Streaming Defenses: Week 1 Fantasy Options for Team Defenses

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Updated on September 5, 2023 1:43AM EST

Welcome back to Streaming Defenses, where we firmly believe in the power of a week-to-week approach at the D/ST position. It's the only spot in a fantasy lineup where matchup matters more than role/talent, though one or two defenses per year may subvert the axiom of offensive quality having more weight on outcomes than defensive quality.

If we could identify those one or two defenses before the season with 100 percent accuracy, it'd probably be worth using a mid-to-late-round pick. We don't have that power, of course, and the track record for elite defensive performance(s) being repeated year-over-year is terrible. That's been true even with loaded-on-paper defenses like the ones we currently see in San Francisco and Dallas; partially because they often disappoint and partially because fantasy scoring doesn't always reward stellar showings.

In the real world, where team defensive performance is much harder to predict than offensive performance, it often makes sense to approach D/ST as a week-to-week position that we'll use to target bad offenses rather than search for quality defenses. Maybe you stumble into this year's surprise top defense along the way and end up keeping them all season, but more likely you'll keep rotating teams in and out of the lineup and be similarly satisfied with the results.

Below you'll find everything you need to prepare not only for Week 1 but the early part of the season (for those so inclined to peek ahead). After I discuss the top five streaming plays for this weekend, you'll find top-20 rankings for Week 1, Week 2 and ROS (Rest of Season).

Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 1

1. Atlanta Falcons (vs. CAR)

6% Yahoo, 5% ESPN

Team implied total: 21.5

Opponent implied total: 18.0

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 15th (vs. GB), Week 3: 28th (at DET)

The Commanders would be in this spot if they didn't narrowly miss the ownership requirement. And if you're looking for a multi-week play, the Saints have a highly favorable schedule early in the season, though they also fail to qualify for this article.

The top qualifying team — rostered at less than 60 percent on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN — is one that has generally come to be associated with terrible defense. The Falcons probably won't shed that reputation in one year, but they at least took major steps this offseason toward respectability with the signings of DE Calais Campbell, DT David Onyemata, ILB Kaden Elliss, S Jessie Bates and OLB Bud Dupree. That's four solid starters and a rotational edge rusher, all added in the same offseason.

Carolina's offense underwent a similar degree of turnover but settled for a lower caliber of veteran (33-year-old Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Hayden Hurst) and has the added challenge of acclimating a rookie quarterback. Initial expectations for QB Bryce Young and his sketchy supporting cast apparently are modest, as only the Cardinals and Texans have lesser implied totals for Week 1.

2. Minnesota Vikings (vs. TB)

5% Yahoo, 4% ESPN

Team implied total: 25.75

Opponent implied total: 19.75

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 31st (at PHI), Week 3: 26th (vs. LAC)

I'm more optimistic than most when it comes to the Tampa offense and more pessimistic than most when it comes to the Minnesota defense. Still, a home game against Baker Mayfield is an obvious streaming target, even if the 28-year-old QB now has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal. Mayfield didn't do much with a dynamic duo back in Cleveland, and that was with a better offensive line than he'll have this year. The O-line is one area the Bucs have really dropped off since a year or two ago, in addition to QB, with OT Tristan Wirfs being the only sure-thing quality starter at this point (though Wirfs remains dominant, to be fair).

Minnesota should be able to generate pressure, if nothing else, with edge rushers Daniell Hunter, Marcus Davenport and D.J. Wonnum being the obvious strength of an otherwise undermanned defense. Expect Mayfield to yield multiple sacks and one or two turnovers even if he's able to move the ball and put some points on the board.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (at IND)

27% Yahoo, % ESPN

Team implied total: 25.0

Opponent implied total: 20.0

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 30th (vs. KC), Week 3: 8th (vs. HOU)

The Jags essentially are bringing back the same defensive group that was ordinary-to-subpar last season, banking on internal improvement as well as Trevor Lawrence's ability to win shootouts. Even if you believe in the second part more than the first, Jacksonville should have the advantage this weekend, facing a rookie QB in his NFL debut after just one season of starting in college. You'd feel better about Anthony Richardson's chances for early success if he had a dependable offensive line or star running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle), but unfortunately he has neither, nor does he have an impressive group of pass catchers.

4. Seattle Seahawks (vs. LAR)

14% Yahoo, 8% ESPN

Team implied total: 26.0

Opponent implied total: 20.5

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 24th (at DET), Week 3: 5th (vs. CAR)

I'm surprised how little hype there is around the Seattle defense, considering LB Bobby Wagner is back in town (coming off a huge year in LA) and they added CB Devon Witherspoon with the fifth overall pick. Witherspoon might miss this one with a hamstring injury, but the same is true of Rams WR Cooper Kupp, who spent a long weekend in Minnesota visiting a specialist. The Rams are inordinately dependent on their No. 1 receiver, in part because he's so good and in part because they have next to nothing behind him. I might bump Seattle up another spot or two if/when Kupp is ruled out.

5. Denver Broncos (vs. LV)

77% Yahoo, 8% ESPN

Team implied total: 24.0

Opponent implied total: 20.0

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 8th (vs. WAS), Week 3: 23rd (at MIA)

The huge difference between Yahoo and ESPN ownership is partially a product of autodrafting but also a product of how default ranks influence peoples' decisions. If you've still got drafts coming up on any of the big sites, be sure to check out my recent article on exploiting the default ranks on Yahoo, ESPN and NFL.com.

As for the Broncos... they're unlikely to match last year's defensive performance, especially after some offseason losses, but a home matchup with Vegas should at least allow them to look good to start the year. Denver has CB Patrick Surtain to handle WR Davante Adams and the ILB duo of Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton to deal with RB Josh Jacobs, all while getting a hand from the best home-field advantage in the league. Also note that the Broncos have the best Week 2 matchup on this list, for those interested in multi-week streamers rather than just covering opening weekend.