Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi

33-Year-Old PitcherSP
Houston Astros
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Kikuchi enjoyed a career year in 2023 and finished with a 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 181:48 K:BB over 167.2 innings. He nearly cut his walk rate in half to 6.9 percent and had a solid 25.9 percent strikeout rate. A 3.77 xFIP also indicates his results were mostly earned, though a 42.4 percent hard-hit rate and 1.45 HR/9 were both bottom-10 among qualified starters despite being significant improvements from his 2022 marks. The left-hander, who will turn 33 years old in June, continues to average about 95 mph with his fastball and still generates plenty of whiffs, but those swing-and-misses have never really translated to equitable run prevention. Kikuchi's 2023 numbers certainly weren't a fluke, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be able to replicate them. A regression in 2024 shouldn't be the expectation but certainly wouldn't be surprising given the 5.02 ERA across his first four MLB seasons after coming over from Japan. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#238
ADP
$Signed a three-year, $36 million contract with the Blue Jays in March of 2022. Traded to the Astros in July of 2024.
In line for Game 3 start
PHouston Astros
October 2, 2024
Kikuchi is slated to start Thursday in Game 3 of the American League Wild Card Series against the Tigers, assuming he's not needed in relief in Game 2 on Wednesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Kikuchi has been told to be ready in relief for Game 2 with the Astros having all hands on deck as they try to avoid elimination. If Houston wins and doesn't have to use Kikuchi on Wednesday, he'll take the ball Thursday. The left-hander was outstanding after being acquired by the Astros at the trade deadline, putting up a 2.70 ERA and 76:14 K:BB over 60 innings.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
91
Last 10 Games
97
Last 5 Games
97
How many pitches does Yusei Kikuchi generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Yusei Kikuchi generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-20%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-23%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .216 385 104 25 76 11 2 13
Since 2022vs Right .257 1505 407 125 349 60 3 62
2024vs Left .230 145 40 8 31 3 0 5
2024vs Right .248 591 166 36 136 20 1 20
2023vs Left .214 141 39 8 28 5 0 6
2023vs Right .266 559 142 40 137 22 1 21
2022vs Left .198 99 25 9 17 3 2 2
2022vs Right .256 355 99 49 76 18 1 21
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-8%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-5%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-23%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 4.08 1.16 238.1 15 14 1 10.7 2.7 1.7
Since 2022Away 4.42 1.45 205.2 11 9 0 9.9 3.5 1.4
2024Home 3.89 1.13 104.0 4 8 0 10.8 1.8 1.3
2024Away 4.27 1.30 71.2 5 2 0 10.2 2.9 1.3
2023Home 3.97 1.18 79.1 6 3 0 9.9 3.1 1.6
2023Away 3.77 1.35 88.1 5 3 0 9.6 2.1 1.3
2022Home 4.58 1.16 55.0 5 3 1 11.8 3.8 2.5
2022Away 5.91 1.91 45.2 1 4 0 10.2 6.9 1.6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Yusei Kikuchi compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.68
 
