This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Picks Today: Bills vs Ravens NFL Divisional Round Best Bets

We trimmed some of the fat last weekend by knocking out six teams in the NFL postseason. Now, in the "Elite Eight" territory of the playoffs, each team is one win away from playing in a Conference Championship game. Even with the season coming to a close, things are getting red-hot in here. Let's see who marches on.

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Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Buffalo Bills | Total: 51.5

Although there are three other great matchups this weekend, it seems most of us have pretty much been hearing about this one all week. So much on the line team-wise, but the back and forth about Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen for MVP. Lamar this. Josh that. The media has done their best to turn this game into the end-all-be-all for each QBs legacy for the rest of their careers. We might as well just make this one the Super Bowl and call it a day. 

Back in late September, I was out in Scottsdale for my good friend's bachelor party. We did a whole Sunday football afternoon - where I realized how much I love the 10 AM start time out west- at the Barstool Sportsbook. Even after funneling countless Espresso Martinis, I made sure we had to rush back to the Air BnB for that Week 4 SNF contest. At the time, I was surprised how much of a mismatch it was when Baltimore put it on the Bills 35-10. Like a lot of other people, I learned a lot about these two teams, and what it could mean if they were destined for a playoff rematch.

The Ravens have been one of the darlings of the NFL in 2024. Lamar Jackson's had not only an incredible season statistically, but the maturation of him as a passer and QB may be the thing that elevates this team to new heights. Of course, the addition of Derrick Henry in my opinion is the celery stick that stirs the Spicy Bloody Mary. The impossible task of having to defend both of them in the same backfield is a nightmare, which is why the Ravens offense was able to average the most yards per game (424.9) and third most points (30.5 PPG). 

If you look back at the first bout, the reason why Baltimore was able to dominate was because of the relentless efficiency and physicality of that run game where they toted the rock 34 times for 271 yards (8.0 YPC) and two scores. Henry had 199 yards on 24 carries and Lamar 54 yards on six carries. They were up 21-3 at half, and by that point it was too late. But can that same formula really happen again?

The truth is I think this game will be a lot closer this time around, but yes the same formula will be the reason why the Ravens win. While the Bills run defense on paper looks solid (115.5 YPG - 12th best), they've allowed the better backs in the league to carve them up. De'Von Achane (96 yards in first game), Breece Hall (113 yards), Henry (199 yards), Jonathan Taylor (114 yards), Christian McCaffrey (Had 53 yards on seven carries before leaving early with injury) all were able to exploit this front seven. It would take a Herculean effort from the interior defensive line with Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones to somewhat neutralize Henry. To make matters worse, you also have to defense Jackson's QB reads and designed runs with the EDGE rushers and backers. Most teams have been unable to do that this year.

Passing wise, the Ravens would throw it more than 18 times in this go around I imagine. And that's where they've struggled albeit having a couple of injuries in their secondary. Even without WR Zay Flowers, Buffalo's pass defense (226.1 YPG - Bottom Ten) might be susceptible to the speedy and often open Ravens pass catchers. The pass game built off the Nascar style ground attack has been incredibly difficult to stop for opposing defense all season. Point blank, it would take a heroic effort from Buffalo to neutralize this offense even somewhat.

Honestly, I'm rooting for Buffalo. I've never been a die-hard Josh Allen fan, but this year I have to tip my hat. In the preseason, I thought this team would take a big step back with a slightly above average at best roster, but Allen put everybody on his back and carried them to this point. What it would mean for him in a season where he SHOULD be the MVP to emerge victorious in this contest is indescribable. 

The offense is definitely going to need to pick up the slack though. While Baltimore's defense is much improved in the second half of the year, their secondary is where you can attack (244.1 YPG - 2nd worst). I would expect quick passes and Allen to get the ball out of his hand early to negate the aggressive Ravens pass rush that ranked second in sacks (54). Take advantage of James Cook and the other backs in the pass game with a defense that allowed the fourth most receiving yards to RBs (674) and the 10th most receptions. Cut down on the negative plays and stay ahead of the sticks.

I do think trying to establish something of a balanced offense early is critical as well. Although Baltimore has been one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL (80.1 YPG- best). As a matter of fact, Saquon Barkley is the only back to have 100 yards on the ground vs. them this season. There is a concern the Bills running game could be a non-factor outside of some Allen runs, but dropping back 40+ times is usually a tough way to win.

Regardless, it's going to be an uphill battle. Allen will have to wear the cape with the "S" on his chest to give his team a chance to win. It just seems like too much to overcome. 

Pick: Ravens ML -118 FD