This article is part of our NBA Draft series.
Sports sell hope. Fans are taught to think this could be our year, our game, our moment. This feeling seems to buoy events like the draft in which seemingly every prospect will fulfill his complete potential and help his team win a championship. That's what we're being sold, right? However, all you have to do is look at past drafts to see that this does not hold up to any scrutiny. Someone has to bring the bad news that not every prospect is going to work out. That someone is me.
This may also make me an odd person to write a mock draft. Yet, I watch enough college basketball to have an informed opinion on all of these players, so let's go through the 14 lottery picks. These picks are who I would take with the pick. I will also include a new feature – bust potential: a percentage estimate on the probability of that player never making an impact.
1. 
Minnesota Timberwolves
Karl-Anthony Towns, forward, Kentucky Wildcats
Teams should never draft on fit, particularly with the first pick. However, when there are two approximately equivalent options, fit may play a part. The Timberwolves have the oft-injured Nikola Pekovic for a few more seasons, and Towns may be a better player than Jahlil Okafor in any case. It's a little worrisome that the 6-11 one-and-done Wildcat only played 21.1 minutes last season with John Calipari using an extended rotation. Towns' per-minute numbers were outstanding, but he was also in foul trouble often (particularly in the tournament). The two-way potential is there for him to be a star player, so Towns should join Andrew Wiggins with the Timberwolves.
Bust potential: 15%
2. 
Los Angeles Lakers
Jahlil Okafor, center, Duke Blue Devils
Okafor is the safest pick in the draft. He has beautiful post skills and was able to dominate smaller players regularly in college. The red flags are clear with the seven-footer. He is not an aggressive rebounder, and he may never be better than an average defender. Like all of these players, he is very young, so he could develop all-around skills to go with his ability to maneuver in the post.
Bust potential: 10%
3. 
Philadelphia 76ers
Justise Winslow, forward, Duke Blue Devils
I was kind of hoping the 76ers would be in a position to draft Okafor: Triple Towers! The nice thing about Philadelphia is that we don't have to worry about fit. Other than Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid, the roster is bereft of talent. I thought Winslow was the key to the Blue Devils' success on defense, but he also wasn't too shabby on offense, hitting 41.8 percent of his three-pointers. At 6-7, he might be considered undersized, but Winslow has plus athleticism to play bigger than his height. Philadelphia may make the playoffs by 2025 yet!
Bust potential: 15%
4. 
New York Knicks
Emmanuel Mudiay, guard, China
The Knicks' two best assets are ageing and creaky: Carmelo Anthony and general manager Phil Jackson. It's time to swing for the fences with the SMU recruit. Mudiay did not have the grades to play college ball after spending time at Deion Sanders' high school in Dallas. That was a shame because it would have been interesting to see what coach Larry Brown could do with the 6-5 guard. Mudiay should be able to attack the basket and is big enough to be a defensive presence on the perimeter.
Bust potential: 25%
5. 
Orlando Magic
D'Angelo Russell, guard, Ohio State Buckeyes
After spending their last two first-round picks on guards with shaky (at best) offensive games, the Magic will select the smoothest offensive player in the draft. Russell reminds me of Tracy McGrady with the way the game appeared to be easy for him. Russell averaged 19.3 points for a team that did not have a clear second offensive option and hit 41.1 percent from long range. He has nice court vision and should combine with Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton to give the Magic an enviable three-guard depth chart.
Bust potential: 20%
6. 
Sacramento Kings
Stanley Johnson, forward, Arizona Wildcats
Any of the top five players could be stars. I don't think any of the other players will be All-Stars, but there are plenty of functional starters and role players from here on out. Johnson fit in nicely on a winning team with the Wildcats. He led the squad with 13.8 points and nailed 37.1 percent from beyond the arc. Johnson has wide shoulders and will likely be a defensive bull.
Bust potential: 25%
7. 
