NFL Game Previews: Bills-Bengals Matchup

Buffalo at Cincinnati (+1.5), o/u 49.5 – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The final Monday Nighter of the year features a possible AFC championship game preview, which isn't too bad. The Bills have won six straight to stay ahead of the pack for the top seed in the conference, and the offense is firing on all cylinders again, piling up 67 points the last two games, including last week's dismantling of the Bears in conditions that would have shut down lesser units. In a sense, they did — Josh Allen threw for less than 200 yards — but he, Devin Singletary and James Cook combined for a massive 246 yards and three TDs on the ground. Stefon Diggs has somehow become the forgotten man the last few weeks, posting just a 10-123-0 line on 16 targets, but he's more than capable of going off any time. Buffalo's defense has also allowed 13 points or less in three of the last four wins, and the whole team appears to be finding that extra gear just ahead of the playoffs. Hopefully they don't lose it over their bye week, if they get one.

It's no sure thing Buffalo will stay in the top seed. The Bengals have won seven straight, and this matchup actually ties the MNF record for most combined wins between opponents at 23 (Week 16 of 1997 between the Broncos and 49ers. San Francisco won the game 34-17, and both of them made their conference finals that year en route to Denver's Super Bowl win over Green Bay.) Cincy did stumble last week in the second half against New England but didn't fall, and the team has proven itself capable of winning different ways — they've scored more than 30 points three times during the win streak, and held opponents to 18 points or less three times. Joe Burrow's uncharacteristically thrown four picks over the last three games, which is a bit worrisome, but he's also tossed 16 TDs in six games since the team's bye. The key, of course, has been the o-line's ability to keep Burrow upright. After the unit's brutal start to the season, they've allowed two sacks or less in all seven of those wins. When Burrow has time to find Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, there usually isn't much the other team's secondary can do about it.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
CIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

BUF DFS targets: Gabe Davis $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD (CIN 31st in DVOA vs. WR2)
CIN DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: Hayden Hurst $3,200 DK / $5,200 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: CIN fourth in third-down conversions at 47.1 percent; BUF 11th in third-down defense at 37.9 percent

Weather notes: 5-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Singletary leads the BUF backfield with 70 yards and a TD. Allen throws for 280 yards and runs for 40 more, tossing three touchdowns — one each to Dawson Knox, Davis and Isaiah McKenzie. Joe Mixon picks up 70 yards and a score as well. Burrow answers back with 320 yards and three TDs, two to Chase (who tops 100 yards) and one to Tyler Boyd. Bengals 34-28

Arizona (+3.5) at Atlanta, o/u 42 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Do we really have to do this? These teams have a combined nine wins and could both end up picking in the top 5 next year, so this game is about as low stakes as online poker using free-play chips, but I guess someone has to win it. Or maybe not. We have had two ties already this season. The Cardinals have lost five straight, scoring more than 16 points once during that stretch, and Kliff Kingsbury's absurd futility at Jake From State Farm Stadium continues — they'll wrap up 2022 just 1-8 at home, after losing their final five home dates in 2021. Kyler Murray's done for the year, and Colt McCoy won't be back under center after his concussion symptoms returned, but at least the half-dozen TV viewers of this contest won't subjected to another three hours of announcers trying to talk up Trace McSorley as a viable NFL quarterback. David Blough, who signed with Arizona less than three weeks ago, will start after McSorley threw three interceptions last week. If you want an example of the disparity between Arizona's signal-callers, just ask DeAndre Hopkins. In the last two games catching passes from McCoy, he posted a 14-139-0 line on 22 targets. Solid! Last week with McSorley, he caught one of 10 targets for four yards. One. Of. Ten. How inaccurate do you have to be to throw uncatchable balls to this guy 90 percent of the time? Am I just bitter because my fantasy team with Hopkins (and Stefon Diggs ... sigh) got eliminated last week? You betcha. Anyway, Hopkins' knee is suddenly bothering him in practice, and I wouldn't blame him one bit if he uses it as an excuse not to have to deal with Blough or McSorley again. If there's a break in the clouds for Arizona, it's that James Conner has scored a TD in six consecutive games, leaving him one short of the franchise record he tied last year.

Given the horror show that is the NFC South, the Falcons getting trapped between thinking they had a chance to steal the division and looking ahead to 2023 is completely understandable. Heck, flip their one-point loss to the Saints in their opener (or a six-point loss to the Bucs in Week 5, or a three-point loss to the Saints again in Week 15 ... you get the idea) and they'd still be in the hunt. Desmond Ridder looked a little more like a potentially viable starting QB last week, and while the offense hasn't done much in his two outings, he at least recognizes who he should be feeding the ball to — Drake London's turned 20 targets into a 14-166-0 line with Ridder at the helm. Fellow rookie Tyler Allgeier has also taken over as the lead man in the backfield, and while it's a little early to be slinging the word "triplets" around to describe the group of 2022 draftees, Allgeier has been surprisingly good, and a better big-play threat than his Combine results suggested. Ridder's development is still the key to the team's prospects next season, but add a healthy Kyle Pitts and the kid will have some dangerous options at his disposal.

The Skinny

ARI injuries: QB Murray (IR, knee), QB McCoy (out, concussion), WR Hopkins (questionable, knee), WR Rondale Moore (IR, groin), TE Zach Ertz (IR, knee)
ATL injuries: QB Marcus Mariota (IR, knee), TE Pitts (IR, knee)

ARI DFS targets: McCoy $5,200 DK / $6,400 FD (ATL 30th in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed), Marquise Brown $5,500 DK / $6,900 FD (ATL 28th in DVOA vs. WR2)
ATL DFS targets: Damiere Byrd $3,000 DK / $5,100 FD (ARI 27th in DVOA vs. WR3), MyCole Pruitt $2,500 DK / $4,600 FD and Anthony Firkser $2,500 DK / $4,400 FD (ARI 28th in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: London $,900 DK / $6,700 FD (ARI first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: ATL 12th in third-down conversions at 41.8 percent; ARI 26th in third-down defense at 42.5 percent