K/9
10.6
 
BB/9
2.3
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
95.6 mph
 
ERA
4.05
 
WHIP
1.20
 
BABIP
.329
 
GB/FB
1.24
 
Left On Base
71.6%
 
Exit Velocity
82.7 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.4%
 
Spin Rate
2285 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
25.8%
 
Swinging Strike
13.1%
 
Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2016
Kikuchi is at a career crossroads as his non COVID-shortened seasons look terrible by most measures. His ERA and ERA estimators have been messy in each of those seasons, and then he further compounded problems in 2022 with a noticeable spike in his walk rate with a healthy dose of homers. Just six pitchers have ever thrown at least 100 innings with walk rates of at least 12% while allowing 2 homers per nine innings as Kikuchi did and those names include Oliver Perez, Andy Benes, and Derek Holland and each of their ERAs were over a full run higher than what Kikuchi somehow pulled off last season at 5.19. The strikeout rate was am impressive as he ran away from his cutter and threw more fastballs, but only his changeup was tough to hit for the league. It is perplexing to see someone with such poor overall numbers to have four pitches with Whiff rates above 25%, but that is what Kikuchi pulled off last season. Perhaps there is a brighter future for him in relief where he can pump up the velocity in shorter stints because he has had issues sustaining that over the course of a season. Funny data point: did you know Kikuchi's four-seam fastball generated more swings and misses in 2022 than four-seamers thrown by Justin Verlander and Alek Manoah? Now you do.
Kikuchi appeared set to deliver the breakout campaign that many projected prior to the 2021 season, maintaining a 3.46 ERA with an 81:26 K:BB across his first 80.2 innings and 13 starts. However, he crumbled from there, posting a 5.42 ERA across his last 16 outings. Perhaps coincidentally, his problems began with the crackdown on the use of foreign substances. When viewing Kikuchi's profile as a whole, home runs remain a significant problem (1.6 HR/9) and his walk rate also remains higher than would be desirable (9.3 BB%). However, by far the biggest problem for Kikuchi is the amount of hard contact he surrenders, highlighted by an 11% barrel rate, 47% hard hit rate, and 91.9 mph average exit velocity. Kikuchi agreed to a three-year, $36 million deal with the Blue Jays and will be pitching in the AL East for the foreseeable future.
On the surface, Kikuchi has had some rough sledding in his transition from pitching in Japan to pitching in the majors. Two consecutive season of bad ratios and a lack of wins while pitching for a perpetually rebuilding Seattle franchise. If you solely focus on the surface stats, you will miss the progress he is making as a pitcher. The southpaw added a new cutter in 2020 and made it his primary pitch, but like with anything new, it took some time getting used to. Kikuchi struggled with walks, but still struck out nearly a quarter of the hitters he faced and his expected stats do not look like they belong to a guy coming off a 5.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP season. The cutter helped him greatly against righties as their weighted on-base average against him dropped 75 points year over year. Seattle is not a great team, but Kikuchi is a good pitcher whose surface stats create a strong buying opportunity in 2021.
Kikuchi fell far short of expectations in his first major-league season, posting a 5.46 ERA and 1.52 WHIP after recording a 2.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over three seasons in Japan. The 28-year-old struggled to miss bats, posting a 16.1 K% that would have ranked fourth worst among major-league starters had he logged enough innings to qualify, along with a middling 8.8% swinging-strike rate. The Mariners took measures to limit Kikuchi's workload as he adjusted to the rigors of the MLB schedule. The southpaw served up a whopping 36 home runs despite throwing only 161.2 frames, with right-handed batters teeing off to the tune of .304/.359/.545 against Kikuchi. He figures to have a rotation spot on a rebuilding Mariners club, but there is little reason to think a big improvement is coming in his second big-league season. Throw your dart elsewhere.
A three-time All-Star in Japan (2013, 2017, 2018), Kikuchi was 14-4 with a 3.08 ERA, an 8.4 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 in 2018. He has a mid-90s fastball that he uses to set up a plus slider. While not regarded in quite the same star tier of Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish, the 27-year-old lefty still projects as at least a solid mid-rotation starter in MLB. Kikuchi signed a three-year, $43 million deal with the Mariners, with a $13 million player option for a fourth year and a team option for a four-year, $66 million extension after the first three years. He was dominant in 2017, logging 217 strikeouts in 187.2 innings -- both career highs. Kikuchi was similarly dominant in 2018 until a shoulder injury caused him to miss a month, and while he was able to return, he wasn't quite the same after that. He will be adapting to a new schedule where he'll pitch more frequently, so we should not expect the 6-foot hurler to log more than 160 innings on a rebuilding Mariners team.
Kikuchi attracted attention as a high schooler for his hard fastball and stated desire to forego a pro career in Japan and jump straight to the majors. That didn't happen, and injuries have so far deterred him from reaching his potential. Still only 24, Kikuchi showed signs of improvement in 2015 and if he can put together a couple of healthy seasons, he could establish himself as a quality lefty.
More Fantasy News
Tough-luck loser in quality start
PHouston Astros
September 25, 2024
Kikuchi (9-10) took the loss Wednesday against Seattle, allowing two unearned on four hits and one walk while striking out eight in six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine in quality start
PHouston Astros
September 20, 2024
Kikuchi did not factor into the decision in a win over the Angels on Thursday, allowing one run on five hits and one walk over six innings while striking out nine.
ANALYSIS
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Remains unbeaten with Houston
PHouston Astros
September 14, 2024
Kikuchi (9-9) picked up the win Friday, giving up three runs on three hits and two walks over seven innings in a 5-3 victory over the Angels. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Carried to eighth win by offense
PHouston Astros
September 8, 2024
Kikuchi (8-9) picked up the win Saturday, giving up four runs on seven hits over six innings in an 11-5 victory over the Diamondbacks. He struck out six without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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Racks up 12 punchouts in victory
PHouston Astros
August 31, 2024
Kikuchi (7-9) earned the win over Kansas City on Saturday, allowing one run on five hits and no walks while striking out 12 batters over seven innings.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Emphasizing slider
PHouston Astros
September 10, 2024
Kikuchi has been utilizing his slider as his secondary pitch during the second half of the season while relying less on the curveball, per Eno Sarris of The Athletic.
ANALYSIS
The curveball's usage rate for the season still sits at 18.5 percent, which is on par with 2023, but he's thrown it only a handful of times in each start since being acquired by the Astros. Kikuchi has also thrown his slider around 40 percent or more of late as he's primarily shifted to a two-pitch mix, especially versus left-handed hitters. The results speak for themselves thus far, as Kikuchi has a 3.07 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 53:10 K:BB across 41 frames in seven starts since the trade.
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