NFL Game Previews: Broncos-Bills Matchup

MONDAY NIGHT

Denver (+7.5) at Buffalo, o/u 47 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Broncos got a week off to bask in the glow of finally beating Kansas City, but now it's back to work, and the offense still needs some. Russell Wilson has throws for under 200 yards in four straight games with a 5.9 YPA over that stretch, but he's also managed a decent 7:2 TD:INT so he hasn't been a total write-off. Denver was also running a gauntlet of tough secondaries in October – the Jets, the Packers, and K.C. twice – so it's possible the passing attack isn't in as bad a shape as it appears. Javonte Williams at least looks like he might be getting back to his pre-injury form, popping for 194 scrimmage yards in the last two games, both wins. It's Vance Joseph's defense that deserves most of the credit for the brief winning streak though, holding three straight opponents under 20 points – and again, that includes two games against Patrick Mahomes. Even so, the stink of that Miami game still clings to the team's season-long stats, and while Mahomes might have only produced 28 points in two cracks at the Broncos, this is still a squad that let Zach Wilson and the Jets hang 31 on them. Color me skeptical that Denver's about to surge to the playoffs in the second half.

At least they're on a winning streak. The Bills are 2-3 over their last five, alternating wins and losses, and at 5-4 their playoff spot looks far from secure at the moment – in fact, had the postseason started this weekend, they would have been on the outside looking in. It's not like they're coming up just short against elite opponents, as two of the losses came against the Jets (even though Aaron Rodgers got hurt four plays into the season opener) and the Pats in Week 7, and don't forget the Bills almost did the unthinkable against the Giants too. After blowing out three straight opponents earlier in the year, Buffalo's now played five straight games decided by a single score, and turns out, the team isn't so good at that style of football. It's tough to find any one culprit. The injury-riddled defense has sagged, but not completely collapsed – the Bills haven't allowed anyone to score 30 points against them yet in 2023, and only one opponent (the Jaguars) has reached 400 total yards against them. Josh Allen's on pace for a career high in turnovers with nine INTs and two lost fumbles through nine games, but he's also on track for a career-high total TDs (18 passing, six rushing so far) and his second season with over 4,500 passing yards. That might mean there's more than one thing to be fixed before Sean McDermott's crew can be viewed as a legit Super Bowl threat again, but it also means there's nothing about Buffalo that's unfixable. Getting back to the blowouts here would be a good start.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: TE Greg Dulcich (IR, hamstring)
BUF injuries: TE Dawson Knox (IR, wrist), LB Terrell Bernard (questionable, concussion)

DEN DFS targets: Courtland Sutton $5,300 DK / $6,600 FD (BUF 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
BUF DFS targets: Allen $8,300 DK / $9,000 FD (DEN 32nd in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed, 28th in passing TDs allowed), James Cook $6,300 DK / $6,300 FD (DEN 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed), Gabe Davis $5,700 DK / $6,500 FD (DEN 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Khalil Shakir $3,300 DK / $5,200 FD (DEN 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

DEN DFS fades: none
BUF DFS fades: none

Key stat: BUF is seventh in net yards per play at 0.33; DEN is 30th at -1.01 

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-30s, less than 10 mph wind, 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams churns out 80 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 210 yards and a TD to Jerry Jeudy. Cook racks up 90 combined yards and a score. Allen throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, one each to Stefon Diggs (who tops 100 yards), Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, while also running in a score of his own. Bills 35-17

SUNDAY A.M.

Indianapolis vs. New England (+1.5) at Frankfurt, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 9:30 a.m. EST

The Colts snapped a three-game losing streak last week, and they've done something no other team in the NFL has managed through the first nine weeks of the season — score at least 20 points in every game. Indy's done that despite being without Jonathan Taylor for the first four games, and having rookie starting QB Anthony Richardson only play about three whole games before being lost for the year with a shoulder injury. Tell me again that Shane Steichen doesn't belong in the Coach of the Year conversation. OK, fine, they're only 4-5 and even winning a wild-card spot could be tough, but still, the Colts have been playing way over their heads on that side of the ball. As for the defense, well ... the fact that they're seventh in scoring at 25.8 points a game and still have a losing record just about sums it up. It would help if Gardner Minshew could tighten things up, and he has committed only one turnover over the last two games, so if he can reign in those gunslinger impulses just a little, Indy's closing schedule after next week's bye (the Bengals in Week 14 and the Steelers in Week 15 are its only remaining games against teams that currently have winning records) makes them a plausible playoff contender.

The Patriots come into the year's final international game having dropped five of their last six, and really, that sixth game just saw Buffalo do a better job of losing than New England did. It's hard to find something that's gone right for Bill Belichick's crew in 2023. Demario Douglas is having a decent enough rookie season for a sixth-round pick, but he has yet to score a TD or top 55 receiving yards. Beyond that? Mac Jones has a 5:7 TD:INT over that six-game skid, while Rhamondre Stevenson waited until last week to put together his first game with more than 100 scrimmage yards. They've almost been the inverse of the Colts, and the Pats have scored more than 20 points only once in nine games while the defense has allowed 28.2 points a game over those last six. Next week's bye can't come soon enough.

