This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Sunday Night Football Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Week 2
The New England Patriots will host the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night for the first of two AFC East showdowns between the squads. Head coach Bill Belichick will be looking to avoid going 0-2 for the first time since the 2001 season.
The Dolphins engaged in a memorable 36-34 shootout with the Chargers in Week 1 that put the best of the Tua Tagovailoa-Tyreek Hill connection on full display. Tagovailoa finished with 466 passing yards, with Hill on the receiving end of 11 of his completions and 215 of those yards.
Meanwhile, the Patriots managed to prevent what looked like it could be a season-opening rout early against the Eagles, losing by a narrow 25-20 score thanks to some resilient play on both sides of the ball after early struggles.
Naturally, there's no shortage of familiarity between these longtime rivals, setting up what should be an intriguing prime-time battle.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Betting Odds for Week 2
*Best lines at time of writing listed
- Moneyline: Dolphins -148 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Patriots +136 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Point spread: Dolphins -3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Patriots +3 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Totals: Over 46 points (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Under 45.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
There hasn't been much movement this week spread-wise, with the number coming down at most to Dolphins -2.5 on Thursday. Seeing the Fins as three-point road favorites seems fitting based on what we saw out of Tagovailoa and company against the Chargers.
These teams played one another closely in their most recent meeting, with the Pats just squeezing past a Skylar Thompson-led Miami team, 23-21, on New Year's Day of last season. With a healthy Tagovailoa under center this time, it's hard to imagine the Under hitting despite five of the last six games in the series finishing below 46 points.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Betting Picks This Week
Despite a minuscule sample size, I don't think it's an overreaction to state these two teams are a level apart in 2023. After just one week, Miami looked like a genuine contender should the team stay healthy all season. On the other hand, while New England gets credit for perseverance against the defending NFC champs, their performance clearly was at least a tier below the caliber of some of the better teams in the league.
Much of the Patriots' problems in the opener appeared to stem from the offensive side of the ball, despite embattled quarterback Mac Jones putting together a solid stat line by game's end. The big-name backfield pairing of Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson finished the contest with a combined 54 yards on 19 carries. New England's lack of a run game led to plenty of pressure on Jones, who padded the stat sheet by going 34-for-54 for 316 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. While Jones is capable of replicating such an effort against a Dolphins secondary that showed its fair share of vulnerability in Week 1, getting in a shootout against Miami isn't a good idea. Just ask Justin Herbert and friends.
After one game, the Dolphins undoubtedly appear on track to garner a top-five ranking on offense. In addition to a solid running back room that should eventually get Jeff Wilson back from multiple injuries, the wide receiver tandem of Hill and Jaylen Waddle is on the short list of top wideout duos in the NFL. Combine the star power at the skill positions with an innovative offensive mind in head coach Mike McDaniel and an ascending star in Tagovailoa, and you have an explosive attack that could eventually prove to be matchup-proof.
Naturally, the Patriots' defense has a way of solving some of the league's best offenses, so that last statement does come with a caveat. New England did a reasonably good job containing Hill a year ago – limiting the game-breaker to 12 receptions for 149 yards and a rushing TD over two meetings. However, Tagovailoa did put up 270 passing yards while completing 23 of 33 passes in his sole meeting with New England in 2022, which came in McDaniel's Week 1 coaching debut.
While it's very possible the Dolphins' offense can't muster the same elite efficiency as it did in Week 1, I'm in the camp of the Fins finding a way for the second straight week while also facing an offense that has a bit less explosive firepower than that of the Chargers.
Dolphins at Patriots Best Bets: Dolphins -3 (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Prediction
Dolphins 28, Patriots 23
The Patriots' messy start to Week 1 worries me heading into this week's matchup. The team looked sloppy on both sides of the ball at times, which won't be sustainable against such a high-powered offense like Miami's.
It will be important to see how Stevenson and Elliott look on the ground this week. The Dolphins struggled plenty against Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley in Week 1, and an effective rushing attack could be a way for New England to control the tempo of the game and potentially make this close.
Nevertheless, when all is said and done, I see the Dolphins outgunning the Patriots if necessary to pull out a close victory.