The Scoop: Conner rumbles for 70 yards and a TD. Blough throws for less than 200 yards. Allgeier responds with 90 yards and a score. Ridder throws for 210 yards and hits Firkser for his first career NFL touchdown. Falcons 17-10

Chicago (+6) at Detroit, o/u 52 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Bears must be torn. Playing spoiler against a division foe is always sweet, but their hold on the second pick in the 2023 draft is tenuous with a cluster of four-wins teams behind them. Chicago's lost eight straight, the last four by an average score of 30-15, so this isn't a team building momentum or anything — unlike, say, Houston. Hey, maybe the Bears can still land the top pick! Justin Fields continues to play through a shoulder injury then got his foot stepped on last week, but he'll keep toughing it out. If I'm Matt Eberflus, I'm telling Fields he's done enough this year and letting Nathan Peterman carry the team to that precious top draft slot, but what do I know? The backfield got Khalil Herbert back against the Bills, and while he didn't do much in his return, he and David Montgomery get a much softer matchup here. Good thing too, as the Bears really don't have any healthy wideouts left, unless you count Byron Pringle, occasional kick returner and heir to the pseudo-potato chip fortune.

The Lions' embarrassing performance last week in Carolina makes their road to the postseason that much tougher, but Dan Campbell's crew isn't dead yet. In fact, Detroit can help thin the herd of teams a half-game back of the Commanders that are still chasing the final wild card, as a win here and a Green Bay loss eliminates the Packers. They'd won six of seven prior to getting mauled by the Panthers, and Jared Goff even had a rare good road performance last week. Over his last seven games, he has a a 12:0 TD:INT with solid efficiency numbers (66.3 percent completion rate, 7.7 YPA), and that stretch started with a 31-30 win over the Bears at Soldier Field. Two rushing TDs and an INT return to the house from Jeff Okudah drove the scoring in that one, but it could be Goff's turn to lead the way, along with the younger and better St. Brown brother.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: WR Chase Claypool (questionable, knee), WR Dante Pettis (questionable, ankle), WR Darnell Mooney (IR, ankle)
DET injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

CHI DFS targets: Fields $7,900 DK / $8,400 FD (DET 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed to QB, 31st in rushing TDs allowed to QB), Montgomery $6,900 DK / $7,500 FD and Herbert $4,000 DK / $5,500 FD (DET 30th in YPC allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)
DET DFS targets: Goff $5,600 DK / $7,400 FD (CHI 29th in passing DVOA, 30th in YPA allowed), D'Andre Swift $5,300 DK / $7,100 FD and Jamaal Williams $5,000 DK / $6,600 FD (CHI 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,800 DK / $8,200 FD (CHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)

CHI DFS fades: Bears DST $2,800 DK / $3,500 FD (32nd in sacks, DET second in sacks allowed, t-1st in giveaways)
DET DFS fades: Josh Reynolds $3,700 DK / $5,400 FD (CHI seventh in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DET t-3rd in red-zone conversions at 68.4 percent; CHI 28th in red-zone defense at 64.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 CHI, average score 24-21 CHI, average margin of victory six points. Seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by a single score. CHI has won four straight games at Ford Field 

The Scoop: Montgomery leads the CHI backfield with 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, while Herbert adds 60 yards. Fields throws for 250 yards and two scores, hitting Cole Kmet and Equanimeous St. Brown while running in a TD of his own. Swift leads the DET backfield with 120 combined yards, while Williams chips in 60 yards and a score. Goff throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, two to Amon-Ra (who tops 100 yards) and one to DJ Chark. Lions 34-31

Jacksonville at Houston (+4.5), o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Jaguars have won exactly one (1) division title in the 2000s, that magic 2017 season when Doug Marrone figured out the best path to success involved not letting Blake Bortles throw the ball 600-plus times, and the Sacksonville defense and Leonard Fournette would have gotten them to the Super Bowl if it weren't for that meddling Danny Amendola. Here they are on top of the AFC South, though, even if they'll still have to beat the Titans in Week 18 to sew it up. Like Tennessee, this Week 17 game is relatively meaningless for Jacksonville, but Doug Pederson has made noises about taking pride in finishing above .500, which would require the team to win its final two games. Unlike the Titans, the Jags may not rest key personnel, at least not to start the game. Trevor Lawrence wasn't particularly productive last week against the Jets aside from a rushing touchdown, but in five games since the Jags' bye he's posted a 67.2 percent completion rate, 7.7 YPA and 11:1 TD:INT while dealing with an inconvenient toe injury, chipping in a second score on the ground along the way. He's survived the Urban Meyer crucible and come out the other side still looking like a franchise QB, which is an impressive feat all on its own.

The Texans are still hanging onto the top pick in next year's draft, but they seem to be peaking? After going down to the wire in losses to Dallas and Kansas City the prior two weeks, they may have ruined Tennessee's season with an actual win in Week 16. One of the most hilarious stats of Chaos Season might be Houston's winning record against the rest of the AFC South (2-1-1), though they still have time to screw it up. Davis Mills hasn't thrown for 200 yards since regaining the starting job a few games ago and was barely noticeable in the Texans' Week 5 victory over the Jags, but the guy that did carry them to that win, Dameon Pierce, isn't playing again this year. Somehow, Royce Freeman doesn't seem like an adequate replacement. If Houston's going to pull out another upset, the defense will probably need to pick Lawrence off another couple times.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: QB Lawrence (questionable, toe), WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension)
HOU injuries: RB Pierce (IR, ankle), RB Dare Ogunbowale (questionable, knee), WR Nico Collins (IR, foot), TE Teagan Quitoriano (out, knee)

JAC DFS targets: Travis Etienne $6,400 DK / $7,700 FD (HOU 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 30th in rushing TDs allowed)
HOU DFS targets: Mills $5,000 DK / $6,300 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA), Jordan Akins $3,100 DK / $4,900 FD (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

JAC DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC t-9th in third-down conversions at 42.2 percent; HOU t-19th in third-down defense at 39.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 HOU, average score 21-16 HOU, average margin of victory 15 points. HOU has won nine straight meetings by an average score of 24-12