The Skinny

IND injuries: WR Josh Downs (questionable, knee), LB Zaire Franklin (questionable, knee)
NE injuries: WR DeVante Parker (questionable, concussion), WR Douglas (questionable, ankle), EDGE Matt Judon (IR, biceps), LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (questionable, hamstring)

IND DFS targets: none
NE DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: Michael Pittman $6,700 DK / $7,100 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1)
NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: NE is t-26th in third-down conversions at 33.1 percent; IND is 13th in third-down defense at 37.9 percent

The Scoop: Taylor gains 100 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Minshew throws for 270 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Alec Pierce and Isaiah McKenzie, but he also tosses a pick-six to Jabrill Peppers to keep things interesting. Stevenson ekes out 50 yards, while Jones throws for less than 200 yards but does find Hunter Henry for a TD. Colts 31-14

EARLY SUNDAY

Cleveland (+6) at Baltimore, o/u 37.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The AFC North isn't just its usual bastion of old-school, smash-mouth football; it's also the best division in the NFL through the first half of the season. Every team is above .500, and every team has reason to think they have a legitimate shot (yes, even Pittsburgh) at winning the division crown, or settling for a wild-card spot if they don't. At 5-3, the Browns are arguably the best of the second-place teams behind the Ravens, and their plus-42 point differential is fifth in the AFC. Cleveland's defense has been one of the stingiest in the league, giving up only 17.4 points a game (third behind Kansas City and, you guessed it, Baltimore), and Myles Garrett is just a half-sack out of the league lead with a game in hand on the guy ahead of him, Danielle Hunter. How far this team goes will mostly depend on whether Deshaun Watson starts earning his salary, though. He played his first full game since Week 3 last week, and his sore shoulder looked OK as he tossed two TDs against zero INTs with a 7.3 YPA. The Ravens are a much tougher flock than the Cardinals though, and other than Amari Cooper, he doesn't seem to have any reliable targets. Cleveland's used to relying on its running game to pick up the slack, but the loss of Nick Chubb still looms large over the backfield. The defense also seems just as capable of shaky performances as great ones – it's held three opponents to three points or less, but it's hard to forget the 38 the Browns coughed up to Gardner Minshew and the Colts, or the team's inability to close the deal against the Seahawks. When these two teams met in Week 4, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson got the surprise start under center for Cleveland and looked like a deer in headlights, but while Watson should provide more than 121 passing yards and a 0:3 TD:INT, Lamar Jackson also erupted for four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing). The latter issue might be a lot harder to fix.

Baltimore's 7-2 record has them tied with Kansas City for the best record in the AFC, but tiebreakers would have the leaders of the North in the No. 2 seed if the playoffs started this weekend. That doesn't mean a whole lot in Week 10, but you know John Harbaugh wants that bye. The team's won four straight, and in dominating fashion, scoring an average of 32.5 points a game while allowing just 12.3. That's the kind of run that got the Niners labeled the league's best team earlier in the year, and sure enough pundits are now anointing the Ravens as the future champs in mid-November. If they still hold it when they get to their Week 13 bye, they will have earned it – Baltimore gets a resurgent Cincy squad next week before a road clash with the erratic but dangerous Chargers in Week 12. Jackson's taken a back seat to the running game over the last couple weeks, throwing for less than 200 yards in each while Gus Edwards punched in five rushing TDs and rookie Keaton Mitchell erupted for 138 yards and a score last week against Seattle. If there's a blemish on Lamar's performance so far in 2023, it's the career-worst six fumbles he's already lost, but he's still on pace for a career best in completion rate (71.5 percent) and passing yards (what would be 3,690 over 17 games.)

The Skinny

CLE injuries: RB Pierre Strong (questionable, hamstring), TE David Njoku (questionable, knee)
BAL injuries: WR Odell Beckham (questionable, knee)

CLE DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Ravens DST $4,000 DK / $4,600 FD (first in sacks, CLE t-29th in giveaways)

CLE DFS fades: Watson $5,400 DK / $7,100 FD (BAL second in passing DVOA, second in net passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in passing TDs allowed), Jerome Ford $5,300 DK / $6,400 FD and Kareem Hunt $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD (BAL third in rushing DVOA), Elijah Moore $3,600 DK / $5,400 FD (BAL second in DVOA vs. WR2)
BAL DFS fades: Jackson $8,000 DK / $8,300 FD (CLE first in passing DVOA, first in net passing yards per game allowed), Zay Flowers $5,700 DK / $6,000 FD (CLE first in DVOA vs. WR1), Mark Andrews $6,900 DK / $7,300 FD (CLE second in DVOA vs. TE)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 BAL, average score 24-19 BAL, average margin of victory 11 points. BAL has won three straight meetings and six of the last seven at M&T Bank Stadium, with CLE's only win during that stretch coming in Week 4 of 2019, when Chubb ran for 165 yards and three TDs and Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards in a 40-25 victory
Key stat: CLE is 31st in third-down conversions at 31.7 percent; BAL is eighth in third-down defense at 34.8 percent

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ford leads the CLE backfield with 60 yards. Watson throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice but does hit Cooper for a TD. Edwards churns out 70 yards and a touchdown, while Justice Hill also runs for 50 yards and a score. Jackson throws for 210 yards and a TD to Nelson Agholor. Ravens 27-13

Houston (+7) at Cincinnati, o/u 48 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

C.J. Stroud is eight games into his NFL career. He just broke the single-game rookie record for passing yards. He's on pace to break Andrew Luck's rookie record for passing yards in a season, and might not even need a 17th game to do it. He's got a real shot at topping Justin Herbert's rookie record for TDs of 31. And none of those are his most impressive number so far – the kid's only thrown one interception on 279 attempts. The record for the lowest INT% in a season is Aaron Rodgers' 0.3 percent in 2018 – not the rookie record, the record. Stroud's at 0.4 percent. (The rookie record, incidentally, is 0.9 percent from Dak Prescott's 2016 campaign.) Whatever else happens with the Texans this season, and it could be a lot since they're 4-4 and very much within striking distance of the playoffs, the fact that they seemed to completely nail their picks for new franchise QB and new head coach (under DeMeco Ryans, the run defense has gone from one of the worst in the league to pretty good overnight, and the pass defense has held its own even without Derek Stingley for most of the year) means this has been a very successful 2023.

