College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 6

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Updated on October 6, 2017 1:58AM EST

CHRIS' PICKS

As I've moved to 0-3 on totals to date, all I'll offer as words of wisdom are to tell my editors to not allow me to post plays on points, or to make this column exclusively totals based and imagine the fading opportunities. Outside of that, Week 5 offered some solid choices once the final whistle blew despite going 0-1 against my colleague. Week 6 represents a struggle for yours truly, as I don't feel good about picking against usual disappointments Connecticut and East Carolina. Time to pick on someone else, and after writing, I realize I'm going with my "home conference, picking plenty of ACC games." Guess I'm about to test my knowledge and see if I actually have a clue what's going on!

Virginia –2.5 vs. Duke

The Cavaliers have looked surprisingly capable on offense, especially with down-field passing from quarterback Kurt Benkert, who's thrown three scores in three of the first four games, leading to a 17th-ranked passing attack that averages 312.3 yards per game. They'll be well rested following a bye and will look to carry momentum from an upset at Boise State two weeks ago. Duke is a team that appears to be going in the opposite direction. While they've only lost once, the Blue Devils haven't played particularly well against North Carolina, Baylor or Miami, and their impressive beatdown of Northwestern looks less than stellar in hindsight. They've been vulnerable to deep passes as well, allowing at least 259 yards through

I'll openly say I'm hoping to put on a jinx. I'll make no qualms about the fact that I'm a die-hard Hurricane, so I'll happily be wrong in an effort to secure a Canes win Saturday. Both defenses are stout, but Miami has shown vulnerabilities in it's secondary that could allow James Blackmon to hit a few throws downfield. Miami quarterback Malik Rosier doesn't give them a huge advantage over Blackmon, and appears to be a one-read quarterback. Florida State has beaten Miami seven consecutive times, and this is a team that was trailing Alabama only 10-7 midway through the third quarter. Until Miami beats FSU, it has no business being favored, especially in Tallahassee.

Notre Dame –14 at North Carolina

This line has been incredibly volatile, opening at 17.5 before dropping to 13.5, and now it appears to be climbing again. It likely has to do with the questionable status of Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush, who has been rumored to be in a walking boot. And while his potential absence would take away the rushing threat, Wimbush hasn't been lighting things up with his arm, and Ian Book, if pressed into duty, could offer a more capable passer to the mix. Either way, I'm not sure it matters. Notre Dame's offensive line is dominant, and North Carolina's defense, well the entire team, is decimated by injuries. The Heels also can't score, having only 19 touchdowns this season while the Irish have 20 on the ground alone. UNC hasn't quit and is still playing hard, so maybe it catches lightning in a bottle, but the Irish should impose their will in Chapel Hill.

Kentucky –10 vs. Missouri

Something about this line stinks. Because otherwise, it is far too low, and amazingly opened at 13 and has dropped. My colleague picked on Mizzou last week, and now it's my turn. The Tigers simply aren't a good football team on either side of the ball. They've managed to total 30 points in their last three games while allowing at least 31 in every game this season. Kentucky seems to play up or down to its opponent a bit, with narrow wins over Eastern Michigan and Eastern Kentucky, and doesn't do anything particularly well offensively. And while the Wildcats' defense is stout against the run and weak in the back, Missouri quarterback Drew Lock has completed only 49.5 percent (49 of 99) of this throws since Week 1, suggesting he won't be able to take full advantage of that deficiency.

Michigan –10 vs. Michigan State

The total in this game has fallen nearly five points to just 39.5, but I'm refusing to look at over/under's for more than information at this point. So if we're expecting something in the 25-15 final score range, I'll start by questioning whether the Spartans can score 15. They put up 17 at home last week on a solid, but not spectacular Iowa defense, and managed only 18 on a mid-tier Notre Dame defense the week prior. Sparty's leading rusher is quarterback Brian Lewerke, which is something I don't think Jim Harbaugh's defense will allow. Michigan ranks first in total defense, allowing 203.3 yards per game, sixth in forced fumbles with eight, average 8.5 tackles for loss per game and have three interceptions. Expect the defense to swallow up Michigan State and create short fields to allow the offense to stretch this lead to a comfortable margin.