The Scoop: Etienne gallops for 130 yards and a score. Lawrence throws for 240 yards and a TD to Evan Engram. Freeman leads the HOU backfield with 50 yards. Mills throws for less than 200 yards and a touchdown to Brandin Cooks, and a fumble recovery TD by Jerry Hughes keeps things close. Jaguars 20-17

Denver (+13.5) at Kansas City, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Broncos defense won its biggest battle of the year last week, as the unit finally phoned one in and forced the front office's hand with regard to the continued employment of Nathaniel Hackett. The ex-head coach had been clearly in over his head since Week 1, but the defense kept things close enough — Denver has eight one-score losses, including three in overtime — to paper over the general ineptitude that marked Hackett's regime. (Maybe if they'd coughed up 51 points to, I dunno, Zach Wilson or something back in October, he would have gotten canned soon enough to give the team a chance to save its season.) Jerry Rosburg is the most interim-y replacement possible, so expect Denver to try to woo a big-name coach like Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh in the offseason rather than going back to the unproven coordinator well. Until then, Russell Wilson will keep trying to do too much, though that has been working out for Jerry Jeudy lately (21-266-3 on 27 targets over the last three games.)

Andy Reid's crew remains a tiebreaker behind the Bills for the top seed in the AFC seed, with the Bengals hot on both their trails, so none of them can afford to slip up. Kansas City's won three straight and eight of nine, with the only loss coming to Cincy, and their final two games come against one team that just fired its coach and another that just benched its QB ahead of a probable offseason trade. Meanwhile, the Bills and Bengals play each other Monday. That's about the best setup for which K.C. fans could ask. Patrick Mahomes' quest to dethrone Peyton Manning took a hit last week though, and he now needs 758 passing yards in the final two games to set a record. It's not impossible, at least not for Mahomes — in his first meetings of the season against the Broncos and Raiders combined, he fired up 644 yards, which isn't too far off — but it's far from likely. He'll likely just have to be content with his second career 5,000-yard, 40-TD campaign. Ho hum.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: RB Javonte Williams (IR, knee), WR Jeudy (questionable, ankle), WR Kendall Hinton (questionable, hamstring), WR KJ Hamler (IR, hamstring), WR Tim Patrick (IR, knee), TE Greg Dulcich (questionable, hamstring)
KC injuries: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR, ankle), WR Mecole Hardman (IR-R, abdomen)

DEN DFS targets: Chase Edmonds $4,400 DK / $4,500 FD (KC 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Jeudy $6,400 DK / $7,000 FD (KC 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: Hinton $3,800 DK / $5,000 FD (KC fifth in DVOA vs. WR3)
KC DFS fades: Mahomes $8,500 DK / $9,000 FD (DEN fourth in passing DVOA, first in YPA allowed, third in passing TDs allowed), Kadarius Toney $4,200 DK / $5,700 FD and Justin Watson $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (DEN second in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DEN 32nd in third-down conversions at 28.6 percent; KC 12th in third-down defense at 38.1 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 11-0 KC, average score 29-17 KC, average margin of victory 12 points. KC has won 14 straight meetings

Weather notes: 1-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Latavius Murray grinds out 70 yards and a TD, while Edmonds adds 70 scrimmage yards. Wilson throws for 260 yards and a score to Jeudy. Isiah Pacheco leads the K.C. backfield with 100 combined yards and a touchdown. Mahomes throws for 270 yards and three scores, two to Travis Kelce and one to JuJu Smith-Schuster. Kansas City 28-20

Miami (+3) at New England, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Are the Dolphins the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL now? I realize that's a somewhat ridiculous question while Dan Snyder is still around, but hear me out. On the field, the team's supposed franchise QB has sustained a concussion that mysteriously went undiagnosed during a crucial game and remained in the lineup. TWICE. The second instance came after the first was so egregious, the "independent" neurologist on the sideline lost his job, and the league changed its concussion protocols. Off the field, the departure of their former coach generated a racial discrimination lawsuit, while Miami's botched pursuit of Tom Brady will cost it their first-round pick in 2023. Through it all, Mike McDaniel has walked the tightrope between "endearingly wacky" and "NFT enthusiast" pretty well, but four straight losses has the coach's stock collapsing as quickly as Tesla's. Miami's clinging to the final wild card in the AFC, and the formerly jet-fueled offense has scored 20 or fewer points in three of those losses. Tyreek Hill's still getting his, averaging nearly 100 yards a game in the five weeks since the team's bye, and Jaylen Waddle's coming off back-to-back 100-yard performances, but nothing much else is working. The duo did fine earlier this season in the two games Teddy Bridgewater saw significant action (Weeks 4 and 6), but one of those games was against the Vikings secondary so it probably shouldn't count.

The Patriots are one of the 7-8 teams chasing the Fish for that third wild card. New England lost the first meeting back in Week 1 and have lost four of their last five, with the spectre of that ugly final play against the Raiders still hanging over their heads. Miami's also had their numbers in general in recent years and their final game is in Buffalo, so Bill Belichick is in serious danger of missing the playoffs and posting a losing record for the second time in three years. The offense remains the problem — the Pats have running a streak of nine consecutive games with fewer than 20 first downs, which is brutal. Rhamondre Stevenson has popped for the occasional big effort, but Mac Jones' ceiling appears to be "reliable bus driver," and even that might be a reach. He's thrown five TDs over the last six games, and while he's only committed one turnover during that time, that kind of low-wattage production only works if it's paired with an elite defense that can generate short fields, or an absolute juggernaut of a running game (or, preferably, both). New England has neither.