Speaking of successful campaigns, the Bengals have won four straight and are back to doing Bengal things. Joe Burrow has a 10:2 TD:INT during the winning streak with a 75.8 percent completion rate, while the defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in any of those wins while generating multiple takeaways each time, and the last two victories have come against what was supposed to be tough competition in the Niners and Bills. The closest thing to a layup on their remaining schedule is a home game against the Vikings in Week 15, but when Cincy is firing on all cylinders, it tends not to matter who they're facing. The big issue in this one might be who Burrow is throwing to. Both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are banged up, and last week the QB had to turn to his tight ends to keep things moving, as Irv Smith and Drew Sample each caught their first TDs of the year and even Tanner Hudson got involved. If Lou Anarumo's defense can force Stroud into mistakes, it may not matter, but if this game turns into a duel between the two young gunslingers, Burrow may not have the ammo to keep up.

The Skinny

HOU injuries: RB Dameon Pierce (questionable, ankle), WR Nico Collins (questionable, calf), WR Robert Woods (questionable, foot), K Ka'imi Fairbairn (doubtful, quadriceps), EDGE Jonathan Greenard (questionable, shoulder), LB Blake Cashman (questionable, knee)
CIN injuries: WR Chase (questionable, back), WR Higgins (questionable, hamstring)

HOU DFS targets: Dalton Schultz $4,900 DK / $6,100 FD (CIN 30th in DVOA vs. TE)
CIN DFS targets: none

HOU DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU is t-24th in red-zone conversions at 48.1 percent (13-for-27); CIN is t-11th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent (15-for-30)

Weather notes: clear, temperature in the mid-50s, 9-10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devin Singletary leads the HOU backfield with 40 yards. Stroud throws for 320 yards and three scores, two to Schultz and one to Noah Brown, while Tank Dell tops 100 yards. Joe Mixon pieces together 70 scrimmage yards and a TD. Burrow throws for 330 yards and three touchdowns of his own, finding Trenton Irwin, Hudson and Smith, but a Jalen Pitre pick-six keeps things close. Bengals 34-31

San Francisco at Jacksonville (+3), o/u 46 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

If ever a team was in desperate need of their bye, it was the 49ers last week. After winning their first five games of the year and looking like they might make the '72 Dolphins nervous, they proceeded to drop three straight as the banged-up offense stagnated and, for the first time in his career, Brock Purdy looked like a seventh-round pick. Purdy's five INTs and six total turnovers during the losing streak were more than he'd had in his entire career to that point, but a week off to reset and get some key players back from injuries should help him settle down. Worse comes to worst, he could probably just get the ball to Christian McCaffrey 40 times and things would work out OK. CMac has gotten into the end zone in 17 straight games including last year's playoffs, setting a modern NFL record (Lenny Moore also scored in 17 straight games for Johnny Unitas' Baltimore Colts in 1963-64), and he's closing in on LaDainian Tomlinson's regular-season record of 18 straight games, sitting four games short. Until Joe Burrow lit it up in Week 8, San Francisco's defense had been as good as expected, so as long as someone other than McCaffrey starts providing points again, a second-half surge seems almost certain.

The Jaguars were technically the hottest team in the league prior to their Week 9 bye, going 5-0 in October, but it's still tough to rate this team as one of the AFC's elite. It's not that they had an easy schedule last month – three of those wins came on the road in Buffalo, New Orleans and Pittsburgh, all of whom have winning records – but none of them seemed like true statements games. Maybe I'm just setting the bar too high. They found different ways to win, with the one through line being a dominant run from Travis Etienne that saw him compile 565 scrimmage yards and seven TDs. Trevor Lawrence, on the other hand, has been more bus driver than emerging star, tossing just nine touchdowns over eight games in the first half, and despite the draft investments in the pass rush, Travon Walker, Josh Allen and company are 30th in sacks (although a 13th-place showing in pressure rate and 10th in knockdowns suggests the raw sack numbers could improve soon.) An AFC South title is within their grasp, but their closing schedule is tough and only a home game against the Panthers in Week 17 seems like a true gimme. Someone other than Etienne is going to need to step up if the Jags want to be taken seriously.

