This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
College Basketball Betting Futures: Mid-Major Conference Tournament Picks
It's the most wonderful time of the year, if you're a fan of college hoops. It's March, and the conference tournaments are about to tip off. We have our first batch of conference tournament preview winners, including the ASUN Conference, Horizon League Conference, Patriot League and Sun Belt Conference tournament winners.
In the ASUN Conference, Lipscomb and North Alabama each posted 14-4 league records to share the regular-season title. The Bisons won a share of the league title for the first since 2019, and the Lions won for the first time ever. Based on tiebreakers, Lipscomb is the No. 1 seed, and UNA is the No. 2 seed.
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ASUN Conference Tournament Odds
- Lipscomb -150
- North Alabama +250
- Florida Gulf Coast +1000
- Jacksonville +1400
- Eastern Kentucky +1800
- Queens +2500
- North Florida +10000
- Central Arkansas +20000
- Austin Peay +20000
- Stetson +20000
Lipscomb is considered the favorite, but again, it lost for times in conference play, so it is certainly beatable. In fact, No. 5 seed Eastern Kentucky swept the regular-season series against the Bisons. It also lost once to No. 6 seed Queens and to UNA. F Jacob Ognacevic is a beast, going for 20.3 PPG and 8.0 RPG to lead the Bisons in both categories, while hitting a solid 58.2 percent from the field. Lipscomb also has a Quad 2 win over Chattanooga this season, and it topped Belmont and Duquesne in non-conference Q3 games.
All four of UNA's conference losses were on the road this season, falling to No. 3 seed FGCU, No. 4 seed Jacksonville, Lipscomb and Queens. The Lions had five players record double-digit averages in points, with G Jacari Lane leading the way with 16.9 PPG. UNA was smoked by Auburn in its only Q1 game, and it lost to Lipscomb in a Q2. It's best wins are against East Carolina and Lipscomb in Q3 affairs.
FGCU rose to No. 3 seed status, and its best victory was in a Q2 game at FAU, although it was just 3-10 in games featuring teams from Q1, Q2 or Q3.
Eastern Kentucky is a dark-horse pick. It swept the season series from top-seed Lipscomb, and while it struggles defensively, F Montavious Myrick is solid in the rebounding (8.0 RPG) and blocking (1.1 BPG) departments, something the Colonels always seem to have. G George Kimble III is underrated, too, going for 18.0 PG, 3.7 RPG, 3.2 APG and 2.6 SPG, contributing a little bit of everything. EKU has a pair of Q2 wins over East Tennessee State and Lipscomb.
And if you're REALLY, REALLY adventurous, North Florida did score a pair of Q2 road wins at Georgia Tech and South Carolina earlier in the season, but the Ospreys were a disaster down the stretch. Still, this team proved it can be a giant slayer.
- Pick to win ASUN Tournament: Lipscomb -150
- Best ASUN value pick: Eastern Kentucky +1800
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Horizon League Tournament Odds
- Milwaukee +250
- Robert Morris +275
- Cleveland State +320
- Purdue Fort Wayne +650
- Youngstown State +950
- Oakland +1500
- Wright State +2200
- North Kentucky +4500
- Green Bay +25000
- Detroit +25000
- IU Indy +25000
The Horizon League appears to be wide open, but really, there are three main contenders. For a while, it appeared Cleveland State was going to run away with the regular-season title, but it stumbled hard down the stretch with losses in five of the final eight games.
Milwaukee is actually the No. 3 seed, but it enters the tourney with the shortest odds. That's because the Panthers won five of the final six games, with only a lone loss at Robert Morris, the No. 1 seed. The Panthers notched a Q2 win against Akron on a neutral court, for its most quality victory of the season, while also topping Duquesne for its most impressive of six Q3 victories. F Jamichael Stillwell is a beast in the frontcourt, and he averaged a double-double with 12.9 PPG and 10.8 RPG.
The Colonials were red-hot down the stretch, winning seven straight games, and they were a bettor's favorite against the number, too, going 23-6 against the spread (ATS) this season. F Alvaro Folgueiras posted 14.3 PPG with 9.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.5 APG and 1.1 BPG to have a hand in everything. RMU's win over Milwaukee on the road was a Q2 win, and it also posted an 8-3 record in Q3 games. It did have four ugly Q4 losses, including a stunner against Detroit Mercy, one of the worst teams in the league, so they're not a lead-pipe lock to win it all.
Oakland is always dangerous at this time of year, but it showed very little competitiveness in games against the big boys, going 0-7 in Q1 and Q2 games, while posting a 4-7 mark in Q3 outings. Meanwhile, Youngstown State might be the biggest sleeper, having topped Cleveland State and Robert Morris, both on the road.