The Skinny

MIA injuries: QB Tua Tagovailoa (out, concussion)
NE injuries: RB Stevenson (questionable, ankle), WR DeVante Parker (out, concussion), WR Tyquan Thornton (questionable, knee), TE Hunter Henry (questionable, knee)

MIA DFS targets: none
NE DFS targets: Henry $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. TE), Patriots DST $2,600 DK / $4,000 FD (second in sacks, third in takeaways)

MIA DFS fades: Bridgewater $5,000 DK / $6,100 FD (NE third in passing DVOA), Hill $8,900 DK / $9,000 FD (MIA third in DVOA vs. WR1)
NE DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIA 22nd in third-down conversions at 37.3 percent; NE 21st in third-down defense at 40.0 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 MIA, average score 25-20 NE, average margin of victory 13 points. MIA has won four straight meetings by an average score of 23-15

Weather notes: 10-11 mph wind, 1-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Raheem Mostert leads the MIA backfield with 60 yards. Bridgewater throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Hill and Waddle once each. Stevenson racks up 90 yards and two scores. Jones throws for 240 yards and a TD to Henry. Patriots 24-20

Indianapolis (+6) at N.Y. Giants, o/u 38.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Nick Foles' Colts debut went worse, I think, than anybody expected, even the folks that don't like Foles. He made a Chargers defense that finished the game without its three best players (Joey Bosa, J.C. Jackson and Derwin James) look like the 49ers. It's possible the problem may not be the quarterback. Jeff Saturday and the coaching staff look simply lost, and without Jonathan Taylor the opposition has nothing to fear from Indy. Zack Moss has actually looked OK in Taylor's place, but nobody's stacking the box against him. At least the Colts defense didn't completely collapse in the fourth quarter last week. The team's headed nowhere but the top 5 in the 2023 draft, and it's still possible it winds up taking the second quarterback from next year's draft class, depending on where they finish and whether a team like Chicago is able to trade down. The track record of recent No. 2 QBs in draft classes isn't exactly great (Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold etc.), but there's always the hope of finding the next Patrick Mahomes instead.

Speaking of one of those guys, Jones tipped dangerously close to reverting to form last week with an interception and a fumble that the Giants recovered, but the team still lost. His 334 passing yards looks impressive, but once you apply the Vikings exchange rate it's more like 272. He hasn't thrown multiple TDs in any of the last six games, and Brian Daboll's efforts to keep him from deciding a game one way or another are starting to unravel. Saquon Barkley and the defense are still keeping Big Blue competitive, and they remain all but locked into a wild-card spot — even if they drop their final two games, it would take two of the four teams behind them (the Commanders, Seahawks, Lions and Packers) winning out to bump them — but going 1-4-1 over their last six doesn't give them a lot of momentum coming into this one.

The Skinny

IND injuries: RB Taylor (IR, ankle), TE Kylen Granson (out, ankle)
NYG injuries: WR Sterling Shepard (IR, knee), WR Wan'Dale Robinson (IR, knee)

IND DFS targets: Moss $5,400 DK / $6,900 FD and Deon Jackson $5,500 DK / $6,200 FD (NYG 31st in rushing DVOA, 32nd in YPC allowed), Mo Alie-Cox $2,500 DK / $4,500 FD and Jelani Woods $2,800 DK / $4,700 FD (NYG 31st in DVOA vs. TE)
NYG DFS targets: Giants DST $3,900 DK / $4,700 FD (IND 31st in sacks allowed, 32nd in giveaways)

IND DFS fades: Parris Campbell $4,600 DK / $5,800 FD (NYG fourth in DVOA vs. WR2)
NYG DFS fades: none

Key stat: IND 31st in red-zone conversions at 43.9 percent; NYG seventh in red-zone defense at 51.8 percent

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Moss collects 80 yards. Foles throws for 220 yards and a TD to Woods, and only manages to get picked off twice and sacked five times — though one of the latter results in a fumble that Jaylon Smith returns to the house. Barkley gains 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Jones throws for less than 200 yards but hits Darius Slayton for a score. Giants 21-16

New Orleans (+6.5) at Philadelphia, o/u 44 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Are the Saints the team that will step up to actually win the NFC South, rather than being the one least successful at losing? They've won consecutive games, even if it was against Atlanta and Cleveland, and an underrated defense has really come together, allowing 20 points or less in six straight. Unfortunately, the offense has scored more than 21 only once during that stretch. There have been signs of life, though. Alvin Kamara has 167 rushing yards and a TD the last two games, even if Andy Dalton won't throw him the ball for some reason (just six targets combined in those contests, a figure he topped four times in his first six games this year), but Chris Olave's hamstring strain has cost an already underpowered passing game its only reliable weapon. If Kamara and Dalton could both be productive at the same time, New Orleans might actually be a threat to playoff teams.

In the grand scheme of the NFL season, last week's loss to the Cowboys probably won't mean much to the Eagles. They're still holding onto the top seed in the NFC, and still have the luxury of letting Jalen Hurts' shoulder heal up 100 percent rather than pushing him back into action as soon as possible. That game was also the sixth time this season Philly's scored at least 34 points (they went 5-0 in the others), so the offense will be fine for however long Gardner Minshew is in charge. A.J. Brown is putting together a huge kick to the finish line regardless of who's been under center, topping 100 yards in three of the last four games and posting a 27-473-3 line on 40 targets over that stretch. If there's a yellow flag (wow, I'm really mixing up my race metaphors here) on the Eagles' road to the Super Bowl, it's the performance of the defense. Washington, Green Bay and Dallas have all piled up more than 30 points against Philly, and the Cowboys became the first team to ring up more than 400 yards of offense against the unit this season. The Saints (and the Giants in Week 18) don't present the same level of threat, but that likely won't be the case in the playoffs.

