or two. Indeed, the only things we can really say is that 1) teams don't stay the same week to week, let alone all year and 2) you're likely to be eliminated before you even get use that saved pick.
But it goes further than that. If you save a team for the week it faces the worst team in the league, guess what? The majority of your pool is probably using that team too. In that case, the smart play is no longer the team you saved, the smart play is a pot-odds pick — taking the next-best team with the hope that everyone goes down with the most popular pick.
Those three losses knocked out 123 entrants in my pool. Of the original 414 Survivors, 171 remain (41.3 percent).
On to Week 4.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage
Upsets thinned the Survivor herd a bit last week. Our pick, Kansas City, easily sailed through, but the Cowboys (2nd pick), Jaguars (3rd) and Ravens (5th) lost. Still not sure how the Ravens lost.
Those who saved the Cowboys for last week (instead of playing them Week 2 vs. the Jets) saw that strategy backfire. As was noted then about "saving" teams:
We have no idea what the NFL will look like in a month or two. Indeed, the only things we can really say is that 1) teams don't stay the same week to week, let alone all year and 2) you're likely to be eliminated before you even get use that saved pick.
But it goes further than that. If you save a team for the week it faces the worst team in the league, guess what? The majority of your pool is probably using that team too. In that case, the smart play is no longer the team you saved, the smart play is a pot-odds pick — taking the next-best team with the hope that everyone goes down with the most popular pick.
Those three losses knocked out 123 entrants in my pool. Of the original 414 Survivors, 171 remain (41.3 percent).
On to Week 4.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN | VEGAS ML | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 39.0% | 750 | 88.2% | 4.59 |
| Chiefs | JETS | 20.5% | 400 | 80.0% | 4.10 |
| EAGLES | Commanders | 19.6% | 350 | 77.8% | 4.36 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 6.0% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.85 |
| COWBOYS | Patriots | 5.9% | 270 | 73.0% | 1.59 |
| Vikings | PANTHERS | 2.9% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.06 |
| Broncos | BEARS | 1.4% | 152.5 | 60.4% | 0.55 |
| Steelers | TEXANS | 1.2% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.48 |
| Jaguars (London) | Falcons | 1.0% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.38 |
| Lions | PACKERS | 0.4% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.19 |
| Bengals | TITANS | 0.4% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.18 |
| SAINTS | Buccaneers | 0.3% | 160 | 61.5% | 0.12 |
| Seahawks | GIANTS | 0.3% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.14 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 0.1% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.04 |
| Rams | COLTS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 0.1% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.04 |
| Dolphins | BILLS | 0.1% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The 39 percent popularity for the 49ers might, at first glance, give hope of a pot-odds play, but with each of the next two most popular teams at about 20 percent, it's not to be. At the odds listed above, we'd need one team at 47-50 percent owned and the next at 10-12 percent for a pot-odds play.
In any event, those who survived last week likely did so on the back of the Chiefs. That leaves really only two teams worth considering this week: 49ers and Eagles. Either of those might have been used in Week 2 (Cowboys and Bills were our top two choices) and the 49ers might have been used last week. Hopefully, you have one of the three left this week.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are at home against the Cardinals, whom Vegas is apparently not buying, at all, even after their upset of the Cowboys last week at home. The 49ers are two-touchdown favorites and -900 on the moneyline. But the Cardinals led at halftime in each game this season and actually could be undefeated with a little better fourth-quarter defense in their first two games — a far, far cry from preseason expectations. Nevertheless, even if Arizona keeps it closer than Vegas expects, the 49ers should eventually pull away from visiting Cardinals.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles might be the best team in the league. Washington perhaps is better than expected, but it needed fourth-quarter comebacks to beat the Cardinals and Broncos before getting throttled by the Bills last week at home. Washington has given up a league-high 19 sacks this season, while the Eagles' defense has a top-10 QB pressure rate. Washington can probably hang for a bit, but the Eagles should prevail at home.
Kansas City Chiefs
If the Chiefs are still available — and the 49ers and Eagles are not — this is a good spot. Unlike the those teams, the Chiefs are on the road, and unlike the Chiefs' opponent last Sunday — the Bears (6.0 yards allowed per play, 30th) — the Jets actually tackle (4.8, 9th). That should make things tougher for the K.C. offense, which didn't look great the first two weeks. Kansas City's defense, which has allowed 32 points in three games, could be the deciding factor against a Jets offense that is among the league leaders in 3-and-outs.
Dallas Cowboys
We used the Cowboys in Week 2, so they're off the board. But for those who faded Dallas, this could work. The Cowboys turned in clunker last week, perhaps simply overlooking a seemingly inferior opponent. Center Tyler Biadasz, right guard Zack Martin and left tackle Tyron Smith did not play, but offensive line wasn't the problem — Dallas rushed for 185 yards and allowed only two sacks. It will be surprising if the defense lays another egg, even without standout corner Trevon Diggs, against a New England offense that could muster just 13 points against the Jets last week (two more N.E. points came on a safety), especially with Ezekiel Elliott returning to Dallas.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have won two in a row and the offense seems to be coming along. The Texans are probably due for a letdown after an improbable 20-point win at Jacksonville last week. Pittsburgh's pass rush should get to C.J. Stroud all day. That said, there's no reason to risk a Survivor pick with this.
Notable Omission:
Los Angeles Chargers
The only reason this would be attractive is if Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) can't play for Las Vegas. In that case, Brian Hoyer would quarterback the Raiders. The Chargers (probably) couldn't mess that up. The Chargers have tremendous offensive potential (though Mike Williams is now out for the season), but they also have a penchant for Chargering and that's not something to trust with a Survivor pick in a division game if Garoppolo is healthy.
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