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College Football Best Bets: Mountain West Championship Game
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First off, thank you Fresno State. Since Colorado State avoided both Boise State and UNLV on the schedule this year as it cruised toward a potential spot in the Mountain West conference title game. However, the Rams dropped a game to the Bulldogs. And so , with all due respect to a good Rams team, we get the two best Mountain West teams squaring off.
This is the only conference title game in the Group of Five featuring two ranked teams. UNLV ranks 20th, but Boise State ranks 10th. The Broncos have a huge opportunity. If they win, they won't just make the first 12-team playoff in FBS football. No, they will likely earn a first-round bye unless the playoff committee gets squirrelly and places the Big 12 champion above them. Of course, the Broncos have to win first, and that won't be easy.
Mountain West Championship Game Odds
Spread: Boise State -4 (BetRivers Sportsbook), UNLV +4.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 57.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 57.5 (-105 BetMGM)
Moneyline: Boise State -186 (BetRivers Sportsbook), UNLV +175 (ESPN BET)
Lines across the conference title games are largely thin, marginally speaking, so this one fits right in line with that. The question, then, becomes if this game will actually end as close as these odds indicate.
Mountain West Championship Game Betting Picks
You don't end up ranked 10th as a Group of Five team if you aren't formidable, and Boise State is formidable. The Broncos have lost just once this season, and that was a three-point defeat at the hands of the Oregon Ducks, the undefeated top-ranked team in the nation. That game was in Eugene as well. The Rebels are no slouches, though. They finished the regular season 10-2. UNLV lost 44-41 to Syracuse, a team that proved better than expected. Oh, and UNLV also lost 29-24 to Boise State.
Yes, as is often the case in conference title games, these two teams have played already. The Broncos beat the Rebels by five points in Las Vegas. This game will be in Boise, and the home team can see a playoff spot over the horizon. Although, if UNLV wins, it will likely get in the playoff over Army. The question thus becomes what path does UNLV have to playing Boise State closer on the road than it did at home back in October.
Well, Hajj-Malik Williams was already in his fifth week starting under center for UNLV after Matthew Sluka dipped out on the team, so it's not like he was still getting into a groove. Ashton Jeanty comes in off his fifth 200-yard game of the season, and he appears healthy. This is his last opportunity to add to his Heisman resume. Every Boise State win came by at least four points. And the four-point win was on the road in Laramie against Wyoming, one of the toughest places to play among Group of Five schools. Other than "stuff happens," I see no argument for Boise State doing worse than it did on the road in Las Vegas earlier this season.
Boise State vs. UNLV Best Bet: Boise State -4.0 (BetRiver Sportsbook)
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Mountain West Championship Game Betting Predictions
Jeanty did have his worst game of the season against the Rebels, needing 33 carries to get to 128 yards and a touchdown. Boise State's defense made things tough on UNLV as well, though. The Broncos racked up six sacks and nine tackles for loss. Jai'Den Thomas only had seven carries and Ricky White was held to five catches for 57 yards. Even if Jeanty doesn't manage to get over 150 yards, we have already seen Boise State keep UNLV in check. Also, I fully imagine Jeanty will indeed get over 150 yards in this one, and you can count on at least 30 carries if that's what the Broncos needs to get the win. I think it stay close, but I like the Broncos to win by a touchdown at home and punch their ticket to the playoff.
