NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 17 Sunday

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 17 Sunday

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 17 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features eight games. Byes are no longer a factor, but only half the league plays during Sunday's main slate, which doesn't include the two Christmas games, Thursday Night Football, three Saturday games, Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 17, but the biggest is the NFL $100K Guaranteed contest, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,144 finishers, including $20,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 5,850 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $100K Guaranteed lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 17 plays include an affordable QB-WR stack, a pair of RBs who have significantly outperformed their preseason fantasy valuations, and a surging bargain TE.

QUARTERBACK

Bryce Young, CAR at TB ($26): Young has quietly turned the corner in recent weeks, and while he still isn't living up to the expectations of being drafted first overall in 2023, the second-year QB at least looks like he belongs in the NFL now. Over his last four games, Young has thrown five touchdown passes and run in an additional three TDs while averaging 19.56 fantasy points per game. Young's mobility should help him outperform his modest valuation against a Buccaneers defense that just allowed Cooper Rush to throw for 292 yards. Overall, Tampa Bay is one of four teams that has allowed QBs to compile over 4,000 passing yards this season, and the Buccaneers have allowed six rushing TDs to the position (tied for third-most) in addition to a 24:7 TD:INT through the air.

Honorable Mentions:

Baker Mayfield, TB vs. CAR ($33); Anthony Richardson, IND at NYG ($29); Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at CLE ($27)

Against the Grainers:

Josh Allen, BUF vs. NYJ ($39); Sam Darnold, MIN vs. GB ($32); Jordan Love, GB at MIN ($29)

RUNNING BACK

Bucky Irving, TB vs. CAR ($31): Irving is the clear top option on the ground in Tampa Bay's backfield, having rushed for 501 yards and four TDs on 85 attempts (5.9 YPC) over the past six games. Rachaad White is still the preferred option in passing situations, but Irving has also shown plenty of ability as a pass catcher, reeling in all 18 of his targets over this six-game stretch for 146 yards. The best game of Irving's rookie season so far came in the first meeting with the Panthers four weeks ago, when he turned 28 touches into 185 scrimmage yards and a TD. In a game the Buccaneers need to have in the NFC South race, look for Tampa Bay to ride Irving against a Carolina defense that has allowed the most rushing yards (2,116) and second-most rushing TDs (16) to RBs.

Alexander Mattison, LV at NO ($20): Mattison reclaimed the lead role last week in a Raiders backfield that has undergone significant shifts due to injuries. With Zamir White (quadriceps) and Sincere McCormick (ankle) both on IR, Mattison should continue to work as the top option on early downs against the Saints, with Ameer Abdullah mixing in for passing situations. Mattison has handled at least 16 touches in five of his last eight games, and a robust workload would likely lead to success in Week 17 against a flagging Saints team that has been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. The Packers produced 188 yards and three TDs on the ground in addition to shutting out New Orleans on Monday, and the Saints have now allowed the most rushing TDs in the NFL to RBs (17).

Honorable Mentions:

Saquon Barkley, PHI vs. DAL ($40); De'Von Achane, MIA at CLE ($37); Jonathan Taylor, IND at NYG ($32)

Against the Grainers:

Rico Dowdle, DAL at PHI ($28); Jerome Ford, CLE vs. MIA ($25); Tank Bigsby, JAC vs. TEN ($20)

WIDE RECEIVER

Brian Thomas, JAC vs. TEN ($33): Thomas' emergence has been a silver lining in an otherwise forgettable season for the Jaguars. He's up to 1,088 yards and nine TDs overall thanks to a whopping 19 catches for 237 yards and three TDs on 27 targets over the past two games. Already just the sixth rookie since 2000 to reach 1,000 receiving yards and catch nine touchdown passes, Thomas is rolling down the stretch and is unlikely to slow down against a Titans defense that's giving up the second-most points per game in the league (27.8). Only the Panthers (29.9) are worse.

Jayden Reed, GB at MIN ($19): Reed has been a boom-or-bust fantasy play in his young career, but he has exclusively boomed in this NFC North rivalry. The second-year wideout has reached 80 receiving yards in seven of 31 career-regular season games overall but is 3-for-3 against the Vikings, with 17 catches for 311 yards and three TDs across those three meetings. Reed set season highs in targets (eight), catches (seven) and receiving yards (139) in addition to scoring a TD when these teams met back in Week 4, and his big-play ability should be on full display in this rematch against a Vikings secondary that has allowed the most catches (224) and receiving yards (2,850) to WRs this season.

Jalen Coker, CAR at TB ($18): Coker and David Moore ($14) could both be in for increased roles against Tampa Bay's vulnerable secondary, as Xavier Legette is fighting an uphill battle to return from a hip injury while Adam Thielen aggravated a hamstring injury in practice Thursday. Whether you're stacking with Young or simply searching for a bargain, Carolina's receiving corps is a good place to look against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the fourth-most catches (208) and ninth-most receiving yards (2,377) to WRs. Coker has demonstrated a decent ceiling with at least 78 yards and a TD in two of his last five games.

Honorable Mentions:

Mike Evans, TB vs. CAR ($34); Malik Nabers, NYG vs. IND ($28); Calvin Ridley, TEN at JAC ($24)

Against the Grainers:

Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. GB ($38); Garrett Wilson, NYJ at BUF ($27); Brandin Cooks, DAL at PHI ($15)

TIGHT END

Chig Okonkwo, TEN at JAC ($14): Okonkwo has enjoyed a late-season surge since the Titans made the move from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph under center. The 25-year-old TE has caught 17 of 21 targets for 140 yards over the last two games, accounting for over one-third of Okonkwo's 47 catches on the season. Okonkwo's chemistry with Rudolph makes the former a low-risk, high-reward option at just $14 against a Jaguars defense that came into Week 17 tied for the fourth-most TDs allowed to TEs (seven).

Honorable Mentions:

Brock Bowers, LV at NO ($26); Jonnu Smith, MIA at CLE ($24); T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. GB ($15)

Against the Grainers: 

Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. NYJ ($15); Brenton Strange, JAC vs. TEN ($12); Jake Ferguson, DAL at PHI ($11)

DEFENSE

Miami Dolphins at CLE ($16): Cleveland has been a fantasy goldmine for opposing defenses throughout the season, regardless of which flawed QB the Browns threw out there. Deshaun Watson was downright terrible while getting sacked more than any QB in the NFL prior to his season-ending Achilles tear, Jameis Winston produced some impressive yardage totals but was a turnover machine, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson has a 1:9 career TD:INT. The Dolphins are expected to face a banged-up Robinson (calf), who just threw two interceptions and took five sacks against the Bengals in his first start of the season last week. Miami hasn't been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, so the Dolphins defense will have plenty of motivation for this highly favorable matchup.

Honorable Mentions:

Indianapolis Colts at NYG ($20); Philadelphia Eagles vs. DAL ($17); Las Vegas Raiders at NO ($10)

Against the Grainers: 

Green Bay Packers at MIN ($15); Dallas Cowboys at PHI ($14); Jacksonville Jaguars vs. TEN ($10)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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