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Best NBA Bets Today
Tyler Herro over 27.5 points + assists at Detroit
FanDuel, 4:01 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Jimmy Butler is set to miss a second straight game, though he only saw seven minutes during the game where he suffered the injury. Herro stepped up in those two contests, averaging 25 points and 7 assists in 37 minutes in road games against the Nuggets and Timberwolves. Today's matchup is still on the road, but it's much softer. If Herro can pop off against those Western Conference squads, I think can continue here against the Pistons.
John Collins over 15.5 points vs. Suns
DraftKings Pick6, 4:18 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Some books have this line as high as 17.5 points, so that helps me feel good about this one just as a pure value play. The reasoning, though, is that Walker Kessler is missing his first game of the season. With Kessler (and Taylor Hendricks) off the floor this season, Collins has seen the most total minutes (149) and is scoring 9.7 more points per 36 minutes, up to 26.6 points. I don't expect him to play 36 minutes, but I'm going to bank on the usage boost sticking.
Knicks ML at 76ers
Nick Whalen: Joel Embiid is set to make his season debut for Philly, but it's fair to wonder how he'll look after a long layoff and continued concerns with his knee. The Sixers are also without Tyrese Maxey and could have trouble keeping up with the NBA's No. 2 offense. On paper, the Knicks don't have a ton of options to throw at Embiid, but this is more so a fade of his conditioning and workload in his first game back.
Raptors-Bucks U226.0
Nick Whalen: Milwaukee is 7-3 to the under so far this season and will not have the services of Damian Lillard, who landed in concussion protocol. That's a significant hit to the the Bucks' offense, but it could also be a boost to their defense, which has struggled so far this season. Meanwhile, the Raptors are still without their best player in Scottie Barnes and could be missing Immanuel Quickley tonight, as well. Toronto's league-worst defense is a concern, but without Lillard I don't see this as a spot where Milwaukee is necessarily piling up points.
Timberwolves -8.5 at Trail Blazers
Nick Whalen: This is a big number, but the Wolves are heavy favorites for a reason over a Blazers team that ranks 28th in NET rating, 28th in offense and 30th in TrueShooting. Portland has played a handful of close games this season, but for the most part they've been dominated by superior opponents. Over the last three games, the Blazers have been outscored by an average of 27.6 points per game.
I'm taking the OVER on Derrick White grabbing 4.5 rebounds
FanDuel, -118, 3:25pm EST
Ken Crites: Jayson Tatum and Al Horford are both game time decisions tonight versus the Hawks. That means D White needs to help on the boards. And the versatile guard has been on a bit of a rebounding heater lately, with six or more rebounds in four of his last five games. The Hawks are a poor rebounding squad. They rank 20th with 42.5 rebounds per contest through 10 games. But the Hawks also play fast, ranking fourth in possessions per game. That combo means lots of rebounds are available. The K-Train is a modest 2-2 on the year, so feel free to fade!
WARNING: As of 5:30pm EST, both Tatum and Horford are now expected to play.