The Skinny

SF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
JAC injuries: WR Zay Jones (questionable, knee)

SF DFS targets: none
JAC DFS targets: none

SF DFS fades: McCaffrey $9,200 DK / $10,500 FD (JAC fourth in rushing DVOA, third in rushing yards per game allowed)
JAC DFS fades: Evan Engram $4,500 DK / $5,600 FD (SF third in DVOA vs. TE) 

Key stat: SF is fourth in third-down conversions at 46.4 percent; JAC is fifth in third-down defense at 34.2 percent

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 70s, 15-20 mph wind, 20-35 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: McCaffrey gallops for 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Purdy throws for 240 yards and two scores, hitting Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Etienne responds with 80 yards and a TD. Lawrence throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Calvin Ridley. 49ers 24-20

New Orleans at Minnesota (+2.5), o/u 41 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Saints have stumbled to the top of the NFC South with two straight wins, out-lasting the Colts before barely getting by the Bears despite a 0:5 turnover advantage. It's not exactly a stellar resume, but there have been encouraging signs. Derek Carr has thrown for multiple TDs or 300 yards, or both, in five straight games, posting a 66.1 percent completion rate, 7.1 YPA and 8:2 TD:INT over that stretch. No one of his receiving options has really stood out though, as the targets have been spread out between Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Alvin Kamara, and even a healthy Juwan Johnson got in on the act last week. Taysom Hill's also been on a nice heater, accounting for five touchdowns (one passing, three rushing, one receiving) over the last three weeks. Despite the offense coming around, a slump by the defense has kept them team from really taking off, and since the beginning of October the only teams New Orleans has kept below 20 points are New England and Chicago. The Saints should take home the division crown, and the pieces are here for the team to even make a bit of playoff noise, but as yet the coaching staff can't make them fit together consistently.

Joshua Dobbs pulled a Baker Mayfield 2022 last week, stepping into the lineup with no practice time and leading his new team to an improbable win, and the Vikings are somehow still above .500 and riding a four-game win streak. Dobbs is really having an outstanding season, all things considered, but his 5.8 YPA over nine games between Minnesota and Arizona isn't going to have anyone giving him a Geno Smith-sized contract in the offseason. With Kirk Cousins lost for the year, the Vikes should be about to spiral out of playoff contention, but they might also end up being the gang with no pressure or expectations on them in the second half who make life miserable for teams that really can't afford a loss. Dobbs will have some dangerous players to get the ball to, including Justin Jefferson potentially as soon as this week, and the defense keeps punching above its weight class thanks to DC Brian Flores.

The Skinny

NO injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
MIN injuries: RB Cam Akers (IR, Achilles), WR Jefferson (IR-R, hamstring), WR K.J. Osborn (questionable, concussion), TE T.J. Hockenson (questionable, ribs)

NO DFS targets: Saints DST $3,900 DK / $4,200 FD (t-1st in takeaways, MIN t-29th in giveaways)
MIN DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: Jordan Addison $5,900 DK / $6,900 FD (NO fourth in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: MIN is t-10th in third-down conversions at 41.7 percent; NO is fourth in third-down defense at 34.1 percent

The Scoop: Kamara manages 70 scrimmage yards, while Hill vultures a red-zone TD run. Carr throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, one each to Johnson and Michael Thomas. Alexander Mattison scrapes together 50 combined yards. Dobbs throws for 210 yards and runs for 40 more, hitting Brandon Powell and Trishton Jackson for scores, but he also gets picked off twice. Saints 21-17

Green Bay (+3.5) at Pittsburgh, o/u 39 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

After a brutal four-game losing streak, Green Bay picked up a win last week, but it was more a case of the Rams losing (they got desperate enough to sign Carson Wentz after the game... 'nuff said) than the Packers suddenly turning things around. Jordan Love's making it really hard for cheeseheads to feel his name, but the first-year starter has at least completed better than two-thirds of his passes in two of the last three games, and Aaron Jones looked frisky last week for the first time since the season opener. The offensive line is still held together by duct tape though, and a front office that thought the roster was good enough to make a second-half run for a wild-card spot likely wouldn't have sent Rasul Douglas to Buffalo. Green Bay also has a rough November schedule – after this week, they face the Chargers, Detroit and the defending champs from Kansas City in consecutive weeks – which likely played into that calculation.

The Steelers are 5-0 in games decided by a single score this season, and 0-3 in games decided by 10 points or more, because Mike Tomlin is a wizard. It's the only logical explanation. This is not a good team, but if they can keep it close, they somehow always come out on top. Two of their wins have come against Cleveland and Baltimore even, so they're not just winning more often than they probably should, they're winning the right games. Pittsburgh currently has the longest odds of winning the AFC North, but honestly, +1000 or so seems too high given both their remaining non-division schedule (including back-to-back home games in early December against Arizona and New England) and consistent ability to steal wins they shouldn't. An offense led by Kenny Pickett doesn't scare anyone, but T.J. Watt's a half-sack behind the league lead and Cameron Heyward just returned to the lineup, so the defense is more than capable of carrying the load while OC Matt Canada tries to find just enough yards and points to keep him employed.

The Skinny

GB injuries: RB Jones (questionable, hamstring), LB Quay Walker (questionable, groin)
PIT injuries: TE Pat Freiermuth (IR, hamstring), EDGE Heyward (questionable, groin), LB Elandon Roberts (questionable, knee), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (questionable, hamstring)

GB DFS targets: none
PIT DFS targets: none

GB DFS fades: Luke Musgrave $3,700 DK / $5,100 FD (PIT first in DVOA vs. TE), Packers DST $3,400 DK / $4,000 FD (t-28th in takeaways, PIT t-5th in giveaways)
PIT DFS fades: Allen Robinson $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: PIT has a plus-8 turnover differential. GB has a minus-2

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones grinds out 70 combined yards. Love throws for 220 yards and two scores, finding Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but he also loses a fumble that Larry Ogunjobi falls on for a touchdown. Najee Harris ekes out 40 yards. Pickett throws for 210 yards and a TD to George Pickens before leading a game-winning FG drive in overtime. Steelers 23-20

Tennessee (+1) at Tampa Bay, o/u 38 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Last week's loss to the Steelers left the Titans in the AFC South basement at 3-5 and closer to a top-five pick in 2024 than a playoff spot, but the season hasn't gotten away from them yet. Will Levis predictably couldn't repeat his spectacular debut against a tougher defense, but the rookie held his own and showed enough to get Mike Vrabel to confirm the inevitable and name him the starter, and not just a temp fill-in for Ryan Tannehill. Derrick Henry's also been rolling, topping 100 scrimmage yards in three straight games and four of five, and while he's not the human steamroller he was a few years ago, he's still effective and productive. Tennessee's defense is best described as adequate – six of eight opponents have scored between 20 and 27 points against the Titans – so if the team is going to make any kind of late push, it'll probably be up to Levis to make it happen.

