This article is part of our College Hoops Barometer series.
Welcome to the Bubble Barometer. As we do every year here at Rotowire, during Championship Week we take a look at those teams on the bubble in terms of punching a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Which teams have helped their cause of late? Which teams have more work to do? Which schools are on the outside looking in? Since the bubble can change on a daily, and even hourly basis, consider this is a fluid, ever-evolving look at those squads battling for a berth in the Big Dance.
One small note; the selection committee is using slightly different criteria this year in terms of valuing and evaluating wins. This year, a top 30 win at home, top 50 win at a neutral site and a top 75 victory on the road all count as "Quadrant I" victories. In the past, the committee put all top 50 wins, no matter where the game was played, in that category. While the goal of this article is not to get hyper-technical, we may throw in a few "Quadrant I" references here or there. Don't get scared; embrace the change.
Here's what the bubble looks like as we head into the meat of Championship Week.
Note: All records are against D1 teams only, and RPI/BPI/SOS data is as of Wednesday, 3/7.
UPGRADE
Baylor Bears (17-13)RPI: 59
BPI: 35
SOS: 12
The Bears have been maddeningly inconsistent this season, yet have a virtually identical resume to fellow Big 12 school Texas (more on
Welcome to the Bubble Barometer. As we do every year here at Rotowire, during Championship Week we take a look at those teams on the bubble in terms of punching a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Which teams have helped their cause of late? Which teams have more work to do? Which schools are on the outside looking in? Since the bubble can change on a daily, and even hourly basis, consider this is a fluid, ever-evolving look at those squads battling for a berth in the Big Dance.
One small note; the selection committee is using slightly different criteria this year in terms of valuing and evaluating wins. This year, a top 30 win at home, top 50 win at a neutral site and a top 75 victory on the road all count as "Quadrant I" victories. In the past, the committee put all top 50 wins, no matter where the game was played, in that category. While the goal of this article is not to get hyper-technical, we may throw in a few "Quadrant I" references here or there. Don't get scared; embrace the change.
Here's what the bubble looks like as we head into the meat of Championship Week.
Note: All records are against D1 teams only, and RPI/BPI/SOS data is as of Wednesday, 3/7.
UPGRADE
Baylor Bears (17-13)RPI: 59
BPI: 35
SOS: 12
The Bears have been maddeningly inconsistent this season, yet have a virtually identical resume to fellow Big 12 school Texas (more on Matthew McConaughey's alma mater below). The Bears are also 18-13, with an 8-10 record in their extremely competitive conference. Baylor beat ranked squads in the form of Texas Tech and Kansas, as well as Texas (twice). More on the Longhorns below. The Bears did lose three of their last four games of the regular season, though, and also have a bad loss to the bottom feeder of the Big 12 this season, Iowa State. Still, the big wins, including a non-conference triumph over Creighton, are likely enough to also allow Baylor to go dancing.
UCLA Bruins (20-10)RPI: 39
BPI: 56
SOS: 59
The Pac-12 had an atrocious year, and that isn't even taking into account LiAngelo Ball's short stint on the UCLA roster. The Bruins tied for third in the conference at 11-7, but the league could get as few as TWO schools into the Big Dance (Arizona and Arizona State). UCLA beat USC twice (more on the Trojans below) and defeated Kentucky at home earlier in the year. The biggest win of the season for the Bruins will be the road victory at Arizona. The presence of that win alone may have been enough to push the Bruins over the top. Even though there are no guarantees, the Bruins do appear to be in a better spot than their counterparts at Southern Cal.
Texas Longhorns (18-13)RPI: 49
BPI: 40
SOS: 17
The Longhorns may have proven their worth in their regular season finale against West Virginia. Playing without the services of arguably their best player, future NBA lottery pick Mohamed Bamba, Texas dispatched of the Mountaineers despite playing a thin, seven-man rotation. Bamba is certainly expected back if the Longhorns make the NCAA Tournament, which should only aid their resume. The Big 12 was ultra-competitive this season, as nine of the 10 teams could make the final bracket. As a result, the 8-10 conference record for the Longhorns is not a deal-breaker. Texas also did not have any bad losses, while the Longhorns did beat Butler, fellow bubble team Alabama, and Oklahoma (twice). If we're taking the best 68 teams in the country, Texas should probably be included in that group.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (18-13) RPI: 87
BPI: 58
SOS: 68
If Oklahoma State makes the Big Dance, they will likely be the ninth team from the Big 12 to be included. The Pokes have four wins over teams ranked in the top 10 during the regular season, including two wins versus Kansas. The lack of any blockbuster wins outside of the Big 12 may hurt the Cowboys, though, as Oklahoma State's biggest victory came at home against Florida State. A crucial battle with Trae Young and Oklahoma looms Wednesday in the Big 12 Tournament. A win would make a strong case for the Cowboys in a hyper-competitive conference; a loss would leave their conference record at 8-11. It could be do-or-die for the Cowboys.