Last week: 3-2; Season: 16-12-1

GREG'S PICKS

I spent the first four weeks on easy street in that it was relatively stress free. That changed last week as I strolled down bad beat alley. First the stress free games, USC (loss), Washington (win) and Maryland (win). As for the other two, man, they were tough to swallow. I will say that neither of the bad beats were in position to cover all that long, but the way in which they lost the cover is what matters. Kansas State held a comfortable margin for most of the game, but it was never covering. That's because a Wildcats WR dropped a sure TD pass on third down late in the fourth quarter that would have put them ahead of the number. Vanderbilt scored late to get inside that number against Florida, but the Gators covered on what would have been their last play on offense, turning a 4th-and-1, into a TD. If the running back gets the first down and not the TD, from the 35-yard-line mind you, the game is over and the cover secured. That's the breaks, though still not a terrible week. 

 Illinois +18 at Iowa

  A week after a hard-fought loss against the Nittany Lions, the Hawkeyes failed to muster enough to top the lowly Michigan State Spartans. OK, so MSU isn't terrible, but it certainly isn't very good either. It was a winnable game and one that a good Iowa team would have won, but that's the problem, this isn't a very good Iowa team. The Hawkeyes are always going to give a huge effort in spots like the one they faced against Penn State, but outside of those spots, this team leaves a lot to be desired. Illinois is likely destined for the cellar of the Big Ten this season, but the Illini have won two games and didn't get embarrassed by a sound South Florida squad. It's not much, but you don't need much when trying to stay within 18 points.

 Maryland +30 at Ohio State

  I'm not sure what the Terps have to do to get some respect around Vegas. All they do is win games on the road as huge dogs. They are again huge underdogs this week, but this game is obviously different than playing at Texas or at Minnesota. That said, this team obviously has a lot of fight in it as it won with its third-string QB last week as a double-digit dog. OSU is coming off its third runaway win in as many weeks and complacency could become a factor soon. I don't see a scenario in which Maryland gets yet another road win, but I do expect the Terps to fight the entire 60 minutes and stay within the number.

  Purdue -3 vs. Minnesota

Sometimes you get into a groove with a team, and that's where I am with the Gophers. The Gophers are coming off a bad loss in which they didn't play well in any aspect of the game, and I don't expect a miraculous turn around in seven days. Perhaps of most concern is the status of their defensive backfield, which is likely to be without its top defender in Antione Winfield Jr. In addition to that loss, they are also without two other starters. Against a ground attack, this wouldn't be a huge deal, but against Purdue, they are in trouble. The Boilermakers have fought hard in every game this season and will take advantage of one of the few winnable games on their schedule.

Over 80 Texas Tech at Kansas  

The Red Raiders have had a down couple weeks, scoring a combined 61 points against Oklahoma State and Houston, but things are about to get easier as they face the Jayhawks. Kansas can't beat anyone of note, but to its credit, the Jayhawks have been competitive this season … well on offense anyway. The Jayhawks average 32.3 points per game this season, and if they can put up 30-plus points in this spot, that should be plenty to get this number over the total. This will be one of those games where the Red Raiders play extremely loose, both on offense and defense, which means plenty of points.

Oregon (+1.5) vs. Washington State

A number of factors are in play as the Ducks welcome the Cougars. Let's start with WSU's huge win over USC last Friday night. While it was an impressive win, USC was without half its offensive line, which certainly made a difference. In addition, I dare say that these Cougars have never had to deal with this much success. Yes, success, it can be hard to deal with for college kids as they often overreact to finally slaying the beast. WSU might not be properly prepared for this game. The Ducks are coming off a nice win against Cal, but they lost their starting QB. That's obviously factored into the spread, however, which brings me to the third factor. Oregon is a dog at home to Washington State. WSU might be improved, but it won't sit well with the Ducks that they are home dogs to anyone outside USC.

 Last Week: 2-3; Season: 14-12