Fortunately, this week he gets to sling it against a secondary that just had a historically bad performance against another rookie QB. The Buccaneers have lost four straight games, but last week may have been rock bottom as Tampa scored a season-high 37 points, only for the defense to give up 39 as C.J. Stroud went out and set some records (you may have heard about it.) I don't want to take anything away from Houston's young quarterback, but when guys like Noah Brown are hauling in more than 150 yards against you and you let some 5-8 pipsqueak make a leaping grab at the back of the end zone against you for the winning score (hey, I love Tank Dell and have shares, but a prototypical red-zone threat he ain't), you've got issues that it might take a couple offseasons to solve. The NFC South is still very winnable, and the fact that OC Dave Canales has finally found a way to make Rachaad White useful is nice, but this is not a team built to win barn burners. The Bucs have given up more than 400 yards of offense four times in eight games, and the Lions would have made it five if they'd had any healthy RBs that week. It was just a matter of time before someone erupted for a bunch of points too, and it probably won't be the last time.

The Skinny

TEN injuries: WR Treylon Burks (questionable, concussion), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (questionable, ankle)
TB injuries: WR Trey Palmer (questionable, neck)

TEN DFS targets: Levis $5,300 DK / $6,800 FD (TB 31st in net passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $3,400 DK / $5,400 FD (TB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
TB DFS targets: Mike Evans $7,200 DK / $7,600 FD (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

TEN DFS fades: Titans DST $3,300 DK / $3,800 FD (32nd in takeaways, TB fourth in giveaways, t-2nd in sacks allowed)
TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: TEN is 31st in red-zone conversions at 34.6 percent (9-for-26); TB is second in red-zone defense at 34.6 percent (9-for-26)

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the mid-80s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Henry gains 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Levis throws for 200 yards and a TD to DeAndre Hopkins. White manages 60 scrimmage yards. Mayfield throws for 280 yards and two scores, hitting Evans (who tops 100 yards) and Chris Godwin, and a Deven Thompkins kickoff return to the house proves to be the difference. Buccaneers 24-20

LATE SUNDAY

Atlanta at Arizona (+1.5), o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

This is just coaching malpractice, right? Arthur Smith has become Coach Dale over-thinking the final shot, only he's doing it on every possession and there's nobody there to tell him to just give the damn ball to Jimmy... err, Bijan. At 4-5, the Falcons are still only a game back of the Saints for the NFC South lead, but they've lost three of their last four, including last week's embarrassing defeat at the hands of a quarterback who didn't even know the names of the guys he was throwing the ball to, much less the playbook. Taylor Heinicke injected a little life into the offense, but the season-high 28 points they scored against the Vikings was a little misleading as it included four field goals and a safety. Even with Desmond Ridder on the bench though, Kyle Pitts still saw fewer targets than Jonnu Smith or KhaDarel Hodge, and Bijan Robinson saw the same number of touches as Tyler Allgeier. I've said this before, but if your coach isn't going to bother to feature the skill players who spent first-round picks on, then you probably should have used those picks on defense or the offensive line. Or, y'know, you could get rid of the coach and find someone who will feature them, which seems increasingly likely.

While the Bears have two shots at it, it's still the Cardinals who were in position to pick first overall in 2024 coming into the week with a 1-8 record. This still isn't the absolute worst team in the league – I think that title comfortably belongs to the Giants right now, regardless of records – but Arizona's managed to do everything just wrong enough so far, aside from that one weird game against the Cowboys. Things get interesting in the desert from here on out with the return of Kyler Murray, though. The QB should make his return from ACL surgery in this one, and if last week's performance by the Atlanta defense against Joshua Dobbs is any indication, he could hit the ground running in a big way. The thing is, do the Cards actually want Murray to be that good? The team has to walk a tightrope of giving the fifth-year quarterback a chance to dissuade them from replacing him in next year's draft, while also not screwing up their chances of getting the best possible replacement for Murray should they choose to go that route. Chicago faces a similar dilemma, only Justin Fields hasn't ever been all that good in the NFL. Murray looked like the real deal at times in 2020-21 even as Kliff Kingsbury's scheme was getting exposed by defensive coordinators. If he was in a better system, with more talent around him, he still seems to me like a guy who can successfully lead an offense to some success. Whether that offense is Arizona's in 2024 will be one of the big questions of the offseason.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: WR Mack Hollins (out, ankle)
ARI injuries: RB James Conner (IR-R, knee), RB Emari Demercado (out, toe), WR Michael Wilson (questionable, shoulder), TE Zach Ertz (IR, quadriceps)

