This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for the NCAA Tournament Opening Round
The Big Dance has officially arrived. Here are my best bets for Thursday's Round of 64 slate. Coincidentally, all three games that I'm spotlighting are tipping off from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
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VCU 
vs. BYU 
BYU had won nine straight games (including 13 of 15) before losing to Houston in the Big 12 tournament. The Cougars' success is fueled by a high-octane offensive attack, which had the 11th-highest adjusted efficiency rating among all D-1 teams. This is no accident, as they have a surplus of talent, prominently led by five-star freshman Egor Demin, who's currently projected to be a potential lottery pick in the NBA draft. BYU looked terrible in its recent game against Houston, but it has otherwise not had issues against elite defensive teams. The Cougars swept Iowa State, scoring 88-plus points in both games; they beat Kansas 91-57 and swept West Virginia, all opponents with a top-15 defensive efficiency rating.
Even with these superb stats, this matchup may ultimately be won on the glass, where the Cougars have the 77th-highest offensive-rebounding percentage. VCU's defense is extremely hard to score against, boasting the best effective field goal percentage allowed in the nation. Still, it's prone to allowing second-chance opportunities and trips to the charity stripe. The Rams rank 199th in defensive rebounding percentage, noticeably below average, which gives BYU an opening to attack. They also rank 264th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, which is another stat that's not ideal, but BYU has a similar standing offensively, ranking 270th in free-throw attempt rate.
BYU isn't quite as strong at the other end of the court, ranking 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but it still has one outstanding skill that will be key in this matchup. The Cougars had the 28th-highest defensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams, which is critical because VCU's best offensive ability is on the glass, as it recorded the 12th-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. These second-chance opportunities are essential for the Rams, who rank close to average or below average in several areas. They rank 45th in adjusted offensive efficiency, a decent standing, but they rank 158th in offensive turnovers, 199th in free-throw attempt rate, and 191st in three-point field goal percentage, having made almost 34 percent during the regular season. Overall, VCU has the edge on this side of the court based on the efficiency ratings, but BYU's defensive rebounding abilities may prevent VCU from seeing its usual success.
This game may resemble a three-point shooting contest at various points, as both teams rank in the top 30 in three-point attempt rate. Additionally, the Rams made almost 34 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, while BYU made 37 percent, the 33rd-highest mark in the nation.
VCU has had an incredible season and shouldn't be taken lightly, although BYU's offense has shown that it can beat just about any elite defense outside of Houston. For these reasons, I'm going with the Cougars in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU -2.5
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Yale 
vs. Texas A&M
The Bulldogs made a lot of noise a year ago when they upset Auburn in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Despite losing a couple of key members of last year's squad (i.e., Danny Wolf), Yale returned to form and recorded a better season and numbers than last year. The key is that point guard Bez Mbeng and forward John Poulakidas returned for their senior seasons, in addition to other returning players successfully developing into more prominent roles.
The rationale for this pick centers around Yale's defensive rebounding abilities and how it can likely counter Texas A&M's offense. The Aggies are notoriously terrible with their shooting numbers. They barely made 48 percent of two-point attempts (292nd) and 31 percent of three-point attempts (317th), yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 317th among all D-1 teams. Their saving grace, both this season and last, has been their second-to-none skills on the glass. Texas A&M led the nation in offensive rebounding percentage this year and last year, giving them many second-chance opportunities to make up for the shooting issues. Additionally, they also take many trips to the charity stripe, the 17th-highest rate in the nation. These two strengths pose problems for many teams, though, on paper, Yale appears built to perfectly counter Texas A&M. The Bulldogs rank 95th in average height, per KenPom, surprisingly taller than Texas A&M, which ranks 136th. More importantly, Yale posted the 22nd-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the nation and ranked 71st in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Naturally, Texas A&M still has a slight edge, but the Aggies would undoubtedly prefer to play a team that doesn't secure the defensive glass. It's also worth noting that Texas A&M has the worst offensive block percentage among all D-1 teams, while Yale's defense ranks 62nd in the same category, giving the underdogs a clear advantage over Texas A&M's offense.