The Skinny

NO injuries: RB Mark Ingram (IR, knee), WR Olave (questionable, hamstring), WR Michael Thomas (IR, toe), WR Jarvis Landry (IR, ankle)
PHI injuries: QB Hurts (doubtful, shoulder)

NO DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: Brown $7,900 DK / $8,400 FD (NO 29th in DVOA vs. WR1), Quez Watkins $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (NO 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Eagles DST $4,000 DK / $4,400 FD (first in sacks, second in takeaways)

NO DFS fades: Dalton $4,800 DK / $6,400 FD (PHI first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, third in YPA allowed), Olave $6,100 DK / $6,800 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Rashid Shaheed $4,000 DK / $5,600 FD (PHI third in DVOA vs. WR2)
PHI DFS fades: Minshew $5,500 DK / $7,500 FD (NO second in passing yards per game allowed, second in YPA allowed), DeVonta Smith $7,100 DK / $7,800 FD (NO sixth in DVOA vs. WR2), Dallas Goedert $4,700 DK / $6,000 FD (NO first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: PHI third in third-down conversions at 48.0 percent; NO 24th in third-down defense at 41.5 percent

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Kamara records 80 combined yards and a score. Dalton throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Olave and Tre'Quan Smith. Miles Sanders churns out 110 yards and two touchdowns. Minshew throws for 280 yards and a TD to Brown. Eagles 27-21

Carolina (+3) at Tampa Bay, o/u 39.5 – Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

Other than Bucs fans, is anybody rooting against the Panthers here? Steve Wilks' crew has won three of four, and if they can run the table they'll win their first division title since Cam Newton's MVP campaign in 2015. Of course, they'd do it without a winning record (nothing new for them), and my dream of a 7-10 division champ would remain alive with a Carolina victory. Sam Darnold continues to plug along — he hasn't committed a turnover in four starts and has an 8.6 YPA, but he also hasn't attempted more than 24 passes in a game and is averaging less than 200 yards a start with exactly one TD pass in each. It's an entirely competent level of play. Meanwhile, D'Onta Foreman continues to do a credible Derrick Henry impression, topping 100 rushing yards in five of the last nine games, and Chuba Hubbard joined in the fun with a career-high 125 rushing yards last week against the Lions. It's not exactly a formula for success, but it might just one that earns them a playoff spot.

The Buccaneers still sit atop the division at 7-8, though, and if they win here they get to wrap up their season in Atlanta. Tom Brady is basically Ben 10 (BT10?) at this point, only able to use his superpowers for brief stretches before reverting back to his human form. He's posted a 9:7 TD:INT in five games since Tampa Bay's bye with a feeble 5.6 YPA, but enough of those touchdowns have come late in games that the team's pulled out a couple wins. The backfield actually got going last week, with Leonard Fournette piling up a season-high 162 scrimmage yards and Rachaad White chipping in a receiving TD, and if that keeps up it would help steady the ship for the 58 minutes a game Brady looks like a 45-year-old man. The Bucs are still the most likely option to play host to the Cowboys in the first round of the playoffs, but if they flop here, anything could happen.

The Skinny

CAR injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
TB injuries: WR Julio Jones (questionable, knee)

CAR DFS targets: none
TB DFS targets: none

CAR DFS fades: Panthers DST $2,400 DK / $3,500 FD (29th in takeaways, TB first in sacks allowed)
TB DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR 31st in third-down conversions at 29.4 percent; TB sixth in third-down defense at 36.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 TB, average score 25-21 TB, average margin of victory 15 points. TB has won four straight meetings by an average score of 38-16 prior to CAR's 21-3 victory in Week 7

Weather notes: 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Foreman hammers out 70 yards and a touchdown. Darnold throws for 230 yards. Fournette leads the TB backfield with 80 combined yards and a score. Brady throws for 240 yards and a TD to Chris Godwin. Buccaneers 20-13

Cleveland (+2) at Washington, o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Browns are actually 2-2 since Deshaun Watson took over, but it certainly doesn't feel like it. Wins over the Texans and a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens squad don't count for much, and Watson's 2:3 TD:INT, 57.7 percent completion rate and 5.7 YPA carry the full weight of all the rust he accumulated during his layoff. What's worse, Nick Chubb doesn't have a 100-yard game or a touchdown during those four games, and an offense that was at least borderline functional under Jacoby Brissett has had all four wheels come off. They're averaging 11 points a game the last three, and while Myles Garrett and the Cleveland defense have mostly returned to form, that hasn't been enough. The Browns have basically turned into the Broncos down the stretch, though I suppose there will be more optimism their hugely expensive QB will look a lot better in 2023. I'm not exactly convinced yet Watson will thrive in Cleveland winter weather, but I guess we'll see.

At least there's no question about who the Browns' quarterback will be. Carson Wentz took over for Taylor Heinicke in last week's loss to the 49ers and posted pretty solid numbers, but it usually takes all four quarters to get the full Wentz experience in a game. Washington just got lucky which version of him showed up. Wentz will remain under center for this one, but there's really no appreciable difference between the two — Heinicke arguably doesn't have Wentz's ceiling, but he also doesn't have a sinkhole for a floor. Terry McLaurin will be sorry to see Heinicke go, at least, as he showed sketchy with Wentz earlier in the season, averaging barely more than six targets a game through the first six weeks but then 8.4 over the next eight games. On the other hand, Jahan Dotson's found the end zone in three consecutive games, and as he draws more attention maybe McLaurin can do more with less. The Commanders are still clinging to a half-game lead in the race for the final NFC wild card, but with three teams right behind them at 7-8, odds are good that if they stumble, someone will take advantage. The defense got Chase Young back last week, and while San Francisco blew it up, the unit has allowed 21 points or fewer in 10 straight heading into that game. If they are going to get into the postseason, it's likely Young and the defense that will lock it up, not Wentz (even if he gets all the credit anyway.)

The Skinny

CLE injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
WAS injuries: RB Antonio Gibson (out, knee), RB J.D. McKissic (IR, neck)

CLE DFS targets: David Bell $3,000 DK / $4,900 FD (WAS 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
WAS DFS targets: Dotson $4,600 DK / $6,100 FD (CLE 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)

CLE DFS fades: David Njoku $4,100 DK / $5,600 FD (WAS third in DVOA vs. TE)
WAS DFS fades: Curtis Samuel $4,400 DK / $5,900 FD (CLE sixth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: CLE 20th in third-down conversions at 38.0 percent; WAS t-2nd in third-down defense at 32.6 percent

Weather notes: no weather concerns

The Scoop: Chubb punches out 80 yards and a touchdown. Watson throws for 230 yards and a TD to Donovan Peoples-Jones, but a Young strip sack results in a fumble recovery score for Daron Payne. Brian Robinson manages 70 yards and a TD. Wentz throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Dotson. Commanders 24-14