ATL DFS targets: Heinicke $5,100 DK / $7,000 FD (ARI 31st in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed, t-26th in passing TDs allowed), Drake London $5,500 DK / $6,500 FD (ARI 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
ARI DFS targets: none

ATL DFS fades: none
ARI DFS fades: none

Key stat: ARI is t-22nd in third-down conversions at 36.5 percent; ATL is ninth in third-down defen se at 35.0 percent

The Scoop: Robinson leads the ATL backfield with 80 scrimmage yards and a score. Heinicke throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns, both to London. Keaontay Ingram leads the ARI backfield with 50 yards. Murray throws for under 200 yards but does run in one score and toss another to Marquise Brown. Falcons 21-17

Detroit at LA Chargers (+2.5), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Technically, the Lions are only one win up on the Vikings in the NFC North, but giving them the division crown seems like just a formality. Coming out of its bye, Detroit is healthy-ish, and only Baltimore has managed to hold the team under 20 points so far in 2023. Jared Goff is trying to shake off the whole home/road split thing, and his highest passing-yards total of the year did come in Tampa bay, although his 4:2 TD:INT in three away contests is a far cry from his 8:3 mark in four home games. David Motgomery should also be back this week, which gives Dan Campbell a tough decision when it comes to the division of labor in his backfield. Montgomery did score six rushing touchdowns in his first four games this year, but rookie Jahmyr Gibbs piled up 315 scrimmage yards and two TDs over the last two games while Montgomery was sidelined. There could be enough offense here for both backs to be productive, but Gibbs has arguably been the most explosive back in the league when he's gotten his chances (although De'Von Achane would likely be in that top right quadrant with him if he met the carries threshold), so it might be tough for even Campbell to justify going back to business as usual.

So far this season, the Chargers have had four straight streaks of two, either wins or losses, leaving them at 4-4 (and not boding well for this one, considering they just won two straight.) None of the wins have come against true contenders though, while they're 0-3 against Miami, Dallas and Kansas City, which marks them as one of this season's gatekeeper teams. Justin Herbert's overall numbers still look fine, but since breaking a finger on his non-throwing hand he's posted a 61.5 percent completion rate, 6.8 YPA and 7:4 TD:INT over the last five games, failing to complete even 60 percent of his passes in four of them. Until he shows he isn't bothered by the injury any more, it's tough to have much faith in this team putting together a second-half surge. It's a situation much like the one the Bengals were in to begin the year as Joe Burrow played through his calf issue, and like Cincy, the Bolts' defense is starting to rise to the occasion. The unit's produced eight takeaways in the last four games while holding three of those opponents to 20 points or less, including the Cowboys in a 20-17 loss. (Patrick Mahomes did light them up during that stretch, but he does that a lot.) If DC Derrick Ansley's crew can stay reasonably stingy and buy Herbert enough time to get back into form, maybe they make some noise in December, but the best-case scenario here might be that the Chargers get a chance to play spoiler against the Bills in Week 16 and in their Week 18 rematch with K.C.

The Skinny

DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
LAC injuries: WR Joshua Palmer (IR, knee)

DET DFS targets: Goff $6,400 DK / $8,000 FD (LAC 32nd in net passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed)
LAC DFS targets: none

DET DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC are 12th in third-down conversions at 41.4 percent; DET is second in third-down defense at 32.6 percent

The Scoop: Gibbs leads the DET backfield with 90 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Montgomery also runs for 50 yards and a score. Goff throws for 300 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Austin Ekeler picks up 70 scrimmage yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 270 yards and two scores, hitting Quentin Johnston and Gerald Everett. Lions 31-28

NY Giants (+16) at Dallas, o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

I wonder if the quarterback injuries buy Brian Daboll a mulligan on 2023. Not that I thought he was in serious danger of getting fired in the offseason, but he wouldn't be the first coach to have initial success before getting a quick boot. I do have questions about the decision to stick with Tommy DeVito under center though, instead of, well, anybody else. DeVito looked a little better against the Raiders last week than he did the week before against the Jets, but given the quality of the opposition, I would certainly hope he did. The undrafted rookie free agent still didn't look particularly good against Vegas though, and a matchup against Dan Quinn's ball-hawking defense is a disaster waiting to happen. The Giants' defense had been holding its own for a few weeks, but after getting punched in the mouth early by the Raiders they wilted, and the unit has now failed to produce a takeaway in five of nine contests this season. Saquon Barkley's doing the best he can, but 457 scrimmage yards over the last four games has led him to only one trip to the end zone, and even if he did erupt for some monster performance, it probably wouldn't be enough. This could be a very rough couple months for Giants fans until the season is mercifully over.

Cue the Al Pacino Inches speech from Any Given Sunday. The Cowboys were oh-so-close to stealing a win in Philly, but Luke Schoonmaker was inches short of the goal line in the fourth quarter, and then Dak Prescott put a toe on the chalk along the sideline on a two-point conversion attempt, and that was that. At 5-3, Dallas is still looking good for a playoff spot, but they're now three wins back of the Eagles in the NFC East, and a division title's probably off the table. The defense remains the bedrock of their success – the team as a whole is third in the league in scoring at 27.5 PPG, but that's bolstered by an incredible five DST touchdowns, including three pick-sixes by DaRon Bland – and that's hidden the fact that Mike McCarthy taking over play-calling hasn't exactly been a game-changer. I know, we're all shocked. Dak Prescott's rolling right now with a 71.4 percent completion rate, 9.0 YPA and 8:1 TD:INT over that last three games, but that's come at the expense of Tony Pollard, who somehow hasn't gotten into the end zone since Week 1 and has a grand total of 118 scrimmage yards in two weeks since the team's bye. While I appreciate the whole "stick with what's working" argument, really good teams find a way to feed all their most talented players, not simply shelve them (see also: Brandin Cooks.)