The Aggies are far more fundamentally sound when playing in the other direction, where they recorded the seventh-best adjusted defensive efficiency rating in the nation. They rank in the top 80 in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, and rebounding. These are excellent numbers, but as it turns out, Yale is just as good on the offensive side of the same categories, where it can make the same top-80 claim. The Bulldogs rank 58th in adjusted offensive efficiency, so they're highly proficient and improved from last year. For context, last year's team that upset Auburn ranked 91st in offensive efficiency. Another strength for Yale is its outstanding accuracy from long range. The Bulldogs made almost 39 percent of shots from beyond the arc for the whole season, the ninth-highest mark among all D-1 teams. They don't chuck them up at a high rate, but that's okay because they have three different starters who made at least 37 percent on at least 50 attempts throughout the season. They can make the shots when they're open and when they need them.
It's hard to expect Yale to pull off another high-profile upset of an SEC team in the Round of 64 in consecutive years, but then again, crazier things have happened. Either way, I'm betting the Bulldogs will keep the game close throughout, thanks to their defensive rebounding and offensive skillset. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Yale +7.5
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UC San Diego 
vs. Michigan 
The Tritons enter the Big Dance sporting the nation's longest active win streak, having won their last 15 games. The Wolverines, meanwhile, recently won three straight to win the Big Ten tournament after ending the season on a three-game skid. It would be easy to disregard UC San Diego as any other mid-major team with a pile of wins, but this team does a few things exceptionally well that I believe will help them pull the upset.
Perhaps most notably, the Tritons reached this point in part thanks to a stingy and aggressive defense. They ranked 32nd in adjusted efficiency and posted elite numbers in a couple of critical areas. They recorded the second-highest turnover and fourth-highest steal percentages among all D1 teams, and they also held opponents to 46 percent on two-point attempts, the 19th-best allowed. These are precisely the kinds of traits that a team needs to hold down Michigan.
The Wolverines' offense ranked 47th in adjusted efficiency for the whole season and fifth-worst during the Big Ten conference season. Still, they would likely have a better offensive rating without their severe turnover issues. Michigan ranks near the very bottom of D-1 in turnover percentage (328th) and 349th in non-steal turnovers, suggesting that it suffers from unforced errors to a significant extent. The Wolverines' offense is also limited by its inconsistent three-point shooting. They made 33 percent for the whole season, 195th in the nation, although their numbers have taken a dive over the past couple of months, making under 31 percent against Big Ten opponents, the second-worst percentage in the league. Nonetheless, Michigan still had a productive offense for much of the season, thanks to its other skills. The Wolverines made almost 58 percent of two-point attempts, the 12th-highest mark in the nation, and they ranked 81st in offensive rebounding percentage. Interestingly enough, UC San Diego has had a strong interior defense, as mentioned above, and it also ranks 102nd in defensive rebounding, coming close to matching Michigan in both categories.
At the other end of the court, UC San Diego has also seen offensive success throughout the season, entering the tournament with the 60th-highest efficiency rating. The Tritons are great at scoring inside when the opportunity presents itself, knocking down 56 percent of shots inside the arc, the 31st-highest mark. That said, UC San Diego focuses on its perimeter attack more than most other teams. The Tritons attempt three-pointers at the eighth-highest rate in the nation while knocking down 37 percent, the 57th-best mark. When we add it all up, they ultimately scored 40 percent of their total points from beyond the arc, the 14th-highest highest percentage in all of D-1. Their offense is further bolstered by getting a shot off on most possessions, as they logged the seventh-best turnover percentage in the nation.
Michigan is undoubtedly excellent on defense, ranking 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, its one weakness is that it doesn't often force turnovers. For the whole season, the Wolverines ranked 265th in turnover and 325th in steal percentages. This pattern continued through the conference season when they ranked second-worst in both turnover and steal percentages.
After breaking everything down, this appears to be a brutal draw for the Big Ten tournament champions. UC San Diego is a particularly feisty 12-seed and is one of the best teams in the nation at causing turnovers, which is the area where Michigan is the weakest. Also, the Tritons' long-range attack has proven to be a consistent source of points. There's a chance that their shots don't fall on Thursday, but I'm betting their tenacious defense will keep them in the game. I'm taking the points with the Tritons.
College Basketball Best Bet: UC San Diego +2.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- BYU -2.5
- Yale +7.5
- UC San Diego +2.5
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