San Francisco at Las Vegas (+6), o/u 45 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

I thought this spread was way too low when Derek Carr was still starting for the Raiders, so it's utterly ridiculous now, but hey – more power to you if you locked it in early in the week. The Niners have won eight straight games, the last three with third-string QB Brock Purdy starting under center, and only a couple of them have even been close. The average score during San Francisco's winning streak has been 29-12. Purdy's been the story of course (you call a guy "Mr. Irrelevant" a couple hundred times before his first start, and suddenly he's playing with a giant chip on his shoulder. Weird), posting a 69.6 percent completion rate, 6:1 TD:INT and stunning 9.2 YPA in his three starts, and he's done that despite Deebo Samuel playing only 24 snaps over that time. George Kittle's isntead been his top option, catching two touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. The defense has been an absolute terror too, with Washington's 20 points and 349 total yards last week being the high-water marks for an opponent during the win streak, and again I have to remind you this unit still isn't fully healthy, as two of the team's top three corners are on IR. If the Vikings flinch, the Niners are going to blow right past them for the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and woe to whichever wild-card team has to face them in the first round.

Beating the Patriots really was the Raiders' Super Bowl, wasn't it? After losing a bad-weather game in Pittsburgh last week, Vegas has decided to bench Carr to eliminate the risk he gets hurt and becomes harder to trade in the offseason due to contract guarantees locking in. It's not like they'll really be auditioning his potential replacement, although I suppose there's a worst-case scenario in which Jarrett Stidham is at the helm in Week 1 next year. The 26-year-old is at least familiar with Josh McDaniels' offense after being drafted by New England in the fourth round in 2019, but coming into the season he'd attempted 48 passes in the NFL and completed exactly half of them with a 2:4 TD:INT. Davante Adams had stopped clicking with Carr anyway, stumbling to a 9-114-0 line on 25 targets over the last three games, but it's hard to imagine the offense's outlook is improved with Stidham. Josh Jacobs appears to have the rushing crown all but in his grasp after Derrick Henry got shut down Thursday (Jacobs is 110 yards ahead, plus whatever he ekes out against the Niners' league-best run defense), but there's not much else Vegas has to look forward to.

The Skinny

SF injuries: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (out, foot), QB Trey Lance (IR, ankle), RB Elijah Mitchell (IR, knee), WR Samuel (out, knee)
LV injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

SF DFS targets: Christian McCaffrey $9,000 DK / $9,500 FD (LV 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB), Ray-Ray McCloud $3,400 DK / $5,300 FD (LV 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
LV DFS targets: Hunter Renfrow $4,000 DK / $5,400 FD (SF 31st in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS fades: none
LV DFS fades: Stidham $4,100 DK / $6,100 FD (SF fifth in passing DVOA), Josh Jacobs $7,400 DK / $8,500 FD (SF first in rushing DVOA, first in rushing yards per game allowed, first in YPC allowed, first in passing DVOA vs. RB)

Key stat: SF sixth in third-down conversions at 44.7 percent; LV 22nd in third-down defense at 40.7 percent

The Scoop McCaffrey erupts for 130 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one rushing and one receiving. Purdy throws for 240 yards and two more scores, one each to Brandon Aiyuk and Kittle. Jacobs is held to 50 yards. Stidham throws for under 200 yards and tosses a pick-six to Talanoa Hufanga, but he does manage to hit Adams for a TD. 49ers 38-10

New York Jets at Seattle (+1.5), o/u 42 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

What you're smelling is the desperation of these two teams. The Jets have lost four straight and have watched a potential playoff spot slowly fade into the distance, but they haven't been officially eliminated yet – wins in Seattle and Miami, and a bit of help from New England's opponents, and they're in. Mike White will return to the lineup after missing the last two games with a rib injury, but again, he lost his last two starts with a 0:2 TD:INT. Painting him as a savior is asking too much, but somebody on the offense has to be. The defense keeps doing its job, but the Jets have scored a grand total of 32 points over their last three losses. Garrett Wilson hasn't scored in those four defeats, so maybe he'll be the guy to step up.

The Seahawks have lost three straight and five of six, and they're now 7-8 and just outside a wild-card spot. The defense is in free-fall, and Geno Smith is running out of steam after a season spent bailing the unit out, posting a 5.4 YPA and 2:1 TD:INT over the last two games. Kenneth Walker is still playing through an ankle injury but certainly looked 100 percent last week, topping 100 rushing yards for the third time this year, but he's run extremely hot and cold ever since taking over the starting job in the backfield. Tyler Lockett could also make a somewhat remarkable return after missing only one game following surgery to fix a broken finger, but it'll be hard to rely on him to make an impact even if he is in the lineup. There's always DK Metcalf of course, but the points will need to come from somewhere, because you know the Seattle defense is going to cough some up.

The Skinny

NYJ injuries: RB Breece Hall (IR, knee)
SEA injuries: RB Walker (questionable, ankle), RB Travis Homer (questionable, ankle), RB Rashaad Penny (IR, ankle), WR Lockett (questionable, finger), WR Marquise Goodwin (doubtful, shoulder)

NYJ DFS targets: Zonovan Knight $5,100 DK / $6,400 FD and Michael Carter $5,100 DK / $6,100 FD (SEA 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB), Corey Davis $3,700 DK / $5,500 FD (SEA 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Tyler Conklin $2,900 DK / $4,900 FD (SEA 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
SEA DFS targets: none

NYJ DFS fades: Elijah Moore $3,500 DK / $5,300 FD (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR3)
SEA DFS fades: Smith $5,900 DK / $7,100 FD (NYJ fifth in YPA allowed, t-1st in passing TDs allowed), Lockett $6,600 DK / $6,000 FD (NYJ fifth in DVOA vs. WR2)

Key stat: NYJ t-28th in red-zone conversions at 46.5 percent; SEA 26th in red-zone defense at 62.5 percent