- Pick to win Horizon Tournament: Robert Morris +275
- Best Horizon value pick: Youngstown State +950
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Patriot League Tournament Odds
- Bucknell +170
- Colgate +250
- American +260
- Navy +1600
- Boston U +1700
- Army +3000
- Lehigh +3500
- Lafayette +4000
- Loyola (MD) +6000
- Holy Cross +25000
The Patriot League is also very wide open, and each of the top teams have their flaws. American and Bucknell each recorded 13-5 conference records.
The Bison finished up strong with six consecutive wins and covers to close out the schedule. Bucknell was 0-4 in Q1 games, and 0-3 in Q3 outings, with no Q2 games. Its best win of the season might be against American or Colgate at home, which isn't saying much. C Noah Williamson is a frontcourt disrupter, going for 17.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 1.0 BPG, while hitting 53.2 percent from the field.
The Raiders were 10-8 in the league, and it had three losses in the final five games, tailing off at the end. Colgate does have a Q2 win against UNC Wilmington, but it was 0-9 in Q3 games, and it had bad losses to Harvard and Loyola (MD).
American gave Virginia a scare earlier in the season, and had a nice Q3 win over George Washington. The Eagles are pretty competitive, but it was swept by Navy, so it needs to steer clear of the Middies. F Matt Rogers is the star, going for a team-best 17.2 PPG and 5.6 RPG, while also stepping out to hit 40.9 percent from behind the 3-point line.
If there is a team to rise from the lower seeds to make noise, it's Navy. Again, it swept American, while playing Elon, St. Joe's and Virginia Tech tough in non-conference tilts.
- Pick to win Patriot Tournament: Bucknell +170
- Best Patriot value pick: Navy +1600
Sun Belt Tournament Odds
- Arkansas State +200
- South Alabama +275
- James Madison +300
- Troy +400
- Appalachian State +2000
- Marshall +2500
- Texas State +2500
- Georgia State +20000
- Georgia Southern +20000
- Louisiana +20000
- Old Dominion +25000
- Southern Miss +25000
- Coastal Carolina +25000
- UL Monroe +30000
The Sun Belt is basically a four-team race, as it is extremely unlikely any of the mid-tier or lower-tier teams are going to ruin things. Of course, that's why the games are played, and we've seen stranger things happen in college hoops before.
Ark State, USA, JMU and Troy were each 13-5 in the regular season, creating a logjam at the top of the Sun Belt standings. If there is going to be a disrupter, it is Marshall, as the Thundering Herd won four in a row to close out the season, the longest current win streak.
Ark State might have the most impressive resume, scoring a Q1 win at Memphis earlier this season, and it did so in impressive fashion, 85-72. It also scored Q2 victories over Troy and UAB, while grabbing a win over Akron, too, another potential NCAA Tournament team. The Red Wolves stumbled down the stretch, losing four of the final six games to fritter away an outright regular-season title. Guard Taryn Todd led the team with 15.0 PPG, while G Joseph Pinion had 12.3 PPG, and he is the man to look to for late free throws, as he hit 89.1 percent from the charity stripe. F Izaiyah Nelson led the team with 8.6 RPG and 1.3 BPG.
South Alabama had a Q2 win over the Red Wolves, while also recording a nice Q3 win over Nicholls, a solid Southland Conference team. The Jaguars won four of the final five games, and it went to overtime on four occasions in eight February games, winning three of those outings. They certainly got ready for the madness early.
JMU had won five in a row before an OT loss at Texas State in the regular-season finale took away any hope of an outright regular-season title. The Dukes aren't a great rebounding team, and they're so-so overall defensively.
Troy won four of the final five games, including a road win at Ark State on Feb. 15. This is a disciplined, solid defensive team, which allowed just 65.6 PPG to rank 29th in the nation, while limiting teams to 41.2 percent from the field. G Tayton Conerway is the best scoring option at 13.8 PPG, while adding 5.0 APG and 4.6 RPG with 3.0 SPG, showing very quick hands. The Trojans rebound the ball well, too.
If you're looking for a sleeper, Marshall beat both Ark State and JMU, while notching solid non-conference wins over Ohio and Morehead State. The Thundering Herd is a terrible 3-point shooting team, though, and it isn't very good at the free-throw line, either, so it needs to overproduce big time, if it is going to pull off multiple stunners.
- Pick to win Sun Belt Tournament: Troy +400
- Best Sun Belt value pick: Marshall +2500
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