The Skinny

NYG injuries: QB Daniel Jones (IR, knee), QB Tyrod Taylor (IR, ribs), TE Darren Waller (IR, hamstring), K Graham Gano (IR, knee)
DAL injuries: LB Leighton Vander Esch (IR, neck)

NYG DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: Pollard $7,300 DK / $7,800 FD (NYG 28th in rushing DVOA, 29th in YPC allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed)

NYG DFS fades: Wan'Dale Robinson $3,700 DK / $5,700 FD (DAL second in DVOA vs. WR3), Giants DST $2,100 DK / $3,000 FD (t-28th in takeaways, 31st in sacks, DAL t-5th in giveaways)
DAL DFS fades: Cooks $4,200 DK / $5,300 FD (NYG third in DVOA vs. WR2)

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-1 DAL, average score 31-18 DAL, average margin of victory 13 points. DAL has won six straight games at AT&T Stadium by an average score of... 31-18. Huh. NYG's last win in Dallas was a 20-19 nail biter in Week 1 of 2016, when Eli Manning threw for three TDs including a fourth-quarter game-winner to Victor Cruz
Key stat: NYG are 30th in red-zone conversions at 36.4 percent (8-for-22); DAL is 22nd in red-zone defense at 60.0 percent (12-for-20)

The Scoop: Barkley gains 70 scrimmage yards. DeVito throws for under 200 yards, gets sacked five times and picked off twice, one of which Damone Clark returns to the house. Pollard breaks out with 120 combined yards and a touchdown, while Rico Dowdle also punches in a score. Prescott throws for 240 yards and a TD to CeeDee Lamb. Cowboys 34-6

Washington (+6.5) at Seattle, o/u 45.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

It's Washington State versus Washington District, in what I'm going to call the Jim Zorn Bowl. The Commanders' last four games, and seven of their nine on the year, have been decided by a single score, so they at least usually keep things entertaining when they aren't getting their butts kicked by the Bears. On paper, they're even the first alternate for a wild-card spot right now as the best of the NFC's 4-5 teams, but making the playoffs seems... let's say optimistic. The front office certainly thinks so, after shipping out most of the pass rush at the trade deadline. Sam Howell's on pace for over 4,600 passing yards, as much because the team's defense is bad as it is the aerial attack is that good, but the second-year QB still has the weapons to keep that up as well as the opportunity.

The Seahawks handed the NFC West lead back to the 49ers with last week's loss to the Ravens – both teams are 5-3, but Seattle's 1-1 within the division while San Francisco's 2-0 – but it's the way they lost that should be concerning for 'Hawks fans, as it was the second time this season they got shut out after halftime. It was also the third time the defense gave up over 400 yards and 30 points, and while the unit can bully around inferior opponents like the Giants and Cardinals, like most bullies, it doesn't do so well when someone pushes back. The offense has also hit something of a rough patch, as Geno Smith has a 4:6 TD:INT over the last four games and Kenneth Walker is coming off his worst effort of the year. Rookie Zach Charbonnet has seen more snaps, just not more touches, in each of the last two weeks, and a backfield that's been something of a revolving door due to injuries the last few seasons might be about to go for a spin again. A matchup against the Commanders, who rank in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories, should be a good time to get right, but the Seahawks' recent form doesn't provide a lot of confidence they'll take advantage.

The Skinny

WAS injuries: WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, toe), LB Cody Barton (IR, ankle)
SEA injuries: LB Jordyn Brooks (questionable, hamstring)

WAS DFS targets: none
SEA DFS targets: DK Metcalf $6,800 DK / $7,300 FD (WAS 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

WAS DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA is 11th in net yards per play at 0.28; WAS is 25th at -0.57

Weather notes: overcast, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 70-80 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Brian Robinson gains 50 yards. Howell throws for 210 yards and a TD to Terry McLaurin. After an early fumble by Walker, Charbonnet leads the SEA backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Smith throws for 280 yards and scores to Metcalf (who tops 100 yards) and Noah Fant. Seahawks 21-13

SUNDAY NIGHT

NY Jets at Las Vegas (+1.5), o/u 36 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Jets saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week, and the loss came in the usual fashion as they failed to scored more than 20 points for the sixth time in eight games, this time managing a season-low six points against the Chargers. Zach Wilson's just not getting the job done. He's failed to throw a TD in half his games this year, and he's only tossed multiple touchdowns once. Wilson's one of three starting QBs with a sub-60 percent completion rate (Jordan Love and Matthew Stafford are the others), and his YPA is a brutal 6.0, nestled between Joshua Dobbs and Tyson Bagent in the bottom five in the league. Much like the other New York roster, Breece Hall can only do so much to keep the offense afloat, but at least the Jets have a legit threat at wideout in Garrett Wilson that secondaries have to pay attention to, and a defense that's capable of creating a win when it only has a point total in the teens to work with.