Weather notes: 5-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Carter leads the NYJ backfield with 70 combined yards and a TD, while Knight adds 50 yards and a score. White throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Conklin. Walker gains 60 yards and a score. Smith throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Metcalf and Noah Fant. Seahawks 24-21

Minnesota (+3.5) at Green Bay, o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

What else is there to say at this point about the Vikings' luck? Minnesota is 11-0 in one-score games this year, and 1-3 in the rest. At least the team's point differential is back in the black at plus-5. Kirk Cousins is rocking it down the stretch, averaging over 300 yards a game with a 69.8 percent completion rate and 13:3 TD:INT over the last five, and Justin Jefferson has ridden Cousins' hot hand to be 244 receiving yards short of the NFL's first ever 2,000-yard campaign from a wideout. He had 338 yards combined in the first meetings with the Packers and Bears, but both of those were at home, so weather could ultimately be the deciding factor in whether he gets there or not. Minnesota still has a shot at the top seed in the NFC, and they aren't going to pass up a chance to try and end Green Bay's season. Probably on a last-second field goal, as has been their MO.

The Packers have won three straight to stay alive in the wild-card hunt, and now they wrap up their schedule with two Lambeau games against NFC North rivals. A loss basically eliminates them, and two wins may not be enough, but Aaron Rodgers was built for "control what you can and let the chips fall where they may" scenarios. Weirdly, he hasn't been the key figure in the win streak, throwing only one TD in all three games. Instead the defense has bounced back from surrendering 40 points to the Eagles by giving up just 51 over the last three combined, while AJ Dillon has a four-game touchdown streak going. It would be nice if Christian Watson could stay healthy and regain his pre-bye form, but fellow rookie Romeo Doubs has shown flashes of chemistry with Rodgers too.

The Skinny

MIN injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
GB injuries: WR Watson (questionable, hip)

MIN DFS targets: Dalvin Cook $7,000 DK / $8,300 FD (GB 32nd in rushing DVOA, 29th in YPC allowed)
GB DFS targets: Rodgers $6,000 DK / $7,100 FD (MIN 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPA allowed)

MIN DFS fades: Cousins $6,400 DK / $7,600 FD (GB third in passing yards per game allowed), Adam Thielen $5,200 DK / $6,300 FD (GB first in DVOA vs. WR2)
GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: MIN 15th in third-down conversions at 40.4 percent; GB t-9th in third-down defense at 37.6 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-4-1 MIN, average score 22-22, average margin of victory 10 points

Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s

The Scoop Cook rumbles for 110 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Cousins throws for 270 yards and two scores, both to Jefferson (who tops 100 yards). Aaron Jones leads the GB backfield with 90 combined yards, while Dillon adds 60 yards and a TD. Rodgers throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Allen Lazard and Doubs before putting together a game-winning field goal drive late. Packers 30-27

Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, o/u 41 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Sorry, how am I supposed to give the Chargers any kind of home field advantage for this one? Serves them right for sharing a stadium. The Rams were the beneficiaries of the Broncos defense making a statement at Nathaniel Hackett's expense last week and have won two of three since Baker Mayfield came to town, but they remain poised to hand over a top-10 pick to the Lions in next year's draft as part of the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff trade. (It used to just be the Stafford trade, but Goff's season has probably forced Detroit to re-evaluate whether he might actually be worth keeping even after his contract becomes escapable.) Mayfield's improbable success working with a no-name cast of wideouts should be taken with a full shaker of salt though. He has yet to throw for more than 230 yards in a game as a Ram, and his 6.8 YPA isn't setting the world on fire. Cam Akers won't score three TDs a game for him, either. That said, this is a team full of guys getting chances to win a roster spot in 2023 thanks to all the injuries to the stars, and that's the kind of team that can catch an opponent napping.

The Bolts clinched a wild-card spot last week, so that's absolutely a danger here, but the gap between the top three AFC division winners and whoever emerges from the AFC South is wide enough that there should be plenty of motivation for the Chargers to try and catch a wounded Baltimore squad for the fifth seed. Justin Herbert and company have won three straight and four of five, but Herbert somehow hasn't had a lot to do with that recent success, managing just a 1:3 TD:INT over his last three games even with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams healthy again. Austin Ekeler stealing all the touchdowns has something to do with it, but Herbert's 73.4 percent completion rate and 305 passing yards a game in that time are just fine. The TDs will come, although that's little consolation if he took down your fantasy team in the meantime. The defense has also become suddenly stingy, allowing just 34 points over that three-game win streak, and now Joey Bosa will be in the lineup for the first time since Week 3.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: QB Stafford (IR, neck), WR Cooper Kupp (IR, ankle), Allen Robinson (IR, foot), WR Ben Skowronek (out, calf), TE Tyler Higbee (questionable, elbow)
LAC injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries

LAR DFS targets: none
LAC DFS targets: Allen $7,000 DK / $8,000 FD (LAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR1), Williams $6,700 DK / $7,200 FD (LAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

LAR DFS fades: Tutu Atwell $3,600 DK / $5,300 FD (LAC second in DVOA vs. WR2)
LAC DFS fades: Joshua Palmer $5,300 DK / $6,500 FD (LAR fourth in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: LAC t-9th in third-down conversions at 42.2 percent; LAR 23rd in third-down defense at 40.8 percent

The Scoop Akers manages 60 yards. Mayfield throws for under 200 yards and gets sacked four times but does hit Van Jefferson for a score. Ekeler picks up 80 combined yards and a TD. Herbert throws for 270 yards and a touchdown to Williams. Chargers 20-13

Pittsburgh (+3) at Baltimore, o/u 36 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Steelers could be all but eliminated from the playoffs by the time this game kicks off, as wins by either the Dolphins or Jets would just about wrap it up for Pittsburgh. (In theory, they could still sneak into a wild-card spot if Miami and New York in Week 18, putting them on the opposite side of last year's Week 18 chaos scenario.) There is also the little matter of Mike Tomlin never having a losing season during his time as the Steelers' head coach, so winning their last two and getting to 9-8, playoffs or no playoffs, is going to be on their minds. Kenny Pickett continues to offer little upside – in his 10 starts his best YPA is 7.04, and he has yet to toss multiple TDs in an NFL game – but his INT last week was his first turnover since Week 8, and minimal mistakes is all the team expects from him right now. The rookie QB may also want to try and get Diontae Johnson a touchdown before 2022 is in the books, just for fun, but what little offense Pittsburgh generates has mostly been going through Najee Harris in the second half. The second-year back has 577 scrimmage yards and five rushing TDs over the last seven games.