Denver Nuggets
Kristaps Porzingas, forward, Latvia
The Nuggets appeared to have a potential hit with Jusuf Nurkic last year, so they may try to drill into the same well with the 7-0 Porzingas. I'd be lying if I said that I had seen more than grainy video of the 19-year-old, but he put up decent numbers with Seville in both league play and the Eurocup last season despite playing against more mature opponents. Like many European players drafted over the last five years, his bust potential is pretty high.
Bust potential: 50%
8. 
Detroit Pistons
Sam Dekker, forward, Wisconsin Badgers
No player was helped by the NCAA tournament more than Dekker, who got hot from distance in the Big Dance. He led the Badgers with a career-high 27 points in their win over Arizona in the Elite Eight. Dekker may be considered a traitor by Cheese Heads for prospering with the Pistons, but he fits both the role and style coach Stan Van Gundy likes. At the very least, he should be a solid role player – a la Kyle Singler. I do think Dekker needs to learn how to dribble without carrying the ball.
Bust potential: 30%
9. 
Charlotte Hornets
Mario Hezonja, forward, Croatia
Like Porzingas, Hezonja is a player from eastern Europe who spent his internship in Spain. The 6-8 wing connected on nearly 40 percent of his three-pointers on his way to averaging 7.7 points in 16.5 minutes per game. NBA teams love upside, and the Hornets need plenty of shooting. This pick could make sense for Michael Jordan's team. Charlotte has not taken a European player since Bismack Biyombo in 2011.
Bust potential: 50%
10. 
Miami Heat
Myles Turner, forward, Texas Longhorns
I watched Texas a few times this past season and would not have known that Turner was a professional prospect. He spent the majority of the season coming off the bench. Like Kentucky players, his per-minute numbers are excellent: 10.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks in 22.2 minutes per game, but the 6-11 Turner only played 30 minutes or more in three games. There's a pretty good chance that he disappears on the Heat bench and isn't heard from again.
Bust potential: 50%
11. 
Indiana Pacers
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, forward, Arizona Wilcats
Just to show that I am not completely a negative Nelly – I do have my favorites. As I noted in the Stanley Johnson profile, I like players that fit into a winning system. Hollis-Jefferson is at least an energetic defender and a good rebounder. He is not a strong shooter (just 20.7 percent on threes), but he could easily improve that part of his game to become a solid three-and-D type player. Hollis-Jefferson is just the kind of high-floor, relatively low-ceiling player that I'd like to take in the middle of the first round.
Bust potential: 25%
12. 
Utah Jazz
Frank Kaminsky, forward, Wisconsin Badgers
The Badger center has a lot of intriguing skills. He is crafty in the post and showed off his range all season long. However, bigs from Wisconsin have not had a lot of success in the NBA (Jon Leuer…), and Kaminsky doesn't look thick enough to handle the rigors of the paint. He will also have to transition from being the man to being a rotational piece, but two years on the Badger bench may have taught him a thing or two about being a reserve.
Bust potential: 30%
13. 
Phoenix Suns
Kevon Looney, forward, UCLA Bruins
Looney has a skill: he can clean up missed shots. The 6-9 native of Milwaukee averaged 9.2 rebounds to go along with 11.6 points. While I am not sure of the statistical proof of this, I like players who can consistently rebound (which makes me worry a bit about Okafor). Looney hit better than 40 percent of his three-pointers but did not shoot in volume. He projects as a bench player/fringe starter, but teams should be happy with that at this point in the draft.
Bust potential: 50%
14. 
Oklahoma City Thunder
Willie Cauley-Stein, center, Kentucky Wildcats
You could put any number of Wildcats in this spot, and I would not argue. Trey Lyles or Devin Booker will likely be better pros than Cauley-Stein. He gets plenty of regard for being a defensive ace, but I think "Trill" was more a product of his system than an actual standout. His offense is sub-Nerlens Noel levels even after an incredible three years at Kentucky. There are plenty of people who disagree with me, but I think players have to have at least rudimentary offensive skills to prosper in the NBA. WCS doesn't have them.
Bust potential: 60%