Interim coach Antonio Pierce couldn't have picked a better opponent to begin his tenure with than the Giants, and the Raiders essentially had a blank canvas on which to express themselves and show how they really felt about Josh McDaniels getting kicked to the curb. Maxx Crosby led the defense to eight sacks and two picks, while Josh Jacobs had his best performance of the season and rookie QB Aidan O'Connell showed Jimmy Garoppolo how it was done and avoided any turnovers. As a reward, Vegas now gets to face the Jets, Dolphins and Kansas City before finally getting their bye. Gulp. It's entirely possible this team doesn't win another game until hosting the Broncos in Week 18. Any hope of an upset in the second half likely comes down to whether Davante Adams can get going. He's somehow only produced a 5-45-0 line over the last two games despite 14 targets, and he hasn't gotten into the end zone since Week 3. We're about three games past the point when I thought he would break back out just on general principle, but if you're looking for a sliver of optimism Adams did catch eight passes for 75 yards in O'Connell's very first start back in Week 4.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: QB Aaron Rodgers (IR, Achilles)
LV injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

NYJ DFS targets: Hall $6,700 DK / $7,900 FD (LV 29th in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed)
LV DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: O'Connell $4,800 DK / $6,400 FD (NYJ third in net passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), Jakobi Meyers $6,200 DK / $7,100 FD (NYJ first in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: LV is t-22nd in red-zone conversions at 48.3 percent (14-for-29); NYJ are fourth in red-zone defense at 41.7 percent (10-for-24)

The Scoop: Hall produces 80 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD. Wilson throws for under 200 yards. Jacobs grinds out 60 yards. O'Connell also throws for under 200 yards and a touchdown to Michael Mayer but also tosses an untimely INT that sets up the winning score in overtime. Jets 16-13

THURSDAY NIGHT

Carolina (+3.5) at Chicago, o/u 39 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Some of the drama is leeched out of this game for draftniks since the Bears already get the Panthers' first-round pick in 2024, but on the other hand, at least neither club has a reason to phone it in for draft position Thursday. At the moment, the Panthers actually have a slightly better record than the Cardinals at 1-7, but one of those teams is about to get Kyler Murray back under center while the other is still living with Bryce Young's growing pains, and they were especially painful last week. Young will have to chalk up throwing two pick-sixes to the same guy as a learning experience. The 2023 first overall pick's 5.5 YPA is the lowest in the league, and that's despite a game plan that's asked him to be very cautious — per Next Gen Stats, Young throws into tight coverage less often than any other QB in the league, and only Joe Burrow has averaged fewer intended air yards per attempt (and Burrow's had a pretty darn good excuse for his numbers.) Until Frank Reich thinks Young's ready to open things up a bit — and let's be honest, his performance against the Colts last week doesn't suggest he is — this is going to be a very low-upside, low-octane offense. Miles Sanders showed a bit of life last week, so maybe the running game can provide some balance, but it's not like defenses need to keep their safeties back and shy away from stacking the box against Young.

The Bears could also get their mobile starting quarterback back soon, as Justin Fields' thumb is said to be improving, though that probably won't happen on a short week. Heading into Wednesday they hadn't really had a real practice this week, though, so he hasn't had much chance to test out his grip. In the three games Fields has missed, Tyson Bagent has quickly gone from inspiring story to overmatched rookie, committing four turnovers in last week's loss to the Saints. Chicago still needs to decide whether Fields is their guy for the long term or if they need to draft a new QB (assuming Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles haven't made that decision already), but even if they've determined it's time to move on, a good close to the season for the third-year quarterback would boost his trade value. The rest of the roster is slowly settling into place — D'Onta Foreman seems to be getting a real look as RB1, while Montez Sweat got handed a big extension (and then promptly failed to record a sack in his Chicago debut.) He could have more success against Young, though, who's been sacked the fourth-most times in the league (tied with Russell Wilson at 26; Sam Howell's been brought down 44 times and Zach Wilson 31, while Daniel Jones has been sacked 30 times in only six games.)

The Skinny

CAR injuries: WR DJ Chark (doubtful, elbow), EDGE Brian Burns (out, concussion), EDGE Justin Houston (IR, hamstring)
CHI injuries: QB Fields (doubtful, thumb), RB Khalil Herbert (IR-R, ankle), LB Tremaine Edmunds (out, knee)

CAR DFS targets: Young $5,100 DK / $6,600 FD (CHI 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing TDs allowed)
CHI DFS targets: Foreman $5,500 DK / $6,700 FD (CAR 32nd in rushing DVOA, 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed), DJ Moore $5,800 DK / $7,200 FD (CAR 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)

CAR DFS fades: Chuba Hubbard $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD and Sanders $4,600 DK / $5,200 FD (CHI fourth in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed)
CHI DFS fades: Darnell Mooney $3,400 DK / $6,000 FD (CAR fourth in DVOA vs. WR2), Tyler Scott $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (CAR third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: CHI is seventh in red-zone conversions at 64.0 percent (16-for-25); CAR is t-31st in red-zone defense at 75.0 percent (21-for-28). The team they are tied with is CHI, but CAR is only t-16th in red-zone offense at 52.4 percent (11-for-21)

Weather notes: cloudy, temperature in the high 40s, 10-15 mph wind, 1-5 percent chance of rain 

The Scoop: Sanders leads the CAR backfield with 60 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdown. Young throws for 200 yards and a second TD to Adam Thielen. Foreman rumbles for 100 yards and a score. Bagent throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Moore for a touchdown, and Sweat begins to earn his contract with a fumble recovery for a TD. Bears 24-17

Last week's record: 10-4, 8-6 ATS, 6-7-1 o/u
2023 record: 79-57, 65-67-4 ATS, 73-60-3 o/u