This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Boston Celtics moneyline (-135) at Miami Heat
PointsBet, 12:05 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This is about as chalky as it gets for a playoff game, with 71% of the money (on FanDuel, where public betting stats are easily accessible) landing on the Celtics' -2.5-point spread. In general, you'll probably be better off trying to align with the sportsbooks, but I think this spread is impossible to set correctly. The blowouts continue to rack up, and there have been just four lead changes in this entire series. Plus, both teams have dealt with injuries, complicating how to set a line early in the day.
Ultimately, however, I'm much more worried about Miami's injuries compared to Boston's. Yes, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are less than 100%, but that's not nearly as impactful as Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro dealing with injuries. Butler's knee pain has been an issue all year, and he took extended chunks off during the regular season to deal with it -- now he's being asked to play every other day. Herro's injury is allegedly a 2-4 week injury that he's trying to come back from in mere days. And that's not even mentioning Kyle Lowry's ineffectiveness and PJ Tucker being banged up, too. The Heat proved all season that they can fight through injuries, and being at home will help them, but I think the injuries are too dramatic given the situation.
Al Horford 10+ points, 10+ rebounds, 3+ assists and 2+ blocks parlay (+750)
DraftKings, 12:09 PM CT
Alex Barutha: This is one of those fun "let's turn $10 into $75" bets that I think is well within reach. Since the start of Round 2, Horford has averaged 12.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.0 blocks, and he's averaging 11.7 / 10.0 / 3.0 / 2.7 in this series. The safer bet is the combined points + rebounds + assists (22.5) bet, but the odds (-110) aren't nearly as enticing.
Boston Celtics-Miami Heat O204.0 points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook, 11:45 AM CT
Nick Whalen: I know these two teams combined for just 184 points in Game 4, but this low total for Game 5 feels like a bit of an overcorrection. Games 1, 2 and 3 all went over 204.0 with ease, and chances are Miami isn't going to start tonight's game 0-of-14 from the field and score 11 points in the first quarter. Injuries on the Heat side do give me some concern about their offensive firepower, but Miami has scored at least 102 points in all but one of its home postseason games. Meanwhile, Boston likely won't get to the line 38 times, as it did in Game 4, but the Celtics should also shoot the ball better after hitting just 39.7% of their field goals and going 8-of-34 from deep in Game 4.
Boston Celtics to win at Miami Heat (-130)
PointsBet, 1:15 ET
Ken Crites: I'm making this suggestion early in the day assuming Robert Time Lord Williams will be able to play 20-plus minutes. Williams makes the Boston defense exponentially better. Bam Adebayo, as well as Miami's cutters, clearly struggled inside when Williams was protecting the basket. Time Lord's presence also allows Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to play more pressure defense, knowing Williams has their back. Plus, Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler just don't look healthy. Expect more solid defense from Derrick White and Al Horford to result in a Celtics win.
Max Strus O2.5 three-pointers made (-135) vs. Celtics
DraftKings, 1:20 PM CT
Charlie Dern: Strus was one of the many Heat players who struggled from the field in the Game 4 loss. I expect Strus to bounce back in a critical Game 5, hitting at least three threes -- a number he has reached ten times during this year's playoffs. Strus is clearly the Heat's best option from deep, having made 42 three-pointers -- 19 more than Gabe Vincent, who ranks second among Heat players in three-point scoring. This series has seven games written all over it. I'm expecting Strus and the Heat to defend home court Wednesday.