The Ravens in theory could still catch the Bengals atop the AFC North and at worst have locked up a wild-card spot, but which wild-card spot remains undetermined. Presumably they would want the one that gets them a trip to Jacksonville or Tennessee in the first round and not Cincinnati, Kansas City or Buffalo. Lamar Jackson will miss his fourth straight game, and while the team has gone 2-1 without him so far – including a Week 14 win in Pittsburgh – the offense has scored just 36 points over those three games, squeaking by mainly due to poor weather and poor opponents. The backfield at least appears to be back in form. After erupting for 245 rushing yards and a TD in his first two games off the IR, J.K. Dobbins let Gus Edwards rumble for 99 last week, with the guy taking the back seat in any particular week still racking up about 60 yards on a strong YPC. Tyler Huntley's done very little in Jackson's place, but so far he hasn't needed to, and the backup QB's biggest impact might be that he's cratered Mark Andrews' fantasy value at the worst possible time for fantasy GMs. We might forgive, Tyler, but we don't forget.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
BAL injuries: QB Jackson (out, knee), WR Rashod Bateman (IR, foot), WR Devin Duvernay (IR, foot) 

PIT DFS targets: none
BAL DFS targets: Huntley $5,200 DK / $6,600 FD (PIT 28th in YPA allowed, t-29th in passing TDs allowed)

PIT DFS fades: Harris $5,700 DK / $6,500 FD (BAL third in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed)
BAL DFS fades: none

Key stat: BAL 10th in net yards per play at 0.17; PIT 26th at -0.60

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 7-4 PIT, average score 21-21, average margin of victory seven points. The last five meetings, and seven of the last eight, have been decided by a single score

Weather notes: 10-20 percent chance of rain

The Scoop Harris grinds out 60 yards. Pickett throws for under 200 yards but does hit... what the heck, Johnson scores a TD. Dobbins leads the BAL backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown, while Edwards adds 50 and also finds the end zone. Huntley throws for under 200 yards. Ravens 14-13

Dallas at Tennessee (+10.5), o/u 40 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

There is a very real chance this one could get ugly fast. The Cowboys still have a shot at stealing the NFC East title from the Eagles if they win out and Philly doesn't win again, especially if Jalen Hurts remains sidelined through the end of the regular season. The more likely scenario, of course, is that they settle for the top wild-card spot in the conference and begin their playoff journey on the road at the NFC South winner, whichever pitiful squad that might be. (C'mon, 7-10 champ!) Dallas has won five of its last six, with the loss coming on that absurd walkoff interception return in OT by the Jaguars after the Cowboys had blown a 17-point lead, so if you were worried they needed a wakeup call before the postseason, they already got it. Dak Prescott has a 14:8 TD:INT over that stretch, and his too-frequent brain cramps remain the team's biggest weakness, though an injury-thinned secondary is a close second. Tony Pollard's also banged up a bit, but Ezekiel Elliott can handle a bigger workload for one week if need be, and CeeDee Lamb's solidified his spot as a legit WR1 since the team's bye with 49 catches on 62 targets for 651 yards and five TDs the last seven games. Stretch that pace out to the whole season, and he'd be third in the league in both catches and receiving yards, behind only Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill.

On the other hand, this is an old-school Week 16 game for the Titans, in that it's basically meaningless for them in the grand scheme of things. They're now technically behind Jacksonville in the battle for the AFC South due to losing to the Jags in their first meeting this season, but they clash again next week and Tennessee would still hang onto the crown based on the divisional record tiebreaker if it comes out on top next week, even if it loses here and Jacksonville beats Houston on Sunday. They'd also be a champ with a losing record in that scenario, so I guess it depends on how much that matters to Mike Vrabel whether the Titans go all out or rest key players ahead of their winner-take-all season finale. Malik Willis will be under center regardless, as Ryan Tannehill's done for the year after undergoing ankle surgery, which already puts them behind the eight ball as Willis is, to put it charitably, a work in progress as a passer. Derrick Henry's also nursing a hip injury, and even if the Titans come out swinging, it's really easy to envision a scenario in which they get behind early and just pack it in rather than risking anyone important.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: RB Pollard (questionable, thigh)
TEN injuries: QB Tannehill (out, ankle), RB Henry (doubtful, hip), RB Dontrell Hilliard (IR, neck)

DAL DFS targets: Prescott $10,600 DK / $17,500 FD (TEN 31st in passing yards per game allowed, t-29th in passing TDs allowed), T.Y. Hilton $4,400 DK / $6,500 FD and Noah Brown $5,200 DK / $7,000 FD (TEN 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
TEN DFS targets: Treylon Burks $5,400 DK / $11,000 FD (DAL 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

DAL DFS fades: Pollard $9,200 DK / $13,500 FD and Elliott $8,800 DK / $13,000 FD (TEN second in rushing DVOA, second in rushing yards per game allowed, second in YPC allowed, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed)
TEN DFS fades: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4,600 DK / $7,000 FD (DAL third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: DAL second in red-zone conversions at 70.6 percent; TEN 17th in red-zone defense at 55.8 percent

Weather notes: 11 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Elliott leads the DAL backfield with 70 yards, but Malik Davis adds 50 yards and a score. Prescott throws for 270 yards and three touchdowns, finding Lamb, Jake Ferguson and Hilton. Hassan Haskins leads the TEN backfield with 50 yards. Willis throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does hit Burks for his first career passing TD in garbage time. Cowboys 34-13

Last week's record: 11-5, 7-9 ATS, 11-5 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 134-104-2, 108-125-7 ATS, 126-113-1 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1422-873-9, 1113-1117-74 ATS, 861-900-31 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)