CHECK STATUS
USC Trojans (21-10)RPI: 35
BPI: 49
SOS: 51
Remember those "Quadrant I" wins we talked about earlier? The Trojans only have four. The same as Baylor and Marquette, and one less than above-referenced Oklahoma State. When analyzing USC's resume in even more detail, though, it looks less impressive. They lost to UCLA twice as mentioned above, and also failed to beat Arizona and Arizona State, the other two likely locks from the Pac-12 conference. There are also a few bad losses for the Trojans, including to Princeton (the Tigers did not win the Ivy League) and Washington. In addition, there are no exceptional non-conference wins, at least in my opinion. The Trojans received a bye in the Pac-12 tourney, which may have actually hurt their chances for another win to add to their resume. The overall win-loss record (21-10, 12-6 in conference) looks like a tourney squad, but the analysis shows there is much left to be desired.
Alabama Crimson Tide (17-14)RPI: 57
BPI: 53
SOS: 9
The Crimson Tide's tournament hopes may be slip- sliding away. Alabama has lost five games in a row heading into the SEC Tournament. Though those losses did occur to teams all near the top of the SEC standings, it nevertheless dropped 'Bama's conference record to 8-10, and just 17-14 on the year. Alabama also got crushed by fellow bubble team Texas, which does not help in head-to-head comparisons. On the plus side, Alabama did beat Auburn, Florida and Tennessee, the eventual top three teams in the conference. However, a loss to Texas A&M on Thursday may doom the Tide, who have not won a game since Valentine's Day.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (17-13)RPI: 65
BPI: 34
SOS: 43
The case of a squad losing a star player during the season and gaining him back for the stretch run always creates a conundrum when a team is on the bubble. The Irish had a rash of injuries this season, but the loss of forward Bonzie Colson was the most devastating. The Irish went 6-9 without Colson, but are 13-4 with the star forward in the lineup, including Tuesday's win over Pittsburgh in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Notre Dame does have an impressive non-conference win over Wichita State, but that occurred before Thanksgiving. Even a win over Virginia Tech on Wednesday may not do much to move the needle for the Irish. Notre Dame may need an appearance in the ACC Semis at the very least in order to prove that Colson makes them a squad to be reckoned with right now.
Syracuse Orange (19-12)RPI: 37
BPI: 50
SOS: 11
The Orange were one of the more frustrating teams this season. On the downside, 'Cuse suffered several bad losses, including conference defeats to Boston College, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. None of those teams will even sniff the NCAA Tournament. Injuries and transfers shortened coach Jim Boeheim's bench significantly. In addition, the Orange do not have a big win in the non-conference schedule to hang their hat on. However, 'Cuse did pull off a few victories over better squads, including road wins at Miami and Louisville, and a triumph at home over Clemson in the regular season finale. The Orange will likely need at least two more wins in the ACC Tournament to make their case firm; they'll play North Carolina on Wednesday, and a win would be massive for their tourney hopes.
DOWNGRADE
Louisville Cardinals (19-12)RPI: 46
BPI: 33
SOS: 23
In hindsight, perhaps it is miraculous that the Cardinals are even in contention for the tourney. Marred by scandal and losing one of the top coaches in arguably the history of the sport, the school is eligible for the NCAA Tournament and even has a decent case. The heartbreaking loss to Virginia last week, in which the Cardinals somehow blew a four-point lead in the final second of the game, may tilt the scale against Louisville as for right now. That win over the top team in the country would have been a monstrous boost, obviously. While it did prove that Louisville can play with anybody on a given night, blowout losses to Duke and North Carolina may say otherwise. The more I look at Louisville's resume, the more I feel as though they need to make a run in the ACC Tournament. The Cardinals have two wins over Virginia Tech and not much else noteworthy en route to a 9-9 conference record and 19-12 record overall.
Marquette Golden Eagles (18-12)RPI: 56
BPI: 45
SOS: 30
The Golden Eagles look like another squad with work to do, as Marquette sits at 18-12 overall and 9-9 in the Big East. Marquette was not able to dispatch the Goliaths of Villanova or Xavier this season, though they did sweep the season series from both Seton Hall and Creighton. An ugly loss to DePaul late in the season nearly sank their chances, but a rematch Wednesday gives the Golden Eagles a chance at redemption. Still, they'll likely need to beat Villanova as well on Thursday to feel comfortable about securing a slot on Selection Sunday.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (22-10)RPI: 63
BPI: 62
SOS: 122
In order to evaluate Nebraska's season, we have to delve deeper than simply wins and losses. That's because a 13-5 record in the Big Ten usually is enough by itself to warrant a school's inclusion in the final field. However, the 'Huskers have only beaten one team that is firmly in the tourney. Though that was a 20-point win over Big Ten Tournament Champion Michigan back in the middle of January, the 'Huskers were trounced by the Wolverines in a rematch in the Big Ten tourney just last week. Nebraska did not challenge itself in the non-conference portion of their schedule, and the Cornhuskers have bad losses to UCF and Illinois. At 22-10 overall, the 'Huskers needed a couple of big wins last week at Madison Square Garden to elevate their resume. Instead, they're likely headed to the NIT.
Penn State Nittany Lions (21-13)RPI: 80
BPI: 27
SOS: 76
Another Big Ten school, Penn State is likely in the same boat as Nebraska, though the Nittany Lions did have some big wins this season. In fact, Penn State beat Ohio State three times; the Buckeyes only lost one other game to a conference opponent this year. However, the Nittany Lions also did not have much of a non-conference slate to speak of, and finished the season just 9-9 in conference play, including four losses to teams with .500 or worse records in the Big Ten. Penn State may be closer to the bubble than Nebraska, but a down year for the conference will not help the cause for either squad when all is said and done.
