Sweet 16 Preview: Midwest Region

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Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
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Site: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO

Tip-Off: Friday, March 24, 7:15 p.m. EST

The Midwest region has had hardly any upsets to the top seeds through the first two rounds of March Madness. 

No. 5 Miami's 85-69 win over No. 4 Indiana is the only reason the four remaining teams aren't just the top four seeds. However, this makes for exciting matchups, as no team will have an easy path against an inferior squad. Houston has won both of its games by double digits, but Texas, Xavier and Miami have all had their own scares. 

Now, let's dive straight into the Sweet 16 battles. 

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 5 Miami 

Key Matchup: Marcus Sasser vs. Isaiah Wong. Houston and Miami's shooting guards are both of their team's leading scorers and arguably their best players. Despite battling a groin injury, Sasser had an impressive effort in Saturday's blowout win over Auburn, scoring 22 points while nailing five of his nine three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Wong recorded 27 points and eight rebounds while connecting four of his own long-range bombs in Sunday's win over Indiana. The result of this game might come down to who gets the better of the other in this matchup.

Houston will Win IF: It continues to control the glass. Houston has out-rebounded its opponents by nine and 11 in their first two contests. Jarace Walker and J'Wan Roberts have been a two-headed monster, combining for an average of 20.0 points, 17.5 rebounds and 7.0 blocks in their first two NCAA Tournament games. Miami will need Norchad Omier to continue his dominant run of 14 and 17 boards in the tournament in order to compete down low.

Miami will Win IF: It can get hot from three. Miami has shot 36.8 percent from three this season, ranking 39th in the country. With Nijel Pack, Isaiah Wong, Nisine Poplar and Jordan Miller, the Hurricanes have four outside threats in their starting lineup, giving them more spacing than most squads. Even sixth man Bensley Joseph shoots 39.3 percent on 2.5 long-range attempts per game. Miami barely mounted a comeback win against No. 12 Drake in the first round after making just six threes but shot 39.1 percent from downtown in its convincing win over Indiana. 

Player to Watch: Nisine Poplar, G/F, Miami. Poplar is just Miami's fifth-leading scorer but has started in 33 of his 34 appearances this season. The sophomore guard suffered a back injury in Sunday's game, putting his status for the Sweet 16 in question. Poplar is an efficient role player, shooting 47.7 percent from the field, 40.2 from three and 87.8 from the free-throw line. He also brings quality perimeter defense, tallying 1.2 steals per game. If he is unable to suit up against the Cougars, Bensley Joseph will likely slide into the starting lineup, taking away from the Hurricane's bench scoring. 

Prediction: It's hard to pick against Houston right now. The Cougars are the only team in the region to not have really been tested so far, so their matchup with Miami should indicate if they are truly ready to bring home their first National Title in school history. The Cougars are seven-point favorites on Caesars Sportsbook, and I actually expect them to cover. Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead's injury concerns have subsided, giving the team no excuses. Miami has yet to face an elite defense yet, and I worry that its offense won't be able to sustain its effectiveness. Houston should be able to force Miami's shooters off the line and into the trees of Walker and Roberts. Although, Norchad Omier's recovery from an ankle injury and productive play gives the Hurricanes a chance. Ultimately, I expect Houston to make its second straight trip to the Elite Eight. 

SWEET 16 PICK: Houston

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 3 Xavier

Key Matchup: Dylan Disu versus Jack Nunge. The battle of the bigs could be the determining factor in which team advances to the Elite Eight. Despite averaging just 8.3 points and 4.2 rebounds coming into the tournament, Disu has come alive in March Madness. He has dropped back-to-back double-doubles, capped off by his 28 points and 10 rebounds to lead Texas over Penn State. Nunge has managed to hold down the interior with fellow big man Zach Freemantle (foot) out since February. Nunge has scored at least 10 points and blocked two shots in each of his tournament outings so far. Xavier will have the height advantage, with Nunge standing at 7-foot and Disu 6-foot-9. 

Xavier will Win IF: It turns the game into a shootout. Xavier is fourth in the country in three-point percentage at 38.9 for the season. Souley Boum, Jack Nunge, Adam Kunkel and Colby Jones are all above-average to elite shooters at their position. Their volume and efficiency make it nearly impossible for most teams to out-gun them from distance. If the Musketeers can turn the game into an up-and-down, high-scoring affair, their high-paced offense revolving around the perimeter should give them the advantage. 

Texas will Win IF: It can attack the paint. Zach Freemantle's foot injury leaves Xavier with only one true big man in Jack Nunge. If the Longhorns can get inside and force him into foul trouble, Dylan Disu will be set up to have another monstrous performance. Tyrese Hunter and Marcus Carr are more than capable of collapsing Xavier's mediocre defense and forcing tough closeouts. Texas would also be able to get easy points at the foul line and set up its elite half-court defense.

Player to Watch: Colby Jones, G, Xavier. Both teams have a balanced scoring attack, so it can be difficult to single out a standout. However, Colby Jones is arguably the best all-around player on either team. Coming into the tournament, he averaged 15.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.4 steals on 51.9 field-goal percentage and 38.2 three-point percentage. Jones can find his own shot efficiently from anywhere on the floor, create for others, crash the glass and play lockdown perimeter defense. He is coming off one of his best all-around games of the season, posting 10 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists and a block in Saturday's win over Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Xavier has proven that its offense can win any game, but I think Texas' play on both ends will allow the Longhorns to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight. Despite heavily relying on their perimeter shooting, the Musketeers have converted on just 16.7 and 33.3 percent of their long-range tries in their two tournament outings. Meanwhile, Texas is ranked 10th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and has only allowed its opponents to shoot 32.8 percent from deep all year. Texas also should have the bench advantage, as Sir'Jabari Rice's 12.9 points average is far better than any reserve player Xavier has. The Longhorns are 3.5-point favorites on Caesars Sportsbook, and I think Dylan Disu's recent run of good form should be enough for Texas to edge out a tight victory against one of the other top teams in the Midwest region.

SWEET 16 PICK: Texas